The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 31:26 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Turley: About 10% of the world currently uses ChatGPT
“We've got about 10% of the world coming to us now.”
Nick Turley Mar 15, 2026 ▶ 7:51 ChatGPT – The Super Assistant Era | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Laffont: Anthropic grew from $1B to $3B in revenue within five months
“We've seen Anthropic, we have data in here that I think it took him about a year to get to their first billion in revenue. It took him three months to get to the next billion, and then it took him two months to get to the one The next billion after that, right…”
Thomas Laffont Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 41:39 Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Generative AI apps show around 40% weekly engagement
“If you look at these generative AI apps, character tops out at about 64%, but if you look at Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, they're about 40%. So much lower engagement you know, than you know, internet consumer apps.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 1:07:48 Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Wu: GPT-4 already existed internally at OpenAI by September 2022
“The first one was right when I joined the company in September, 20, 22. We, it was pre-TiGPT. But at the time, GPT-IV already existed internally.”
Sherwin Wu Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 1:06:47 Inside OpenAI Enterprise: Forward Deployed Engineering, GPT-5, and More | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Wu: ChatGPT is roughly the fifth largest website in the world
“ChatGPT obviously is really, really, really big now. [233] Sherwin Wu: It's I think like the fifth largest website in the world.”
Sherwin Wu Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 3:51 Inside OpenAI Enterprise: Forward Deployed Engineering, GPT-5, and More | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Reasoning models dwarf single-shot ChatGPT in compute consumption
“You have these O series models, and now you have deep reasoning out of Google that launch this whole different vector of scaling intelligence and reasoning. But the thing about those, Bill, as you well know, is they are compute hogs. Right? The number of token…”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 31:21 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Wu: OpenAI's original product was its developer API, not ChatGPT
“When I joined OpenAI around three years ago to work on the API, it was actually the only product that we had. [178] Sherwin Wu: So I think a lot of people actually forget this, where the original product for, from OpenAI actually was not ChatGPT. [183] Sherwin…”
Sherwin Wu Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 2:49 Inside OpenAI Enterprise: Forward Deployed Engineering, GPT-5, and More | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
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