Microsoft
includes Microsoft Azure, Microsoft Copilot, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft 365, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Bing, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Fabric and 3 more
96 statements across 20 episodes · 46 bullish · 13 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Jan 25, 2024 by Brad Gerstner · said 549 times in 38 episodes since 2024 · across every show →
Mentions by year, the whole family
brought up most by Brad Gerstner (239), Bill Gurley (135), Satya Nadella (107), Dylan Patel (31), Jensen Huang (9), Sam Altman (7), Ali Ghodsi (7), Sunny Madra (3)
tap a year for its mentions
2026 1 mention in 1 episode
2025 179 mentions in 15 episodes 12 per episode
- All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
- Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- AI Enterprise - Databricks & Glean | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
- AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- 7 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 369 mentions in 22 episodes 17 per episode
- Satya Nadella | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
- BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
- Ep5. Stock Comp, AI Cold War, Valuations for LLM | BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Bob Mylod · Bg2 Pod
- Ep16. Nuclear Update, AI Fast & Furious, State of VC | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- 14 more episodes that year, every mention in 2024 →
Everything said about Microsoft, oldest first
Jan 25, 2024 neutral
Jan 25, 2024 neutral
Gerstner: Tech trades at 36% premium to 10-year average while software lags
“The blue line represents tech. This is the Q's. We're trading at about a 36% premium to the ten-year average. I just showed you software. Software is still trading at a discount because people are more skeptical of software, but when you look at the Q's, Nvidi…”
Jan 25, 2024 bullish
Gerstner: Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta PEG ratios trade in line historically
“The big three, what I call Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta, You know, they too are trading at a premium, about a 14% premium, but if you look at their peg ratio, this is growth adjusted on the bottom of that slide, right? They're basically trading in line with whe…”
Jan 25, 2024 bullish
Jan 25, 2024 negative
Gurley: Cloud Revenue From Invested AI Credits Is 'Low Quality'
“From the big company player side, I would just say definitively, And this could get me in trouble, but this is low quality revenue. Like, this is flat out low quality revenue, and I'm certain that they've got their auditor to sign off on it, but I don't think …”
Jan 25, 2024 bearish
Feb 8, 2024 negative
Gurley: Antitrust Scrutiny Puts Google in a 1990s Microsoft-Style Penalty Box
“Google's like not allowed to do that right now, which it's totally crazy. I mean which, it's actually one last thing is. It's similar to Microsoft in the 96, 97 timeframe where they were, you know, in the penalty box and couldn't do those similar things.”
Feb 22, 2024 bullish
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”
Feb 22, 2024 bullish
Gurley: Microsoft is a clear net winner from generative AI
“People looked at the Microsoft portfolio of assets, especially where they make money around the office suite, right? And said, and the developer community where they also, you know, control a lot of the IDEs that are used to program. And they said, oh, this is…”
Mar 7, 2024 bearish
Gerstner: OpenAI Should Rename to ChatGPT and Focus on Google
“If I was Sam Altman running OpenAI, I think I might rename the company ChatGPT and just focused on the multi-trillion dollar opportunity to replace Google, right? Because I think winning at both, beating Google at consumer and beating Microsoft at enterprise y…”
Mar 21, 2024 bearish
Gurley: Microsoft's Inflection deal is a warning against overpaying in AI
“This is a warning sign that you can't just pay any price For any deal in the AI sector and get paid. And cause I don't, you know, this, I don't see this now. I don't see the current status as a company that's going to have a venture-like return from here.”
Mar 21, 2024 neutral
Gurley: Microsoft's $11 billion annual SBC is only 0.35% dilution
“Microsoft's SBC is 2.8 billion a
quarter.
So that's over eleven billion a year.
And this morning we woke up and read about them taking some employees from a hot AI company in the valley.
