Jul 28, 2025 · 1h 2m · big-technology
Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Alex Kantrowitz and Financial Times Bureau Chief Stephen Morris analyze the anticipated launch of OpenAI's GPT-5, infrastructure bottlenecks facing massive data center projects like Stargate, and diverging quarterly earnings across tech giants Alphabet, Tesla, and Microsoft.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 43% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 6.9 Guest teaching 4.2 Guest disagreement 1.9 Alex pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 13:35 Morris firmly rejects easy AGI declarations citing legal and financial hurdles
Morris firmly rejects optimistic tech predictions about declaring AGI, laying out the corporate governance and contractual realities Microsoft holds over OpenAI.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 16:30 Kantrowitz takes the opposite side on OpenAI calling GPT-5 AGIKantrowitz refuses Morris's premise that OpenAI will stay restrained, arguing directly that Altman thrives on chaos and has already begun seeding the AGI narrative.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 51:45 Morris details the regulatory maneuver undermining Tesla creditsMorris educates the host on how the Trump administration effectively neutralized the EV credit market without legislation by setting non-compliance fines to zero.
Alex holds their own ▶ 44:54 Kantrowitz exposes the misleading benchmark in Microsoft's diagnostic orchestratorKantrowitz demonstrates technical mastery by dissecting the study's fine print, demonstrating that the claimed 4x boost was against unassisted doctors rather than standard LLMs.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anticipating GPT-5: Timeline, Hype, and Capabilities | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Kantrowitz initiates the episode with detailed reporting from The Verge and quotes from Sam Altman on Theo Von, checking real-time LM Arena leaderboard rankings. Morris provides industry context on OpenAI's $300B valuation and Microsoft tensions while confirming that GPT-5 hype is intense. | |
| GPT-5 Coding Benchmarks and Enterprise AI Competition | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Kantrowitz references fresh reporting from The Information regarding GPT-5's coding benchmarks against Anthropic. Morris details the structural business differences between OpenAI's consumer brand dominance and Claude's enterprise API focus. | |
| The AGI Threshold, Restructuring, and Microsoft Tensions | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | Kantrowitz explicitly rejects Morris's prediction that OpenAI will avoid declaring AGI, arguing Altman embraces chaos and is priming the public narrative. Morris counters by breaking down the legal, board, and $100B profit requirements Microsoft holds over OpenAI. | |
| Stargate Data Center Delays and Infrastructure Challenges | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Kantrowitz introduces the WSJ scoop on Stargate delays and Oracle CEO Safra Catz's statements that the entity is not yet formed. Morris analyzes the legal difference between listed company disclosures and private startup PR spin. | |
| AI's Power Demands and Pressure on the Electrical Grid | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Kantrowitz quotes FT reporting on record PJM electricity auction prices driven by AI data centers and questions environmental rollbacks on federal lands. Morris details the energy disparity between the US and China and notes the regulatory realities of nuclear and renewables. | |
| The International Math Olympiad AI Showdown | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz discusses the Math Olympiad benchmarks and then provides critical analysis on Mustafa Suleiman's medical diagnostic study, highlighting fine-print nuances in the 4x baseline doctor comparison. Morris agrees and emphasizes Microsoft's PR framing. | |
| Alphabet's Strong Earnings and Search Resilience | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Kantrowitz reviews Alphabet's earnings and double-digit search growth despite AI chatbots. Morris explains how AI Overviews expand the overall query pie even if Google loses a small percentage of total market share, while highlighting looming antitrust remedies. | |
| Tesla's Earnings Decline and Leadership Uncertainty | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Kantrowitz highlights Tesla's plummeting regulatory credit income following policy changes. Morris explains the subtle regulatory mechanism by which the administration zeroed out non-compliance penalties, rendering EV credits worthless without changing statutory law. | |
| Microsoft's Layoffs, Restructuring, and Offshoring | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Kantrowitz analyzes Satya Nadella's internal layoff memo at a near-$4T valuation company and probes the trend toward offshoring. Morris outlines the broader tech industry pivot toward overseas contractors to fund expensive elite AI talent. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Morris: Microsoft Insiders Doubt OpenAI Still Holds a Definitive Model Lead
“You talk to people now and including, you know, it's most vital stakeholder Microsoft. They're locked in these negotiations about open AI transforming itself to a for-profit entity. And these are very tense. But, you know, when you speak to people over there, …”
Kantrowitz: Gemini 2.5 Pro and OpenAI o3 Tied at Top of LMSYS Leaderboard
“I'm looking at LM Arena right now. Number one model. It's actually a tie between Gemini, 2.5 pro and OpenAI's O-three. OpenAI takes the next couple of spots with chat GPT-Four-O latest and 4.5 preview.”
