The Exchanges

Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on four things from 1 to 5: directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow), precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean. Full method →

Rene Haas no published score: only 4 usable exchanges on raw tape, and a fair score needs 8+ · coarse estimate ≈4.0/5 from 4 raw tape exchanges record → ← everyone

Every exchange below was scored with names hidden, four dimensions each from 1 to 5. An exchange's score is 0.30·directness + 0.30·coherence + 0.25·precision + 0.15·compression. The published score averages the raw tape exchange scores and shrinks small samples toward the cohort mean, so five great answers can't beat twenty good ones. Produced feed rows count only toward coarse estimates, never toward a full score.

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Answered raw tape D 5 · C 5 · P 5 · Cm 4 4.85

Q Can you, can you think of an entity, like a comparable entity in the past? I, I'm, I'm having a hard time, like, imagining what that, what Brad just described actually is.

A I don't think there is a good comparison on this bill, because when you, when you just think about the amount of capital that's required, it's bigger than anyone, right? So it, this, this required a very, very novel set of partners, To come together, both with a, a big vision, uh, a, a, a large opportunity to get access to capital, and candidly, probably a little bit of a willingness of, we're gonna figure this out as we, we try to grow it, because we're, we're, this is not, this is beyond what we've done before, and I, the only analogy, and it's not, it's not a good one in terms of how I can think about it, is, is maybe with Global Foundries and Mubadala, relative to starting to see that traditional fabs, Needed to get extra capital, and that was at a much smaller scale. Uh, now, you know, Satya talking about spending eighty billion dollars, uh, of CapEx, you know, even, even for Microsoft, it's a giant number. Uh, and at these numbers, no, no comp, no one company can do it.

AI assessment note: “I don't think there is a good comparison on this bill”

Answered raw tape D 5 · C 5 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.60

Q It's truly an Apollo scale project. I, I, I guess as you think about, again, ARM, why don't you explain to us again, what is, what is ARM actually delivering into Stargate? Um, I know you're, you know, you're embedded in the GB 200, but maybe just share with everybody else the role you play.

A Well, maybe at the highest level, the way to think about it is you've got a, a giant, as you said, Apollo, Manhattan Project, whatever terms you want to use about Well, I guess it's probably the largest infrastructure to build out in the history of the world. And every data center, uh, whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we, uh, are part of today, which is GB 200, and we're super happy to be partnering with NVIDIA on that product. Uh, or other areas that we haven't talked about yet in terms of productization, there's lots of opportunity for ARM, because the, the base CPU will be ARM. And I think therein lies a huge opportunity. You know, one of the things that people don't always appreciate with, let's take, again, GB 200 running in an AI data center, all of the other work that needs to take place, whether it's the hypervisors, virtual machines, anything that the end quote Normal CPU has to do in a data center has to be run by something. And that's what, that's what grace does. So then when you baseline that relative to, okay, GB 200 is where we are today, the opportunity going forward in terms of these large data centers doing, um, some level of mixed inference and training, uh, reasoning, uh, reinforcement train…

AI assessment note: “needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role.”

Answered raw tape D 5 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.30

Q course, all the other people that are going to be needed to, to network and, and, and do the things in the data center. But is there an idea that you guys are investing in an entity that unto itself will have power and maybe grow in, You know, and serve other customers, or is this really just about coordinating the activities of the people who are around the table?

A Yeah, I, I think what I can say, uh, today, Brad, it's, uh, much more of the latter than the former. Uh, you know, could there be opportunity for the former somewhere down the road? You know, potentially, but right now, it's what you just described. And, uh, the operational, uh, control will be, uh, from OpenAI. Uh, so they'll, they'll call the shots relative to all the things relative to the operation. Obviously, there's existing relationships with NVIDIA. There's existing relationships with Oracle. Existing relationships with Microsoft, uh, ourselves, but going forward, uh, they're, they're going to be in a very, very key, uh, key role on the operation, which I think If you kind of go back again to, to, to Sam and, and, and team spending a lot of time and energy over the past 12 to 18 months of seeking for ways to get, ah, opportunity and access to large resources to advance the, ah, training of these large models, it's kind of where he's kind of been with this. So I think that's a, it's, it's, it's not inconsistent with some of the, ah, the actions and behaviors you've seen, ah, over the last, ah, last number of months.

AI assessment note: “it's, uh, much more of the latter than the former.”

Answered raw tape D 4 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.60

Q combination of equity and, you know, and debt. You know, nobody has to show up with five hundred billion dollars on day one, you know, and, and I'm, I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year, but what's the, what, what, what's your role in this, and how are you thinking about how this scales up over the next few years?

A Yeah, sure. So, um, I have a few roles that, you know, on this, and, and I know you guys know, Mossel reasonably well, I know you do, uh, definitely Bill, um, Yeah, I spend a lot of time with him. Part of it is they, you know, he owns 90% of arms, so, uh, I have a lot of investor meetings, uh, with him, with my, as my chief investor, and talking about strategy. He, he has been, himself personally, pretty large on this idea of singularity for, for quite some time, and it's something that I think he's just had a vision on in the long, long game. With Chet, the Chet GPT moment, I think for him, was a bit of an accelerant relative to, uh, there's a, There's a game to be played here relative to capital, relative to compute, relative to power, and he wants to play a big part in it. And I think there was just a lot of discussions, whether it was Sam Alton wanting to buy fabs or, uh, different assets that were trying to look at power in different areas of the planet. I think something had an opportunity to come together to solve this giant problem of how do you Get access to so much energy that's needed, we think, to drive AGI and ASI at numbers that are even well beyond the balance sheets of the giant Companies like a Microsoft, a Google, a Meta, an AWS, et cetera, an Amazon. So I think this all kind of came together at, at right time, right place, but like everything in life with the…

AI assessment note: “I have a few roles that, you know, on this... spend a lot of time with him”

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