The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 728 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 37 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: AMD will see less AI revenue from Microsoft and Meta in 2025
“Yes, I think they'll have they'll have a lot less success with Microsoft than they did this year. And they'll have less success than they did with Meta than they did this year.”
Patel: Apple accounts for over 70% of Google's TPU rental revenue
“There's only one company accounts for over 70% of Google's revenue from TPUs as far as I understand, and that's Apple.”
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Patel: Google TPU purchases will pause for six months over space limits
“Like in the next six months there is a bit of a slowdown in Google TPU purchases because they have no data center space. They want more. They just literally have no data center space to put them.”
Patel: Only 5 to 10 of the 80 GPU NeoClouds will survive
“80 NeoClouds are not going to survive. Maybe five to 10 will. And that's because five of those are sovereign, right? And then the other five are like actually like market competitive.”
Nadella: Hyperscale AI infrastructure will not be a winner-take-all market
“I don't think it's going to be winner-take-all, right? Because a lot, there may be some categories that may be winner-take-all. For example, on the hyperscale side, absolutely not, right? I mean, the world will demand, you know, even ex-China, ah, multiple pro…”
Nadella: Traditional search will break once commercial intent migrates to AI chat
“That shift, I think, is what's happening universally. And we are away, maybe one or two of these agents for shopping or travel away from even some of the commercial queries. That's the time when the dam breaks, I think, on traditional search, when some of the …”
Nadella: Google makes more money on Windows than all of Microsoft
“I mean, I always say Google makes more money on Windows than all of Microsoft. I mean, literally.”
Nadella: Apple and Google will block AI over-the-top computer use
“At the end of the day, the user will be in control on an open platform like Windows. And I'm sure Apple and, you know, Google will have a lot more control, so they won't allow it.”
Nadella: Unlikely any foundation model achieves a two-year lead again
“I don't think there will be ever again maybe a two-year lead like this. Who knows? We, you know, it's all, you say that and somebody else, you know, drops some sample and suddenly blows the world away. But that said, I think it's unlikely that that type of, yo…”
Gurley: 35% of Chinese university grads study STEM versus under 10% in US
“The number of graduates in China's University system that are STEM is 35%, and that number is below 10 in the US.”
Gerstner: 3% annual spending cuts would balance US budget by 2029
“Even at three and a half percent growth for the next four years, you balance the budget in 2029 by simply reducing the size of government three percent a year back to trend line.”
Gerstner: Newsom's anti-business policies will cost Democrats future elections
“The stuff that Newsom's doing is just the same, same stuff that shrunk the party and cost Democrats future elections.”
Gerstner: 2025 AI model gains will increasingly come from post-training and inference
“So I think at least As we look at 2025 for NVIDIA, for the supply chain, and for the model companies themselves, we think we're going to continue to see improvements in the models. It won't all come from pre-training. We think there's an increasing amount comi…”
Gerstner: Next giant AI breakthrough will be agents and actions
“We will have better and better models, but I think the next giant breakthrough will be with agents and their actions.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 delivered 100x improvement in MPCI
“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 13 will deliver another 10x MPCI improvement
“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”
Gerstner: Autonomous shift could shrink global automakers from 20 to 3 or 4
“I think there is a path where this is that event, that extinction event, tectonic event that leads, takes us from 20 OEMs down to three or four. And if we sat here in five or six or seven years and we were on a path to three or four global automakers, it would…”
Gerstner: AI-driven corporate headcount reductions will continue for a decade
“I just think this is the beginning of a drumbeat that we're going to hear for a decade.”
Gurley: Over 1,000 private tech unicorns cannot currently raise up-rounds
“So that means there's over a thousand private unicorns that, that are somewhat stuck right now and could not raise enough rounds.”
Gerstner: Huang believes NVIDIA can triple revenue with 25% headcount growth
“He thinks they can three X, you know, the top line of the business while only adding 25% more humans because they can have a 100,000 autonomous agents doing things like building the software, doing the security, and that he becomes really a prompt agent, not o…”
Gerstner: AI clusters scaling to 1 million GPUs are already being planned
“Now, I think these things, Bill, are already being planned and built.”
Gerstner: xAI will be one of the top three or four frontier AI players
“If scaling these data centers is a key competitive advantage to winning an AI, right? You, like you absolutely cannot count out X.AI in this battle. They're certainly gonna have to figure out, you know, something with the consumer that's gonna have a flywheel …”
Gerstner bets reliable AI agents will autonomously book hotels within two years
“Over, under, I'll set the line at two years until we have an agent that has memory and can take action.
