The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Nadella: Only four AI products qualify as true hit applications
“In fact, we talk a lot more about AI scale, but there is not that many hit apps, right? There is ChatGPT, GitHub Copilot, there's Copilot, and there's Gemini. I think those are the four. I would say in a DAO, like, is there anything else that comes to your min…”
Satya Nadella Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 44:53 Satya Nadella | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
Levie: AI coding tools deliver a 30% to 50% programmer productivity boost
“Yeah, so I, I'm probably more in the, you know, 30 to 50% camp in, like, in the best case scenario right now with where we're at, and I think still coding is the number one use case”
Aaron Levie Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 1:05:07 BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & Aaron Levie | Software Valuations, Earnings, Immigration | E02 · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Expecting GitHub Copilot-level gains across general knowledge work is premature
“So this idea that, that you're going to get a, you're going to get a GitHub co-pilot effect for all forms of knowledge work, at least in the near term, it's way too early to be kind of jumping to that.”
Aaron Levie Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 1:06:01 BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & Aaron Levie | Software Valuations, Earnings, Immigration | E02 · Bg2 Pod
Disclosure
Nadella: Seeing Codex in GitHub Copilot triggered Microsoft's 1-to-10 OpenAI investment
“Then seeing the early codecs inside of Copilot, inside of GitHub Copilot, and seeing just the code completions, and seeing it work, that's when I would say we, I felt like I can go from one to 10. Because that was the big call, quite frankly. One was controver…”
Satya Nadella Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 34:45 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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