why aren't all 68 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI's Atlas browser will struggle against Google Chrome's Gemini integration
“Trying to go against Chrome is going to be really, really tough because Google does have the talent to build this into their product. They will, they already have Gemini baked in to some extent.”
Assertion Supported
Ten Million New Users Adopted Google Gemini for Image Capabilities
“Apparently ten million people who are new to Gemini use the app to use it for images.”
Opinion
Morris: Coding Is AI's Most Tangible and Financially Rewarding Application
“What OpenAI has been feeling, you know, in this competition with Gemini and Anthropix Claude is that it is perceived to a slip behind a little bit on coding. You know, that is the most tangible and financially rewarding real world application of these things s…”
Opinion
Ranjan Roy: Gemini within Gmail still fails at searching user email history
“Gemini within Gmail still is not good at searching through your Gmail, so the data problem of taking a massive data set like your entire email history is a lot harder than maybe we should give it credit for”
Opinion
Roy: Google faces a disconnect integrating personal data into Gemini in Gmail
“If you've used Gemini in Gmail, it still can't answer basic questions. So there's still, but yet Gemini standalone has gotten pretty damn good. So I still feel there's a disconnect in them tying together the personal data and context layer with the actual prod…”
Disclosure
DeepMind CTO: Gemini and Veo are our primary pathways to AGI
“So like with Gemini models, with VO models, all those kinds of generative AI models and exciting things that is happening there. That's our main line of AGI research that's going on.”
Disclosure
Brin: I work daily on Gemini pre-training and post-training models
“I'm across the street you know, pretty much every day and they're just people who are working on the key Gemini text models, on the pre-training, on the post-training, mostly those I periodically delve into some of the multimodal work”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: AI querying of unstructured company data will become table stakes
“The technology to actually, like, access large amounts of information, especially unstructured, and get an answer that is correct, they're avoiding hallucinations, whether that's through RAG-type technologies, whether that's other, like, it's gotten so, like, …”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Google disclosed Gemini has 350 million monthly active users
“We got the first disclosure of user numbers of Gemini. So, third, three hundred fifty million monthly active users. It's the first disclosure of the metric.”
Disclosure
Kurian: Google bundled Gemini into Workspace instead of selling separate subscriptions
“We made Gemini part of Google Workspace. Rather than requiring somebody to buy a separate subscription.”
Insight
Enterprise AI ROI requires targeted micro-models arbitrating between large foundational models
“Can you now devolve or basically create a micro model that's very targeted to your business? That basically was a recipe. So how do I look at what's happening within, you know, within a CHATGP versus Gemini? How do I start looking at Lama differently? And that…”
Disclosure
Murdock: Google's Gemini accepts and outputs both text and images natively
“One of the really important areas it's touching on is what we call multi-modality. It's a bit like the human senses you just described. We can kind of use all our human senses together and combined to achieve the goal where we're setting out to. So it will bri…”
Assertion Supported
Moore: Google has four standalone products on a16z's top AI list
“Like Google has four standalone products on our list, which if you had told me that 24 months ago when like Bard came out, the early version of Gemini, I would not have believed you.”
Assertion Supported
Manyika: Google releases new Gemini model generations every five to six months
“We now kind of on the cycle that Gemini models where every five, six months, there's the latest generation.”
Disclosure
Kripapuri: Promevo generated multi-year departmental OKRs with Gemini in one hour
“We actually use Gemini to actually feed this into it. We actually fed this into our plans for twenty-twenty-six, and the OKRs by department aligned with our overall strategic objectives for a three-year time zone and the twenty-twenty-six plan, we did this in …”
Opinion
Roy: Gemini's native integration inside Google Sheets functions terribly
“No, no, it's terrible. Like it's terrible. And it's so odd cause you can in Gemini access your sheets and do stuff to them much more effectively than if you are in Gemini in sheets And actually trying to do any kind of work”
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Google Gemini is leveraging 1.8 quadrillion tokens
“And again, like, I think what I saw was at Google. It was like 1.8 quadrillion tokens now being leveraged by Gemini.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: SimilarWeb Data Shows Gemini at 10.9M and DeepSeek at 16.5M Daily Visits
“Google's Gemini web traffic grew to 10.9 million average daily visits worldwide in March. That's up seven, four, 7.4% month over month, while daily visits to Copilot, that's Microsoft's bot, Increased to 2.4 million, up 2.1% from February. SimilarWeb also says…”
Assertion Supported
Levie: AI context windows improved 500x in 18 months
“And at the start of ChatGPT in let's call it November of twenty-twenty-two, the context window was somewhere on the order of about 4000 tokens. Just yesterday Sundar announced two million tokens on the latest Gemini model. So when you think about it there's li…”
Disclosure
DeepMind plans to release Gemini models in multiple sizes and scales
“We're hoping to develop models of different sizes and scales. So there'll be kind of different sizes of these Gemini models, which can then be applied to different use cases, depending on what's important.”