The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

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100%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Brad Gerstner (19)Bill Gurley (6)Sam Altman (3)Jensen Huang (3)Ali Ghodsi (2)Gavin Baker (1)Elon Musk (1)Dylan Patel (1)Andrew Fox (1)
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Prediction Held up
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Sam Altman Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 28:41 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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