venture capital

also referred to as: vc · vcs · venture capital industry

14 statements across 11 episodes · 0 bullish · 10 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Jan 25, 2024 by Bill Gurley · across every show →

Everything said about venture capital, oldest first

Jan 25, 2024 bearish
Insight
Gurley: Startup Insider Bridge Rounds Almost Never Lead to Success
“One of the easy defaults you go to in the middle is, oh, I'll just go to my insiders and ask for a bridge. And I will tell you, at least all the data I've seen, the success stories coming off a bridge are few to none. That's why we always refer to them as pier…”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 51:23 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Apr 4, 2024 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: LLM Compute Intensity Fundamentally Alters Startup Risk-Reward Dynamics
“The capital intensity of that undertaking is very different than starting a software company, right? And so the risk reward to both the founders and the risk reward to the investors changes a lot.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 11:23 Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More · Bg2 Pod
Apr 29, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Closed AI model startups besides OpenAI will struggle to raise funding
“I think it's going to be very difficult for new entrants to be venture backed because to, you know, open AI will continue to get funding because they have this incredible team. They have a hundred million people using the product and paying them for the produc…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 18:12 Ep8. AI Models, Data Scaling, Enterprise & Personal AI | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 10, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Gurley: Mega-round private capital abundance is now a permanent structural reality
“I think this is more permanent. I think it would take a massive shake out, like a gargantuan, oh, one style or more to change this at this point.”
Bill Gurley Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 11:37 Ep10. Pre-IPO Market, AI Hype Cycle, Is Software Dead? | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 11, 2024 negative
Insight
Gurley: Flooding Sectors With Venture Capital Degrades Portfolio Returns
“Having crazy money in the market is not necessarily consistent with creating positive return for your venture capital portfolio. It can start to trend the other way. If you end up with hyper competition, if you end up where every single player has four hundred…”
Bill Gurley Jul 11, 2024 ▶ 27:05 Ep12. Tech Stocks vs the Rest; AI VC Bubble, Calcium CT Scan | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 25, 2024 negative
Opinion
Gurley: Taxing unrealized capital gains would devastate the startup industry
“It would be catastrophic to the venture capital industry and to the startup industry to tax unrealized capital gains.”
Bill Gurley Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 6:38 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 31, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Venture funding volume dropped 30% to 40% over two years
“The total amount of funding has definitely come down by about 30 or 40% over the course of the last couple of years.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 37:00 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
Oct 31, 2024
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Top 5% venture funds average ~4.5x cash-on-cash returns over 20 years
“If you look at this step stone data, you know, it actually shows that, you know, basically what differentiates those top tier funds and by top tier, what I mean is that the top five percent decile funds. They're earning about a four and a half X, you know, cas…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 29:03 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
Oct 31, 2024 negative
Insight
Ball: Mega-funds incentivize VCs to prioritize deploying capital over founder success
“And so now there's a path where investors, GPs get rich, where the outcome of the founders and their companies is irrelevant. Not to say they are aligned in opposite directions, but they're no longer aligned. And now, as a rational actor, you could say, why no…”
Jamin Ball Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 10:31 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 neutral
Insight
Gurley: Negative-Margin Startups Subsidize Compute and Triple-Count AI Industry Revenue
“If those second layer and the third layer are both negative gross margin, the consumer's buying compute from the hyperscaler at a price that's lower than they would if they bought it directly because it's being subsidized by two players in the middle. And on t…”
Bill Gurley Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 1:14:58 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 negative
Insight
Gurley: Defense Tech VCs Adopt Hawkish China Views to Help Portfolios
“Once you invest in something, you just start to adopt the mouthpiece for it and make a lot of arguments that are central to that company's success. And I think that's happening now that we have a large number of VCs in the military space.”
Bill Gurley May 22, 2025 ▶ 18:27 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: AI foundation models are pricing below cost, subsidized by venture capital
“Because of the amount of venture capital out there companies are not pricing the cost. Like, no one, none of the model companies, I don't think anyone, even in the verticals, like, no one's pricing the cost, because they're pricing to take market share.”
Bill Gurley Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 34:33 China Open-Source, Compute Arms Race, Reordering Global Trade | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Chinese provincial government funds demand non-starter terms from VCs
“Now you have the provinces entering the investment space, which is an uncomfortable reality for some of the VCs. They're asked, I hear they're asking for terms that you and I would consider non-starters, you know and so that's, it's all a little bit messy.”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 57:48 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Domestic RMB venture capital in China is constrained by offshore wealth diversification
“And then there's not that many R&B dollars available to the venture market. A lot of the, you don't have the foundations in, in university endowments that you do here. And the billionaires that have made wealth typically are looking to diversify offshore. And …”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 57:26 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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