And when you're handing out eleven billion a year in RSUs, you know, you'…”
Apr 4, 2024 neutral
Apr 4, 2024 positive
Apr 18, 2024 bullish
Apr 29, 2024 positive
Apr 29, 2024 positive
Apr 29, 2024 bearish
Gerstner: Very few companies will be able to build frontier AI models
“I think that the cost structures that are going to be associated with frontier level models, there are going to be very few companies on the planet that are going to be able to build those models. Because I think the latest discussions, whether it's you know, …”
Jun 10, 2024 neutral
Jun 10, 2024 bullish
Gurley: Gemini in Workspace and Android could be a huge win for Google
“They've always had sheets and docs, and a lot of the startups in our community live on that stuff, but it hasn't really competed with the Microsoft stack, and with Satya's comeback, everyone's been super, you know, super excited about what this means for Micro…”
Jul 11, 2024 negative
Gurley: Big Tech Licensing Acquihires Like Adept Are Not VC Wins
“The adept thing is which was positioned by the press is similar to the inflection outcome. There's no way that's a win for venture capitalists. Like, I'm sure venture capitalists try and spin it, and we heard some spin around inflection, but it, you know, I, i…”
Jul 11, 2024 positive
Jul 25, 2024 neutral
Jul 25, 2024 neutral
Gurley: Antitrust concerns likely did not derail Google-Wiz deal
“I wouldn't, I have a hard time believing this one was a concern about The antitrust because Google doesn't have a huge security business and there, there's actually concern about consolidation around Palo Alto and Microsoft and Cisco in the industries, or in C…”
Aug 9, 2024 negative
Gerstner: Blocking Big Tech From Small M&A Harms the Country
“We need to get back to a place where, you know, Microsoft and Google can go buy, you know, a company that's de minimis relative to their size. You know, Amazon can buy vacuum cleaner company, you know, iRobot without, you know phalanxes of lawyers and having t…”
Nov 21, 2024
Dec 12, 2024 negative
Microsoft missed early deep learning opportunity with Geoffrey Hinton to Google
“In fact, even Hinton worked, like some of the early work in DNNs happened when he was in residency in MSR and then Google hired him. So we missed, I would say, even in the early 20 tens, some of what could have been doubling down at around the same time that G…”
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Nadella: TypeScript team is building an open-source schematized AI memory project
“Yeah, I mean, we have, like, there's an open source project even I think it's, I forget, like, it's the same set of folks who did all the type TypeScript stuff who are working on this. So what we're trying to do is essentially take memory and schematize it and…”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Nadella: Unlikely any foundation model achieves a two-year lead again
“I don't think there will be ever again maybe a two-year lead like this. Who knows? We, you know, it's all, you say that and somebody else, you know, drops some sample and suddenly blows the world away. But that said, I think it's unlikely that that type of, yo…”
Dec 12, 2024 bullish
Nadella: Memo by Amodei and Sutskever Convinced Microsoft to Bet on Scaling
“In fact, I think the first memo, weirdly enough, I read, On scaling was written by Dario when he was at OpenAI and Ilya, and that's sort of what, like I said, let's take a bet on this, right? Which is, hey, wow, if this is going to have exponential performance…”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Nadella: Licensing Outlook sync to Apple leaked value but protected Exchange
“We licensed the sync, ah, for Outlook, ah, to Apple, ah, for Apple Mail, ah, it was kind of a, it was an interesting case, and I think that there was a lot of value leaked, perhaps, But at the same time, I think that was one of the reasons why we were able to …”
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Nadella: Azure Kubernetes service is among OpenAI's fastest-growing workloads
“One of the fastest growing things of, in fact, open AI itself is the container service, because after all these agents need a scratch pad for doing some of those auto grading even to generate the samples, right? And so that is like where they run a code interp…”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft Partnered With CoreWeave to Catch Up to ChatGPT Demand
“That, that we did because we all got caught with the hit called ChatGPT and OpenAI APIs, right? Yeah, we were completely, I mean, like, yeah, it was impossible. There's no supply chain planning I could have done in you know, what is it, you know, like none of …”
Dec 12, 2024 bullish
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Dec 12, 2024
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Nadella details the four pillars governing Microsoft's OpenAI partnership
“I think of them as, hey, as an investor, what are their interests and our interests, and how do we align them? I think of them as an IP partner and because we give them systems IP, they give us, ah, model IP, right? So that's another side of it where we are, a…”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Dec 12, 2024 bullish
Dec 12, 2024
