Feb 7, 2025 · 1h 2m · big-technology
Boom Times For ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Deep Research, AI Super Bowl
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the Big Technology Podcast, Alex Kantrowitz and Ranjan Roy analyze ChatGPT's explosive user growth, the cost-efficiency disruption introduced by DeepSeek, and their hands-on testing of OpenAI's Deep Research tool. They evaluate how consumer branding, massive tech infrastructure capital expenditures, and Super Bowl advertising shape the evolving landscape of commercial artificial intelligence.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 49.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 2.1 Guest disagreement 2.4 Alex pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:18 Ranjan rejects Sam Altman's open-source pivot narrative
Ranjan visibly shakes his head and forcefully dismisses Altman's Reddit comments as PR-free pot-stirring that is impossible under OpenAI's $300B valuation goals.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 11:40 Alex pushes back on DeepSeek's user base framingAlex refuses Ranjan's claim that DeepSeek's 49 million daily visits were just tech nerds, noting that if true, ChatGPT's entire user base would only be triple that size.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 15:45 Ranjan outlines OpenAI's valuation constraintsRanjan explains why OpenAI cannot pivot to an open-source model strategy while seeking a $300 billion valuation from investors like SoftBank.
Alex holds their own ▶ 36:30 Alex synthesizes reasoning models and test-time computeAlex demonstrates subject matter expertise by dissecting the technological leap from token-by-token generation to reasoning agents using test-time compute.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyzing ChatGPT Traffic Growth and Competitor Stagnation | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Alex presents exclusive SimilarWeb web traffic numbers tracking ChatGPT's growth inflection against Bing and Claude. Ranjan politely rejects Alex's hypothesis that the Scarlett Johansson voice controversy triggered the traffic surge, attributing it instead to the broader 2024 hype cycle. | |
| The Threat of DeepSeek and AI Model Commoditization | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | Alex cites comparative traffic data showing DeepSeek gaining 49 million daily visits against ChatGPT's 139 million. When Ranjan argues the traffic surge is purely ephemeral nerd experimentation, Alex pushes back using basic math on ChatGPT's total addressable market. | |
| OpenAI Reddit AMA on Open Source and Chain of Thought | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Alex reviews Sam Altman's Reddit AMA statements on open source and chain of thought visibility. Ranjan dismisses Altman's remarks as unvetted thought bubbles that contradict OpenAI's financial mandate for a $300B valuation. | |
| Evaluating Project Stargate and the GPT-5 Product Roadmap | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | The hosts evaluate Kevin Weill's statements on Project Stargate compute scaling and OpenAI's product roadmap. Ranjan argues against industry dogma that compute alone dictates model quality, pointing to DeepSeek's low-cost training figures. | |
| Hands-On with ChatGPT Deep Research and Agentic Workflows | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Alex demonstrates comprehensive testing of ChatGPT Deep Research against Google's competing tool and synthesizes Ethan Mollick's analysis on reasoning models and agentic workflows. Ranjan highlights the vulnerability of white-collar analyst and consulting workflows while questioning consumer shopping agent value. | |
| Google's Gemini Rollout, Capex Spend, and Naming Conventions | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Alex highlights Google's $75B capex target and expresses exasperation over Gemini's convoluted model naming taxonomy. Ranjan plays the contrarian, playfully defending Google's chaotic branding history. | |
| Klarna's AI Layoffs Narrative and Big Technology Podcast Citation | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Alex highlights a New York Times feature citing his interview with Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski regarding AI-driven workforce reductions. Both hosts collaboratively celebrate that Ranjan's question led to the CEO openly admitting self-promotion. |
Statements from this episode (16)
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT web traffic flatlined for a year starting early 2023
“ChatGPT had been flatlining. The growth had just completely stopped. So you see a very, very quick run up to a hundred million Monthly users or on the chart that we're looking at now from similar web, they're measuring web traffic. So about two billion visits …”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT hit 3.7B monthly visits in late 2024, dusting Bing
“Bing had 1.5 billion per month in February, 20, 24. It had all of 1.85 billion per month in October, 20, 24. You look at ChatGPT starts with 1.6 billion and now it has 3.7 billion per month. So it's left Bing in the dust. And by God, I mean, the rest that you …”
Kantrowitz: DeepSeek overnight captured one-third of ChatGPT's daily traffic
“You see last week, so January, 28th, chat GPT at 139.3 web and mobile visits. Deep seek at 49 million. So it cut About, like, further than any other company has been able to cut into the lead of OpenAI, and it had about a third of the traffic that ChatGPT took…”
Kantrowitz: Open-source models are poised to surpass proprietary AI labs
“It put the whole proprietary model industry, the OpenAI's and the anthropics of the world On their back feet, understanding that they are about to be passed by open source, and they have to embrace it.”
Roy: OpenAI cannot achieve a $300B valuation if it open-sources models
“You're not gonna be a three hundred billion dollar company when you're open source like that.”
Roy: Displaying AI chain-of-thought reasoning drives user attachment and trust
“Deep Seek brought this to the general population, and it's brilliant because it makes people even more attached to these type of tools. Like, it makes them really think that there's thinking, which makes them more usable.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is unlikely to release GPT-5 in 2025 or ever
“Again, I doubt we're seeing GPT-V this year, or maybe ever.”
Roy: OpenAI's Deep Research is fantastic, but Operator is useless
“Operator is mesmerizing. And useless. Deep research is fantastic.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's Deep Research product is not a defensible moat
“So the question of, is it a moat? No, I don't think it's a moat.”
Roy: Siri's Apple Intelligence fails to find flight information in emails
“Apple intelligence cannot find our flight information in our email when you ask Siri, which they pitched us as agentic, and that's my momentary Apple intelligence bashing”
Roy: Deep Research eliminates jobs built on browser tabs and text synthesis
“So, so I think this meaningfully changes, especially any kind of job that involved opening a lot of browser tabs and copying and pasting text and synthesizing that text. That is completely changed, and there's no way to argue.”
Kantrowitz: Google plans $75B in 2025 capex, up from $32.3B in 2023
“The company is planning to spend seventy five billion on expenditures like growing its family of AI models this year. That's a considerable jump from the 32.3 billion on capex it spent in 2023.”
Roy: Big Tech pushes AI capex because only incumbents can afford it
“The entire, like, big technology industry has a vested interest because if compute and capex are critical, then only they can win. So this is gonna be really interesting to watch play out. That as long as compute and capex are critical, they're the winners.”
Kantrowitz: Google is on track to be best positioned in AI race
“I think Google is on its way to being the best position company in the AI race.”
Roy: Generative AI suffers a branding problem among non-tech consumers
“Oh, man, I go back and forth, though, because the other side of this is these, this generative AI has a branding problem. Like, when I still talk to most non-tech friends and family, they still associate generative AI content as bad. And, like, that's the whol…”