why aren't all 212 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Assertion Supported
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Two Delaware Judges Account for 55% of Super-High Fee Multipliers
“In the 20 cases where you have this super high multiplier 55% of the cases are just two of the judges, and there's something else that, that I learned in reading this, which I didn't know, but the chancellor who is one of the two, gets to pick who the cases ar…”
Assertion Supported
Madra: The three fastest AI inference companies are not NVIDIA
“The three fastest companies in inference right now are not Nvidia.”
Assertion Supported
Huang: xAI Brought 100,000-GPU Cluster from Delivery to Training in 19 Days
“NVIDIA, NVIDIA's infrastructure and computing infrastructure and all that technology, to training, 19 days.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Closed-source AI leaders are drafting EU AI regulatory language
“The leaders with their closed source AI models are spending more money than any startups ever spent. You know, in lobbying efforts, and they're drafting the language that ends up in the EU doctrine”
Assertion Supported
Huang: xAI Brought a 100k GPU Cluster Online in 19 Days
“Just to put in perspective, a 100,000 GPUs, that's You know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. A supercomputer, ah, that you would build would take normally three years to plan. And then they deliver the equipment, and it takes one…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Nvidia Agreed to Buy CoreWeave's Unsold Compute Capacity
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: California SB 243 creates private right of action against AI chatbots
“And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two 43, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Assertion Supported
Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance
“There was a release today of a Quen You know, thirty billion parameter model, which is performing as good as GPT-IV-O.”
Assertion Supported
Madra: Chinese open-source AI offers 90% of top quality at 90% discount
“One of the things that you see with the leading open source models now, which are the Chinese is 90% of the quality in terms of intelligence, but at a 90% price discount.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI is discussing launching an open-source model shortly, says Brad Gerstner
“OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B
“Meta has done this interesting structured deal.
They're buying 49% of the company.
they're paying a thirty billion dollar valuation.
So they're paying effectively fifteen billion.
They're avoiding regulatory scrutiny.
the CEO of scale is going to help lead e…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Salesforce Bans Training External AI Models on CRM and Slack Data
“Salesforce changed their terms of service, and in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought, and they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it, but they're telling, they're…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Chinese solid-state LiDAR costs $130 per car vs Waymo's $5,000
“Chinese LIDAR is solid state and designed very differently than the LIDAR that Waymo's using, and it's actually in China right now is, I think, being priced at like a 130 dollars a car, this solid state MEMS LIDAR, whereas the Waymo LIDAR is like 5000 dollars …”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: 40% to 50% of Top US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Private Delaware unicorns trading secondary shares face litigation risk
“Litigation around shareholder events are tied solely to public companies. That is not true. If you're incorporated in Delaware, you can be sued. You know, if your shares are trading more freely in the secondary market, you're at risk as well.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Trump Administration Repealed Biden AI Diffusion Rule in May 2025
“The Trump administration just repealed the Biden diffusion rule in May of 25.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: House renamed Invest America to 'MAGA account'
“In the House version of the bill, they renamed it the MAGA account, which stood for Money Account for Growth and Advancement.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts
“What he found was he compared a bunch of Delaware judgments with a bunch of judgments in the federal courts. And he looked at a bunch of different breakings, but one of the breaks was, you know, what's the frequency of awards seven times or higher? And what ar…”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: The US banned Nvidia H20 chip exports to China
“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Huawei AI chips already surpass Nvidia's H20 performance
“And we just unilaterally disarmed around that in a way that doesn't even advantage us against Huawei because their chips are already surpassing the H.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: China No Longer Depends on Nvidia for AI Inference
“BYD is designing a better car, and CATL is designing a better battery, and their glow, their vertically integrated supply chain around semiconductors no longer is dependent upon NVIDIA for inference. Now they're running inference at DeepSeq on the Ascend nine …”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Public companies report Google organic clicks down 20-40% YTD
“We have public companies now reporting, that are reporting their Google organic clicks are down 20 to 40% year to date.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: DeepSeek innovated by separating parameters to run more experts
“Deep Seek had put more experts simultaneously against a problem. They were able to do that because they figured out a way to
separate the parameters and work on things with smaller parameter counts faster, which no one else had done before. And so you end up…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia's CUDA framework for low-level optimization
“One, it's validated now that they went around CUDA, and I just think that's interesting.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Congress plans federal preemption and moratoriums on state AI laws
“I coordinated some meetings this weekend between him and a lot of CEOs of leading AI companies. And there is a plan by Congress on the one hand to have federal preemption. Clearly this is a matter of interstate commerce. So we should have federal preemption, b…”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: NVIDIA trades around 30 P/E compared to Cisco's 2000 peak
“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: AI clusters scaling to 1 million GPUs are already being planned
“Now, I think these things, Bill, are already being planned and built.”
Assertion Supported
Zawalick: PG&E Applied for 20-Year NRC License Renewal for Diablo Canyon
“Unit one's current license expires November second of 2024.
And it'll be really interesting to look at what's going on November third and fourth with our grid had we taken unit one off.
So we're right there, right?
unit two's current license expires in August…”
Assertion Supported
Zawalick: All US commercial nuclear waste fits on one football field
“You roll up all of that footprint, and you got to see it's very small and you take all of the over hundred units in the United States, it would fit in the size of a football field up to the goalposts.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Nuclear startups pay $60M in NRC fees for first approval
“The NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the Regulatory Commission here in the US is fee-based, and all the people that are playing in this market I've talked to say you're probably sixty million to first approval. Just on fees, the startup's gonna pay…”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Federal $42B rural broadband program has connected zero people
“So I, according to Brendan Carr, who is one of the four FCC commissioners, he says, Zero. Zero people have been connected”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: OpenAI Reaches ~$2B, Anthropic ~$100M, and Perplexity ~$25M from Subscriptions
“Playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about two billion Anthropics about a hundred million in perplexities at like twenty-five million.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Cloud providers are paying revenue shares to open-source model creators
“I can definitely confirm that the data clouds are paying a revenue share. To the open models.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: 83% of CIOs plan to repatriate workloads on-prem
“So this among enterprise CIOs moving back to hybrid and on-prem, the number was the 83% of respondents said that they were going to repatriate at least some of their workloads. Right. Back to on-prem and that was up from 49% or 43% in 2020.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla has not applied for regulatory driverless permits
“Tesla's, one, they haven't even applied for those things, but we don't have them driverless on the road yet.”
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla pay package plaintiff lawyers are seeking $5B–$6B in fees
“The lawyers that, that pursued this case are asking for five or six billion dollars in payment.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Meta completely recovered from Apple privacy changes using AI
“Basically, because of AI, they've been able to backfill that monetization completely. Nobody thought, no investors thought that was going to be the case 18 months ago. So their core business got a lot stronger.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: OpenAI has caused almost no share shift from AWS to Azure
“We've seen almost no share shift from AWS to Azure as a result of OpenAI.”
Assertion Supported
Turley: About 10% of the world currently uses ChatGPT
“We've got about 10% of the world coming to us now.”
Assertion Supported
Turley: AI demand and token consumption increase despite falling prices
“When you just look at token consumption per user especially in the enterprise too, which is, you know a massive opportunity. You see a lot of very GPU hungry, hungry workflows, and yes, demand keeps going up even as prices go down.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: OpenAI non-profit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock
“The nonprofit is already capitalized with a hundred and thirty billion dollars, a hundred and thirty billion dollars. Of open AI stock.”