The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026
“Blue Sky Is now north of twenty-five million users, and it's well on its way to, let's, let, let's say that by this time next year, maybe even sooner, Blue Sky is gonna be around a 100,000, Blue Sky will be around a hundred million users, which I looked up th…”
Ryan Broderick Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 9:06 Why The Costco Guys And Hawk Tuah Took Over The Internet
Opinion
A Large Portion of the Twitter Exodus Actually Went to Discord
“We think Twitter, there was a Twitter exodus and it went to like most people think the Twitter exodus went to blue sky and to threads and originally a little bit to mastodon. I would make the case that a lot of it went to discord.”
Tony Stubblebine Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 32:25 Medium CEO Tony Stubblebine: Here's How Writing Evolves In The AI Era
Insight
Avoiding engagement optimization limits social platform growth for apps like Bluesky
“I think we've seen some good players emerge in the social media space like a blue sky that doesn't seem to be focused on getting people to, you know, just spend as much time as possible on the platform all the time. That said, I think it limits their growth”
Max Zeff Oct 4, 2025 ▶ 8:02 Sora 2 & AI’s Slop Era, Death Of The Creator Economy?, Apple’s SmartGlasses Roadmap
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: No single platform will win the post-Twitter social media fragmentation
“With something like a blue sky, you have now have blue sky, you have threads, you have Instagram, you have Twitter, and instead of like one winning out, which there won't be an absolute winner, you're just going to have diluted experiences everywhere”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 15:09 Why The Costco Guys And Hawk Tuah Took Over The Internet
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: Bluesky's latest growth surge has staying power and threatens Twitter directly
“I think it does have staying power this time.”
Ranjan Roy Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 45:40 Is Generative AI Plateauing?, Booming Bluesky, Apple’s Smart Glasses Play
Insight
Hayes: Good Work Exists in Any Medium Despite Platform Incentives
“I think it's possible to do good work in any medium. Like, there are people who do great stuff on TikTok, great stuff on Instagram Reels. There are people posting on Blue Sky and X and Threads that I, like, learn from. There are amazing YouTube videos that I'v…”
Chris Hayes Feb 26, 2025 ▶ 1:28 The Formula for Capturing Your Attention, Price of Fame, & Algorithms as Editors — With Chris Hayes
Opinion
Roy: Bluesky restores genuine social networking missing from major platforms
“There's distribution, and then there's the actual kind of network and engagement side, and Blue Sky is the latter, which I think is good because there hasn't been that on any of the big platforms in a long time.”
Ranjan Roy Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 18:20 Why The Costco Guys And Hawk Tuah Took Over The Internet
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Bluesky user base soared to 15 million following the US election
“So blue sky is now up to fifteen million users, and it is it's really soaring in the wake of the election.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 45:09 Is Generative AI Plateauing?, Booming Bluesky, Apple’s Smart Glasses Play
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