Disclosure certainty 4/5 debate potential 1/5

Parker: Trivariate tracks Chinese product prices at Target, Walmart, Costco

Adam Parker · Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research · Apr 8, 2025 · at 12:57

Adam Parker explains his firm Trivariate Research's methodology for measuring tariff pass-through to consumer goods.

0:00 / 0:12exact quote · 12.9s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“The kind of research we're doing is looking at, like, China products you can buy at Target and Walmart and Costco today, and then seeing what the price is gonna be next week, later this week, and see, like, how quickly, if at all, do the prices come up, right?”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Adam Parker

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parker: Nvidia will not miss near-term earnings, beats Mag 7 peers
“I don't think they're going to miss their earnings in the short term, so I sort of think NVIDIA is Better position than the other Mac seven in the short term.”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 2:16 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Opinion
Parker: Jensen Huang knows more about healthcare than most healthcare companies
“I think Jensen knows more about healthcare than most healthcare companies.”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 3:03 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Parker: Semiconductors will grow 5% to 8% above GDP over 10 years
“Semis grew about two percent above GDP for 30 years. I think they're gonna grow something like five to seven to eight percent above GDP, you know, if you look at the last two years, say, through the next eight.”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 4:30 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parker: Nvidia has 15-20% downside and 80-100% upside over 2-3 years
“I'm looking at, if I'm looking at this thing, I'm thinking, all right, maybe it has 15 to 20% downside and 80 to a hundred percent upside and a two to three year view for the best company with like a genius CEO and a product area that grows above GDP.”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 9:00 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Prediction Held up
Parker: Semiconductor stocks will outperform when the market recovers
“I guess what I'm convinced of, because of the fact that 19, the last 20 times when the market did recover tech work, because semis have sold off so much, and because they ultimately are growing faster relative to the economy than they did previously, that semi…”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 13:13 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parker: Tariffs will delay any improvement in Apple's product cycle
“I think this tariff thing is just bad for their growth rate and it definitely is going to cause like a delay to any cycle improvement.”
Adam Parker Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 18:35 Tariffs Impact on Tech Stocks: A Black Swan Event? — With Adam Parker of Trivariate Research
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 300 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.