Morris: Coding Is AI's Most Tangible and Financially Rewarding Application
“What OpenAI has been feeling, you know, in this competition with Gemini and Anthropix Claude is that it is perceived to a slip behind a little bit on coding. You know, that is the most tangible and financially rewarding real world application of these things s…”
Morris: Anthropic Wins Larger Enterprise API Contracts Than OpenAI
“Whereas Anthropica's claw doesn't just doesn't have the same brand recognition, but it has relentlessly gone after what they call enterprise customers, like big businesses, offers them access to their technology through APIs and has longer, bigger, and more vi…”
Morris: ChatGPT Is the Undisputed Winner in Consumer Chatbots
“Cause I think GPT is the, you know, undisputed winner of like the consumer chatbot wars so far.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Morris: Microsoft has struggled to build proprietary AI models
“They really haven't had much success building their own models, and a lot of what they're offering customers, their big millions of enterprise customers off their Azure platform is, is their own spin on OpenAI's underlying technology.”
Kantrowitz: There is a decent chance OpenAI calls GPT-5 AGI
“I think there is a decent chance. I'm not saying it's for sure going to happen. I think there's a decent chance that they are going to say it's AGI that GPT five is AGI and by they, I mean, open AI.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and SoftBank's Stargate has not closed a single data center deal
“Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi stood shoulder to shoulder With Sam Altman and President Trump to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center.”
Morris: OpenAI redefined Stargate to include any rented data center
“Part of the reason they're able to claim Stargate is off the ground is because they changed the definition of it. Previously, it had to involve open AI, Oracle, the data center provider, SoftBank, the financier and MGX, which is a huge New sovereign wealth or …”
Morris: US and Rest of World Lack Power for AI Data Centers, Except China
“There is just quite simply not enough power that exists in the United States or around the world or anywhere really apart from China to drive these data center ambitions. It just doesn't exist.”
Morris: China Will Power Future AI Data Centers Primarily With Solar
“This for, to a large part, is how China is going to power the future of data centers and AI with solar energy.”
Morris: Europe Risks Having No Meaningful AI Industry Due to Delays
“The concern in the other direction is that Europe will just fall so far behind these other countries. It won't have an AI industry that's meaningful in any sense. Which may already be the case.”
Morris: OpenAI front-ran Google's Math Olympiad announcement by three days
“And then you have open AI, like using the same system, not officially entering, not subjecting itself to the same type of controls and scrutiny and front running Google's announcement by three days.”
Morris: Suleyman's Healthcare AI Diagnosed Rare Ailments 4x Better Than Doctors
“And what they were able to do is take the most complicated sort of doc Like house level, you know, the TV show house level, weird medical ailments that affect one person every six years. And they were able to diagnose them, you know, at a rate like four times …”
Kantrowitz: Suleyman's Medical AI Barely Outperforms Standard LLMs Under Fair Conditions
“It improved performance by Forex over doctors who didn't have like access to Google and I guess their colleagues. But when you looked at the fine print, this orchestration system helped, but performed not Forex better than traditional LLMs, but like a few perc…”
Morris: AI Overviews and Mode Are Increasing Google Search Engagement
“The way that they've integrated AI into search, whether it's the overviews, the bullet points at the top of your results, or the AI mode, which you can click on, and then it just behaves like GPT, Gemini, or Claude. It's actually Boosting engagement. People ar…”
Morris: Google Will Lose Exclusive Safari Search Deal from Antitrust Remedies
“They're going to have to share more data with rivals. They're going to lose the right to be Apple's exclusive search engine provider on Safari across its devices.”
Morris: Tesla Would Have Lost Money in Q1 Without Regulatory Credits
“Tesla would have actually made a loss in the first quarter if it had not been for selling regulatory credits.”
Morris: Musk's Politics and Trump Fallout Make Him a Liability for Tesla
“There's no delaying that through his politics and his fallout with Trump, he's become a bit of a liability to the company.”
Morris: Tesla Board Is Preparing a New Pay Package for Musk
“We reported that far from looking for a new CEO the board is actually looking at giving him a new pay package.”
Morris: Suleyman has 6,000-7,000 Microsoft reports, poached 23 from DeepMind
“I think Mustafa Suleiman now has six or 7000 people reporting to him. And just this week, I reported that they'd poached another 23 from DeepMind.”
Morris: Top AI talent is receiving $100M to $300M compensation packages
“You know, these people, as you well know, do not come cheap, right? You know, at the top end, they're getting one, 203 hundred million. At the bottom end, they're still incredibly well compensated and it has to come from somewhere.”