May 27, 2026 · 54m · big-technology
Predicting the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs — With Dick Costolo
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Former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo joins Alex Kantrowitz on the Big Technology Podcast to analyze the upcoming IPO wave of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The discussion explores public market mechanics, AI infrastructure economics, leadership challenges, and the cultural shifts reshaping Silicon Valley.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 34.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.5 Guest teaching 3.8 Guest disagreement 1.5 Alex pushing back 3.0
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 43:34 Don't algorithm me
When Costolo dismisses Kantrowitz's feed analysis as the result of a weird personal algorithm, Kantrowitz playfully pushes back, refusing to let the guest deflect his point about video dominance.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 30:58 Challenging the national security framingKantrowitz directly counters Costolo's argument that data center backlash can be solved by warning about China, arguing college graduates worried about employment find geopolitical narratives totally detached from reality.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 11:33 The thermodynamic reality of space data centersCostolo corrects the misconception that space eliminates data center cooling issues, explaining the vast physical surface area required for heat dissipation in a vacuum and putting realistic timelines on the concept.
Alex holds their own ▶ 32:37 Dissecting AI platform economicsKantrowitz demonstrates sharp industry research by quoting Bill Gates' classical platform definition and contrasting it with data showing OpenAI and Anthropic capture 89% of startup revenue.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Market Realities: Twitter's IPO Lessons and Expectations Management | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kantrowitz leverages his background as a former beat reporter covering Twitter earnings to discuss how MAU targets shaped public perception. Costolo offers insider perspective on board-level earnings mechanics, explaining how meeting financial metrics still led to stock drops if user numbers missed. | |
| SpaceX and Elon Musk's Narrative-Driven Public Market Strategy | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz probes whether the market can sustain a multi-trillion valuation based solely on Elon Musk's narrative and challenges the feasibility of space data centers. Costolo explains the physics and logistical bottlenecks of orbital heat dissipation to illustrate why space data centers remain years away. | |
| OpenAI's Financial Commitments and Scrutiny on Sam Altman | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz pushes back on OpenAI scrutiny by recalling Sam Altman's argument about exponential growth curves and recent compute demand spikes. Costolo acknowledges the exponential reality but emphasizes that concrete balance-sheet commitments make OpenAI far more vulnerable to quarterly scrutiny than narrative-driven peers. | |
| Anthropic's Enterprise Strategy and the Tactical Advantage of IPO Timing | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Costolo details Anthropic's enterprise strategy and explains why going public first provides a tactical advantage in capturing available market liquidity. Kantrowitz prompts Costolo to compare Anthropic's underlying financial structures with OpenAI's. | |
| Market Liquidity Dynamics and Venture Capital Spillover | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | Kantrowitz challenges the notion of limited liquidity, suggesting institutional investors intentionally prepare massive cash reserves for premier AI IPOs. Costolo explains the portfolio allocation limits of institutional LPs and details how mega IPO distributions will revitalize early-stage venture capital. | |
| The Bipartisan Backlash Against AI Data Centers and Infrastructure | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Both analyze the bipartisan political backlash against domestic data center infrastructure, citing high-profile public appearances and polling data. Kantrowitz pushes back on Costolo's geopolitical China framing, arguing that abstract national security arguments fail to persuade anxious college graduates facing poor job prospects. | |
| AI Platform Economics, Enterprise Productivity, and Big Tech Dynamics | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz challenges the premise that AI labs operate as true platforms by citing Bill Gates' definition via Chamath Palihapitiya and revenue concentration data from The Information. Costolo accepts the premise but counters that enterprise productivity gains across Fortune 500 companies will generate enormous enterprise value regardless. | |
| Meta's Shifting Culture, Layoffs, and Internal Management Trust | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kantrowitz brings up an SF Standard quote illustrating Meta employee fatigue over rolling layoffs and cultural strain. Costolo draws on executive leadership experience and insights from Ben Horowitz to explain how serial reductions in force erode workforce trust when management relies on repetitive spin. | |
| The Evolution of Social Media Feeds, Product Instincts, and Advertising Models | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz refutes Costolo's assertion that Twitter remains primarily text-based by reading his live feed filled with video clips, humorously demanding Costolo not blame his personal algorithm. They then align on the resilience of the advertising model over subscription tiers. | |
| Silicon Valley's Wealth Gap, The Humanities, and Perspective on Success | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Costolo contextualizes Silicon Valley's wealth disparity through literature and philosophy, citing Winston Churchill, Virginia Woolf, and Charles Dickens to argue against destructive comparison cultures. Kantrowitz acknowledges the psychological perspective while highlighting practical economic pressures like escalating real estate costs. |
Statements from this episode (22)
Costolo: Founders going public must prepare teams for baseless 15-20% stock swings
“My advice to people who are having taken a company public before and are about to do it is you need to prep the team for, hey, we're about to go into a world where the price of the stock can change even though nothing particularly happened today. Like the stoc…”
Costolo: Twitter stock dropped on MAU misses despite beating revenue and EBITDA
“We could even have beat top line And EBITDA. And grown, you know, bottom line more than we said we were going to grow it. But if we missed an MAU number, the stock would be down.”
