Dec 24, 2025 · 40m · big-technology
2025 In Review, 2026 Predictions: Meta, NVIDIA, Tesla, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this special annual forecast episode of the Big Technology Podcast, host Alex Kantrowitz and Semafor Technology Editor Reid Albergati review the major AI milestones of 2025 and deliver strategic, company-by-company predictions for 2026 across Big Tech leaders.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 35.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.6 Guest teaching 2.0 Guest disagreement 2.0 Alex pushing back 2.3
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 8:10 Reid rejects the frontier model race premise
Reid forcefully dismisses the idea that tech giants need breakthrough frontier models, calling the superintelligence race a mix of corporate ego and Wall Street marketing rather than a product necessity.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 13:48 Alex directly challenges Reid on OpenAI model superiorityAlex openly refuses Reid's premise that OpenAI can afford to fall behind on foundation models, arguing that their investor narrative and brand magic depend entirely on frontier dominance.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 26:40 Reid explains the technological divergence between Tesla and WaymoReid provides technical depth on why Tesla was criticized for eschewing lidar and how building purely on vision pushed them toward end-to-end foundation model reasoning.
Alex holds their own ▶ 13:48 Alex leverages internal OpenAI reporting to prove frontier dependencyAlex demonstrates industry expertise by citing Sam Altman's internal remarks post-Gemini launch to prove that model leadership directly drives OpenAI's economic viability.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome and Setting the 2026 Prediction Stage | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Alex and Reid establish a collaborative tone reviewing 2025 tech themes, focusing on massive compute scaling and data centers. Alex provides a structured multi-year recap of generative AI's evolution since ChatGPT launched, which Reid enthusiastically validates. | |
| Framing 2026: Shift to Products and Potential Chaos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Reid frames 2026 as a plateau in raw model capability excitement in favor of consumer product deployment. Alex slightly counter-balances this framing by predicting 2026 will be defined by financial chaos and infrastructure overbuilding. | |
| Meta: Superintelligence Lab Tensions and Open Source Shifts | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Alex questions Meta's superintelligence ROI and model competitiveness post-Llama 3. Reid pushes back against the conventional race framing, arguing Meta only needs good-enough backend models for eyeball farming, prompting Alex to raise the threat of conversational AI companionship siphoning engagement. | |
| OpenAI: Transition from Research Lab to Consumer Giant | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | Reid argues OpenAI is strictly a consumer product company that does not need leading frontier models. Alex directly challenges this assertion, citing internal company reactions to Gemini and arguing that investor capital relies entirely on maintaining frontier leadership. | |
| Google: Gemini Evaluation, Search Disruption, and Ecosystem Strengths | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex critiques Gemini's user experience as underwhelming and superficial like an Axios summary. Reid educates on Google's broader strategic positioning, explaining their search cannibalization dilemma alongside deep moats in Waymo, quantum computing, and custom TPU inference infrastructure. | |
| Amazon: Conversational Commerce and Custom Trainium Silicon | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Alex pitches headlines regarding Amazon embedding conversational shopping with Anthropic/OpenAI and Tim Cook potentially stepping down from Apple. Reid builds on the Amazon custom Trainium chip dynamics and validates the strategic pressures facing Apple. | |
| Tesla and Autonomous Vehicles: FSD Breakthroughs vs. Waymo | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex shares his positive experience testing Tesla FSD in Dallas and asks why Waymo retains higher industry credibility. Reid explains the architectural divergence between Waymo's expensive lidar setup and Tesla's camera-based end-to-end foundation model approach. | |
| NVIDIA, Microsoft Copilot, Media M&A, and Anthropic IPO | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Alex runs through rapid-fire predictions covering Nvidia valuation volatility, Microsoft Copilot enterprise dissatisfaction, and an Anthropic IPO. Reid generally agrees while adding color on Office product stickiness and M&A regulatory shifts under the new administration. | |
| Wildcard Predictions: SPAC Resurgence, AI Companionship, and Data Privacy | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Reid offers contrarian wildcard predictions about SPACs returning for deep tech and state-backed ventures, which Alex playfully teases. Alex predicts a boom in human-AI romantic relationships, leading Reid to highlight imminent legal and privacy backlashes over cloud-stored chatbot confessions. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Albergati: Frontier AI models started multi-datacenter distributed training in late 2025
“These data centers were going to get so big that they're going to be, these large frontier models are going to be trained across multiple locations, which we started to see in like the last quarter.”
