why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026
“Blue Sky
Is now north of twenty-five million users, and it's well on its way to, let's, let, let's say that by this time next year, maybe even sooner, Blue Sky is gonna be around a 100,000, Blue Sky will be around a hundred million users, which I looked up th…”
Opinion
A Large Portion of the Twitter Exodus Actually Went to Discord
“We think Twitter, there was a Twitter exodus and it went to like most people think the Twitter exodus went to blue sky and to threads and originally a little bit to mastodon. I would make the case that a lot of it went to discord.”
Insight
Avoiding engagement optimization limits social platform growth for apps like Bluesky
“I think we've seen some good players emerge in the social media space like a blue sky that doesn't seem to be focused on getting people to, you know, just spend as much time as possible on the platform all the time. That said, I think it limits their growth”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: No single platform will win the post-Twitter social media fragmentation
“With something like a blue sky, you have now have blue sky, you have threads, you have Instagram, you have Twitter, and instead of like one winning out, which there won't be an absolute winner, you're just going to have diluted experiences everywhere”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: Bluesky's latest growth surge has staying power and threatens Twitter directly
“I think it does have staying power this time.”
Insight
Hayes: Good Work Exists in Any Medium Despite Platform Incentives
“I think it's possible to do good work in any medium. Like, there are people who do great stuff on TikTok, great stuff on Instagram Reels. There are people posting on Blue Sky and X and Threads that I, like, learn from. There are amazing YouTube videos that I'v…”
Opinion
Roy: Bluesky restores genuine social networking missing from major platforms
“There's distribution, and then there's the actual kind of network and engagement side, and Blue Sky is the latter, which I think is good because there hasn't been that on any of the big platforms in a long time.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Bluesky user base soared to 15 million following the US election
“So blue sky is now up to fifteen million users, and it is it's really soaring in the wake of the election.”