Costolo: SpaceX will acquire Tesla
“I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believes SpaceX will buy Tesla.”
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”
Costolo: Space data centers are at least 10 to 12 years away
“It's let's at least let's at least agree that it's at least 10 or 12 years away.”
Kantrowitz: Retail Tesla investors will move their capital to SpaceX
“I have this theory that the Tesla stock will, or the Tesla shareholders who've been through this bumpy ride with Tesla, like they've been told a couple of stories, Tesla, the electric car, the self-driving car, the optimist robot they will Move their money. Th…”
Costolo: OpenAI commitments exceed $1T without revenue to back them
“When you go and run on the numbers, it adds up to crazy over a trillion dollars worth of commitments that don't have the, you know, and you don't see the revenue model or growth yet to back it up.”
Costolo: OpenAI will pop on IPO day but face intense quarterly scrutiny
“It will still do really, really well on day one because people are going to be like, it's the next stigma. It's the next Cerebrus. I can't, I, you know, I haven't been able to buy secondary before I want to be an investor. You have to own one of these things, …”
Kantrowitz: SpaceX renting data centers to Anthropic signals giving up on AI
“Well, SpaceX has basically given up on the AI project, and I know that might sound extreme, but when you're renting data centers to Anthropik, you've given up.”
Costolo: Anthropic initially planned to keep Claude Code internal
“You know, they weren't even initially gonna release Claude Code. I mean, they initially, my understanding from folks inside Anthropic is we were just gonna be like, wait, this is like a huge competitive advantage. To be able to increase the rate of speed with …”
Costolo: Anthropic would benefit greatly from IPOing before OpenAI
“I think it would be great. I think it would be great for Anthropic if they can go first.”
Costolo: First mega-cap IPOs will soak up limited institutional liquidity
“Again, another, another advantage to going first and, or going second and not going third is there's not infinite capital out there. You're going to want to be in, you know, one or two of these things, and then probably, probably not all three Although we'll s…”
Costolo: Mega-cap IPO distributions will reignite early-stage VC fundraising
“You've got all these university endowments and, Venture LPs, et cetera, that haven't had their big liquidity events that are now gonna be, you know, flush with distributions of SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI that are gonna be able to turn around and pour a bu…”
Kantrowitz: Gallup Poll Finds 70% of Americans Oppose Data Centers
“Recent Gallup poll said seven out of 10 Americans don't want them.”
Kantrowitz: Data Center Moratoriums Will Be on the 2028 Ballot
“The idea that moratoriums could happen, maybe not tomorrow, but like it's going to be on the ballot in 2028. There are going to be pro moratorium candidates.”
Costolo: Small AI startups like Granola vastly outperform Apple Siri
“It's surprising how Siri for, Siri or iMessage, for example, have been so impossibly slow to keep pace with what appear to be things that AI startups with 10 or 12 people have been extraordinarily successful at, like text to speech or speech to text. Granola, …”
Costolo: Meta's rolling layoffs are surprising given Zuckerberg's strategic sharpness
“What I would say specifically about Meta is Mark is extraordinarily sharp and a strategic thinker, and the thing that I've been surprised about is the little bit of the death by a thousand cuts on the layoffs.”
Costolo: Twitter's text posts are extraordinarily resilient against TikTok and Reels
“I think Twitter's text posts are, have been extraordinarily resilient. It was like, it's like this, you know, it's ability to survive The changes in the way people use TikTok and reels and social media.”
Costolo: Nikita Bier's product instincts rival Kevin Systrom and Evan Spiegel
“Nikita has an extraordinary instinct for product that I think only, I would say, Kevin Systrom and maybe, you know, Evan Spiegel with his initial instinct for Snapchat stories are comparable.”