And the canonical use case, of course, that I used was that I could tell my agent, book me the Mercer Hotel next Tuesday in New York at the lowest price.
An…”
Gurley bets trustworthy, transactional AI agents will take more than two years
“Could you provide it at scale in a trustworthy way where people are allocating their credit cards to it?
That might take a little longer.
Okay, so over under Bill on two years.
I mean, I, I'm gonna get you action either way.
But what's the test?
The demo?
I th…”
Madra predicts multi-agent systems will enable transactional AI within one year
“You can have a thousand agents working together.
You can have one that's making sure that the credit card charge is not too big.
You can have another one to make sure that the address is right.
You can have another one checking against your calendar.
And so al…”
Huang: NVIDIA delivers 2x-3x performance and cost improvements every single year
“We're trying to build a brand new one every single year, and every single year we deliver two or three times more performance. As a result, every single year, we reduce the cost by two or three times. Every single year, we improve the energy efficiency by two …”
Huang: Almost every software application will be highly machine-learned in the future
“Almost every single application, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Photoshop, Premiere, you know, AutoCAD. You give me your favorite application. That was all hand, hand engineered. I promise you it will be highly machine learned in the future.”
Huang: $1T in legacy data center infrastructure must be modernized in 4-5 years
“And we just know that we have a trillion dollars with the data centers that we have to modernize. And so right now as we speak, if we were to have a trajectory over the next four or five years to modernize that old stuff, that's not unreasonable.”
Huang: The new market for AI factories will probably reach a few trillion dollars
“So there's a whole layer of computing fabric, a whole layer of what I call AI factories that the world has to make that doesn't exist today at all. So the question is how big is that? Unknowable at the moment, probably a few trillion dollars.”
Huang: Asynchronous distributed computing and federated learning will be invented for AI
“My sense is that distributed training will have to work. And my sense is that, that distributed computing will be invented. And some form of federated learning and distributed, you know asynchronous distributed computing is going to be discovered.”
Huang: NVIDIA could not design Hopper, Blackwell, or Rubin chips without AI agents
“Our cyber security system today can't run without Without our own agents. We have agents helping to design chips. Hopper wouldn't be possible. Blackwell wouldn't be possible. Ruben don't even think about it.”
Huang: People will all become CEOs of AI agents
“And so, so I think that that's the thing that, that people are going to learn is that they're all going to be CEOs. They're all going to be CEOs of AI agents.”
Huang: NVIDIA's Nemotron is the world's best reward model
“Our model, Nemo Tron, is, is the best model in the world for reward systems. And so, it is the best critique.”
Gurley: Requiring $500M revenue for IPOs will create excessive zombiecorns
“If that becomes true, if that kind of Path dependency is, is cast upon every venture capital company that comes along. You're going to end up with an excessive amount of zombie corns because previous to this evolution in the late stage markets, plenty of compa…”
Gerstner: The entire Nvidia and AI infrastructure supply chain remains undersupplied
“We think the entire NVIDIA and AI infrastructure supply chain is going to continue to be under supplied.”
Zawalick: PG&E Applied for 20-Year NRC License Renewal for Diablo Canyon
“Unit one's current license expires November second of 2024.
And it'll be really interesting to look at what's going on November third and fourth with our grid had we taken unit one off.
So we're right there, right?
unit two's current license expires in August…”
Zawalick: All US commercial nuclear waste fits on one football field
“You roll up all of that footprint, and you got to see it's very small and you take all of the over hundred units in the United States, it would fit in the size of a football field up to the goalposts.”
Gurley: Nuclear startups pay $60M in NRC fees for first approval
“The NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the Regulatory Commission here in the US is fee-based, and all the people that are playing in this market I've talked to say you're probably sixty million to first approval. Just on fees, the startup's gonna pay…”
Gerstner: Decommissioning Diablo Canyon causes California to import more coal power
“Ironically, right, if you decommission Diablo, you know what the state does? It imports more coal-produced power.”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gurley: Federal $42B rural broadband program has connected zero people
“So I, according to Brendan Carr, who is one of the four FCC commissioners, he says, Zero. Zero people have been connected”
Gurley: OpenAI Reaches ~$2B, Anthropic ~$100M, and Perplexity ~$25M from Subscriptions
“Playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about two billion Anthropics about a hundred million in perplexities at like twenty-five million.”
Gurley: OpenAI's 12-Month Subscription Retention Rate Is Around 35%
“On the 20 dollar thing, but at 12 months, the retention even in OpenAI is like 35%, so I doubt that anyone that is looking at that, even at two billion, Feels great about that as a durable business model”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”