The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Gurley: Tesla pay package plaintiff lawyers are seeking $5B–$6B in fees
“The lawyers that, that pursued this case are asking for five or six billion dollars in payment.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Meta completely recovered from Apple privacy changes using AI
“Basically, because of AI, they've been able to backfill that monetization completely. Nobody thought, no investors thought that was going to be the case 18 months ago. So their core business got a lot stronger.”
Gerstner: OpenAI has caused almost no share shift from AWS to Azure
“We've seen almost no share shift from AWS to Azure as a result of OpenAI.”
Gerstner: Tech IPO Dam Will Break in Second Half of 2024
“I think you're gonna see the dam really break on this year, particularly in the back half of this year. And the reason is because people gotta raise capital, right?”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates in 2024
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year, right?”
Gerstner: Four or five companies will reach GPT-4 performance in 2024
“I think, you know, a lot said in a tweet yesterday, we're going to have four or five companies that hit chat GPT four level this year with their models. I think that's exactly right.”
Baker: Grok 4.5T parameter model is injecting Cursor data into pre-training
“The Grok 4.5 trillion parameter model is training. One would hypothesize based on scaling laws that that will might be a better base model. And then the cursor data is being injected into the pre-training process, not just reinforcement learning.”
Turley: About 10% of the world currently uses ChatGPT
“We've got about 10% of the world coming to us now.”
Turley: AI demand and token consumption increase despite falling prices
“When you just look at token consumption per user especially in the enterprise too, which is, you know a massive opportunity. You see a lot of very GPU hungry, hungry workflows, and yes, demand keeps going up even as prices go down.”
Gerstner: OpenAI non-profit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock
“The nonprofit is already capitalized with a hundred and thirty billion dollars, a hundred and thirty billion dollars. Of open AI stock.”
Gerstner: California AG will not object to OpenAI restructuring
“The California attorney general said they're not going to object to it.”
Altman: Cost per unit of intelligence has dropped roughly 40x annually
“This unbelievable reduction in cost per unit of intelligence, let's say it's been averaging like 40 X for a given level per year”
Gerstner: OpenAI revenue share sends billions annually to Microsoft
“So, you have the value in the rev share, billions per year going, going to Microsoft.”
Gerstner: OpenAI has a $250B Azure compute commitment with Microsoft
“You have the profit you make off the two hundred and fifty billion dollar of the Azure compute commitment from OpenAI.”
Gerstner: Circle and Tether issue $15B monthly, becoming top Treasury buyers
“Circle and Tether are issuing fifteen billion of stable per month and becoming the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries.”
Gerstner: 65M children qualify for Invest America accounts, $1,000 for under-twos
“So at the start today, there are sixty-five million kids in the country qualified for an Invest America account. Every kid under the age of 18. And every kid under the age of two will automatically get a thousand bucks in their account, right?”
Gerstner: Over 40% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from AI inference workloads
“Over 40% of your revenue today is inference.”
Huang: OCI, OpenAI, and SoftBank have contracted 5 to 7 gigawatts
“The second is the OCI build out. And I think there's some five, six, seven gigawatts about to be built out. And so working with OCI and OpenAI and SoftBank to build that out. Those projects are contracted.”
Huang: Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu plans to 10x data center power by 2030
“Eddie, last night, Eddie Wu at Alibaba said, between now and the end of the year, and excuse me, now and the end of the decade, they're going to increase their data center power by 10 X, right?”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Wu: Los Alamos OpenAI supercomputer deployment is shared with Lawrence Livermore and Sandia
“The other cool thing is it's actually being shared between Los Alamos and some of the other labs Lawrence Livermore Sandia as well because it, it's the supercomputer setup where they can all kind of connect with it remotely.”
Gurley: China's Politburo Comprises Engineers While Washington Employs Lawyers
“The vast majority of the political borough are former engineers. So this is the ruling party within China and that the vast majority of the people in Washington DC are former lawyers.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Gerstner: Only children born after Jan 1, 2025 receive $1,000 Treasury seed
“All kids under the age of 18, that's sixty five million kids are eligible... But only children born after January one, 20, 25, get the thousand dollars from treasury”
Gerstner: Mag-7 revenue grew 20% compounded while OpEx grew 2%
“If you look at the Mag-seven over the last three or four years, they've grown over 20% compounded, but the number of employees, their OpEx, is growing at two percent.”