Albergotti: 2026 consumer AI will focus on products, not new models
“I think actually we're reaching this point in AI where it is still going to be the major topic of conversation, but I think the, I think some of the sort of novelty of it is, is wearing off now, and I think we'll see it kind of plateau, and then I think the pr…”
Kantrowitz: 2026 will bring an AI infrastructure shakeout and chaos
“I also think the shakeout is coming in a way. Like, to me, I think, twenty-twenty-six is really going to be a year of chaos. I mean, we're already starting to see some of this happen with Oracle and some of the other infrastructure builders, and the bets have …”
Albergati: Meta Tried to Acquire DeepMind Before Google Did
“Meta, you know, they were so early on AI, they tried to acquire DeepMind, you know, before Google did and then sort of just lost focus on it.”
Albergati: Meta's Future AI Models Will Be Closed or Backend-Only
“I think at this point, the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be, you know, they'll be closed models, just like open AI.”
Kantrowitz: Meta's Open Source AI Strategy Is Definitely Done
“I think they're not going to, their open source strategy is definitely done.”
Albergati: Meta Does Not Need Frontier AI Breakthroughs to Win Products
“I think at this point it's about products. And if people like the meta products that they put out there that are run on these foundation models, to be honest, they could probably be run on, on a lot of different models that are out there. I think it's partly e…”
Albergati: OpenAI chip push is about inference costs, not superintelligence
“So I think when you talk about like opening AI, building its own chips and data centers and all this stuff, that's all about like them for seeing the future where there's so many people using these things, those it's expensive to run in the data center. They'r…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI still needs model supremacy to sustain its narrative
“I do think they need the best models. I think their story and their story's important is predicated on them being out ahead of everybody else.”
Albergati: Traditional web search is going to be gone
“I think traditional search is, like, is going to be just Gone.”
Kantrowitz: Amazon is considering a $10B investment into OpenAI
“Amazon's eyeing this ten billion dollar investment into open AI, which is fascinating because they already have many billions in Anthropoc.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will announce departure on Apple Q1 earnings call
“Tim Cook announces on first quarter conference call that he's leaving the company at the end of the year.”
Albergotti: Tech reporters let political bias skew coverage of Tesla
“Tech reporters allow their personal feelings and, you know, political feelings, emotions to kind of like skew their analysis of these companies.”
Albergotti: NVIDIA Will Lose Market Share but Continue Overall Growth
“I think it's for sure going to lose market share, but I think the pie is growing so fast that there's just no way, there's no way they stop growing.”
Albergotti: Tech Will See Major Wave of M&A in 2026
“I think, like, one of my predictions for next year is, like, we're going to see a lot of M&A, and I think the Trump administration's really kind of sending a signal, like, we're not going to mess with your acquisitions anymore”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Will File S-1 or Set IPO Timeline in 2026
“My prediction is, while opening a dozen IPO, Anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S-One next year.”
Albergotti: SPACs will see a resurgence in 2026 in quantum and minerals
“Well, I think one that's going to be fun is, like, that we're going to see more SPACs next year. I think, yeah, I think we had Rachel Jones, my colleague, had a good story on how, you know, some of these, like, critical minerals companies are doing SPACs, and …”
Albergotti: Private equity will take private public SaaS companies disrupted by AI
“We'll see a lot of these companies that are being kind of disrupted by AI, SaaS companies that are public get taken private by private equity companies.”
Kantrowitz: There will be a love boom with AI companions
“I just think everyone's going to fall in love with their AIs. Not everyone, but I think there's going to be a love boom. That is my guess.”
Albergotti: AI chatbot conversations will create a massive legal discovery wave
“Like this is, remember when email was new and then all of a sudden like every lawsuit was like just a treasure trove of emails because people didn't realize that email was like forever. I think the same thing's gonna happen with this AI stuff. Like, it's just …”