why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Gomez: AI Can Reach AGI Through The Internet Without Physical Embodiment
“I actually take, I think the less popular view, which is The internet is enough, and by observation, you can actually learn enough to be extremely, extremely compelling. I think that's if we're talking about AGI and doing things as well as humans do, I think t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pineau: Future of AI will be many specialized agents, not one superintelligence
“I tend to actually place my bet not on the fact that we're going to reach like a single super intelligent agent, but on the fact that we are much more likely to live in a future where there's going to be many agents for many things. And so some agents will abs…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gomez: Cohere Has Zero Examples of Enterprise Customers Replacing Staff
“I am not aware of it. I don't think I have any example of that happening. It's very assistive actually. So it's less about replacement. It's more about augmentation. Like at the moment, what everyone's building are tools to augment their workforce to make them…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: AI Scaling Gains Will Suffer Diminishing Returns
“I don't think within any achievable scaling up for humanity that will reach that tipping point. It just saturates the gains become much, much smaller. And so you're much less willing to want to pay double the price for a minute difference. But it is pretty con…”
Opinion
Gomez: AI Industry Is Building Useful Tools, Not an AGI God
“I don't know about God. Like, I don't think I'd ever use that term to describe what's coming. I think we're going to have some really powerful and useful tools. Emerge. I think that's what's coming. The idea that we're building AGI or something that's just gon…”
Insight
Pineau: AI ideas cannot stay proprietary while researchers move between labs
“And that's why, honestly, for many years I've been so much an advocate for open science. I just don't believe that you can keep these ideas boxed in unless you're willing to keep people boxed in, which we are not willing to do. And so I don't think we have a w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: AI Progress Will Be a Continuous Curve, Not a Step Change
“I don't see a step change coming, but I see a steady continuous course towards very high accuracy, very high reliability AI.”
Opinion
Gomez: Massive AI Models Are Useless If Too Expensive To Deploy
“My personal perspective is that, you know, building a massive model, it's not actually useful for the world if it's too big to be consumed, if it's too expensive to actually deploy.”
Insight
Gomez: Real Generative AI Value Comes From Boring Enterprise Productivity
“Maybe this stuff feels banal. Maybe productivity feels boring compared to some of the hype of AI, but it is the value. This is what we're trying to build for.”
Insight
Gomez: Frozen AI Tech Would Still Yield Incredible Economic Value
“Even if, you know, like just as a hypothetical even if the technology froze and what we have today is all we get, there's so much good to be done. There is so much work to go do. To implement this technology across the economy really boost productivity, drive …”
Insight
Pineau: Enterprise customers prefer smaller, cost-efficient models over frontier AI
“In reality, paying customers want like a good trade-off in terms of performance for efficiency. So, you know, we'll train bigger models, but we'll deploy smaller models because it gives us that trade-off. It's like good enough intelligence to get the job done.”
Insight
Pineau: AI sovereignty is about controlling model access and redundancy
“The other way to think about sovereignty that we're hearing a lot is that companies want a robust plan for AI. And so, you know, they want options. They may be using one model, but they actually want to have another model to be able to compare, to benchmark if…”
Insight
Chadwick: Multi-agent AI integration across functions maximizes company ROI
“The more that you can integrate agents and multi-agents
Across various functions within your companies, the greater ROI you're going to get, and I think that proves out at a smaller company.”
Disclosure
Chadwick: Cohere focuses on customer ROI over achieving AGI
“Our slogan is ROI over AGI. As long as our business customers are getting an ROI, that is what we're focused on.”
Assertion Supported
Cohere hits $100M ARR, falling short of its $450M investor pitch
“One from Reuters was that Cohere scales to a hundred million in revenue annualizes in May, Seemingly positive, exciting number, but then from the information is that Cohere, that basically they had shown investors they'd be making four hundred fifty million AR…”
Disclosure
Gomez: Synthetic Data Makes Up a Growing Portion of Cohere's Training
“More and more synthetic data is becoming a huge chunk of the data that we train on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: Next-Gen AI Models Will Break Far Less Frequently
“I expect them to be far more robust, reliable and I expect that they'll just be more capable. There's lots of things today that models break in unsupp, in surprising ways, and I think that's going to start to become rarer and rarer. We're going to be able to p…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: AI will become daily collaborative partners within two years
“In the next two years, I think we're going to start to see really compelling assistance. It won't just be little convenience functions or small features. It'll look a lot like a partner that you do work with. Someone that you interact with every single day and…”
Disclosure
Gomez: Cohere Targets On-Premises Deployments for Regulated Industries
“So Cohere has had a long time focus on, on-prem as well, because for a lot of regulated industries, like finance and healthcare, a lot of that data doesn't actually go on the cloud.”
Assertion Supported
Gomez: Cohere Powers Over 50 Applications in Oracle Enterprise Suite
“So there's some good examples of that with our partner Oracle, which they have this suite of applications, which basically power enterprise, HR, supply chain all of these sorts of back office functions. And we're powering over 50 different applications within …”
Disclosure
Gomez: Cohere is hiring PhDs to train AI models
“We're kind of at that level where we're currently hiring PhDs to teach the model in their specific domain.”
Assertion Supported
Gomez: RAG Creator Patrick Lewis Leads Cohere's RAG Efforts
“The guy who created RAG when he was at Meta is Patrick Lewis, and he leads our RAG efforts.”