Thomas Laffont: AppLovin doubled revenue while cutting headcount over 35%
“At the same time as AI comes in, now the company's lean and mean, innovates, outcompetes companies like Google and Meta, doubles the size of the company as the employee count is down over 35%.”
Laffont: Anthropic grew from $1B to $3B in revenue within five months
“We've seen Anthropic, we have data in here that I think it took him about a year to get to their first billion in revenue.
It took him three months to get to the next billion, and then it took him two months to get to the one
The next billion after that, right…”
Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google
“Open AI reached you know, four hundred billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google. Right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.”
Gerstner: Around zero percent of leading-edge semiconductor chips are fabricated outside Taiwan
“Today, we have about zero percent of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan, right? Almost nothing in the United States.”
Gurley: Manus AI Operates Only on US Models, Not DeepSeek
“So, first of all, they've only operated on U.S. Models. They're a wrapper company. They don't have a foundational model, and they've only operated on top of U.S. Models, so they've actually never operated on top of DeepSeek or any of the other models we were j…”
Gurley: Manus stores all customer data on US hosting servers
“They host all of these on us hosting services. And so they're not actually operating any of their customers workloads in China at all. And the data is all resident on those us hosting companies servers. And so there's no customer data in China either.”
Gerstner: Around 50% of US AI researchers are Chinese
“I saw a stat the other day. I think 50% of researchers, AI researchers in the United States of America are Chinese.”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gurley: China has four deep-pocketed open-source AI models
“Deep Seek, Led to Quinn. Led to Xiaomi has a, has their own model as well. They've all gone open source. And so this will be the fourth deep pocket funded model in China that are all open source.”
Gerstner: China has 100 nuclear power plants under construction
“There are a hundred nuclear power plants under construction in China. Power is not their limit.”
Gurley: South Korea, China build nuclear power at one-fourth US cost
“Korea and China are delivering fission nuclear at one-fourth the price we are, and I think that Korea example, South Korea, is very important because that is a democracy. So here's one country that's authoritarian, one that's a democracy, and they're both achi…”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters
“What I'm hearing, Bill, is that it'll be a four hundred billion parameter model, It'll use like, it'll be a mixture of expert model using, you know, 50, 60 70 experts. It's gonna have huge context window, like ten million context window, you know, and it's gon…”
Gerstner: Trump Will Declare Victory on Vietnam Tariffs Before April 9
“So we're gonna hear all these ad hoc negotiations going on, some of which I'm sure, like Vietnam, he'll declare victory on even before we get to April ninth, because they've already capitulated on a bunch of tariffs.”
Gerstner: Investors should brace for real, structural tariffs within three months
“So I just think that one should brace over the next three months. I think these tariffs are very real. They're structural and the president is committed to them.”
Gurley: DeepSeek is pricing API inference at one-twentieth of OpenAI
“If you look at the models that are apples to apples on the API right now, that, that DeepSeq's pricing about one-twentieth of OpenAI.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Is Already Running Workloads Out of Abilene Facility
“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”
Gerstner: xAI will launch Grok 3 trained on world's biggest cluster
“We're going to see he's going to launch Grok three here. I think they're going to have the output the first training run on the biggest cluster in the world. And we're excited to see what that yields from my own perspective.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Haas: OpenAI will have operational control of the Stargate project
“And the operational control will be from OpenAI. So they'll, they'll call the shots relative to all the things relative to the operation.”
Gerstner: Nvidia inference revenue is upwards of 50% of total revenue
“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”
Gerstner: Microsoft is on an $80 billion annual CapEx run rate
“In their most recent quarter, they did about twenty billion in capex bill, and you just, you know, he said earlier in the year, which caused, or a couple of days ago, which caused a bit of a kerfuffle that they expected to spend eighty billion in capex this ye…”