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft allocates capital to unified cloud infrastructure rather than product silos
“To me, I've never, I don't allocate my capital thinking here is the Azure capital. Here is the M. Three, six, five capital. Here is you know, gaming. I kind of think of, hey, there's a cloud infra. That's the core theory of the firm for me. On top of it, I hav…”
Dec 12, 2024 bullish
Nadella: Enterprise autonomous AI agents are one to two years away
“But I think we are maybe a year, year to two years away from doing more and more, but as in, so, but I think at least from an enterprise perspective, going and doing, here's my sales agent, here's my marketing agent, here's my supply chain agent, which can do …”
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Nadella: Microsoft built 10 to 15 autonomous agents into Dynamics
“We built 10 or 15 of them into dynamics, right? Even looking into sort of my supplier communications and automatically Handling my supplier communications, updating my databases, changing my inventories, my apply. Those are the kinds of things that you can do …”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Nadella: Microsoft tried for 10 years to secure an Apple search deal
“Like, I've been trying to get an Apple search deal for, like, 10 years. And so, when Tim finally did a deal with Sam, I was, like, the most thrilled person, which is better, it's better to have ChatGPT get that deal than anybody else, because we, you know, we …”
Dec 12, 2024 neutral
Nadella: OpenAI Briefly Used GCP Before Returning to Microsoft for Transformers
“The first time yeah, actually, Elon and Sam, they were looking for, obviously, Azure credits, and what have you, and we gave them some credits, and that time, they were more into RL, and Dota II, and what have you, and that was interesting and then we stopped …”
Dec 23, 2024
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Patel: Microsoft runs GPT models on AMD hardware for inference
“Microsoft has deployed GPT-style models on On other competitors' hardware, such as AMD they've, and some of their own, but mostly AMD, and so they can wring that out with software because they can spend hundreds of engineers, dozens of engineers' hours hundred…”
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Patel: Multi-gigawatt buildouts disprove claims that AI scaling is over
“Why is Mark Zuckerberg building a two gigawatt data center in Louisiana? Why is Amazon building these multi gigawatt data centers? Why is Google, why is Microsoft building multiple gigawatt data centers? Plus buying billions and billions of dollars of fiber to…”
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Dec 23, 2024 bearish
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Patel: Cisco was fueled by speculative debt whereas NVIDIA is cash-backed
“Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private-slash-credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure, right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private-slash-credit, right? And in some cases, yes, it's private-s…”
Jan 11, 2025 positive
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Gerstner: Microsoft is on an $80 billion annual CapEx run rate
“In their most recent quarter, they did about twenty billion in capex bill, and you just, you know, he said earlier in the year, which caused, or a couple of days ago, which caused a bit of a kerfuffle that they expected to spend eighty billion in capex this ye…”
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Gurley: Google possesses a consumer AI asset stack Apple and Microsoft lack
“And, you know, you look at a company like Glean that I know you you're in and is doing well, you know, you can create Glean for the rest of us. If a company commits to being on the Google stack and has all these things and it becomes a combination that no one …”
Jan 23, 2025 neutral
Jan 23, 2025 neutral
Jan 23, 2025 neutral
Gurley: Microsoft refused to build massive AI cluster Altman wanted
“I think my own interpretation is Microsoft didn't want to build this big, you know, open AI playground or one as big as maybe Sam wanted to build. And so he went somewhere else and everybody, But everyone at the surface behaving like they're okay with that.”
Mar 2, 2025 neutral
Mar 2, 2025 bullish
Nadella: AI agents will exponentially increase compute infrastructure demand
“When you think of an AI agent, it turns out the AI agents Is going to exponentially increase compute usage because you now are not even bound by just one human invoking a program. It's one human invoking programs that invoke lots more programs. And so that's g…”
Oct 14, 2025 bearish
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025
Nadella: Microsoft manages compute capex as a single unified outlay
“My capital allocation is for the cloud from whether it is Xbox cloud gaming or Microsoft three, six, five, or for, Azure. It's one capital outlay. And then everything is a meter, as far as I'm concerned, from an MSFT perspective. It's a question of, hey, the b…”
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft refused OpenAI requests for dedicated multi-gigawatt compute clusters
“Sometimes you may have to say no to some of the demand, including some of the open AI demand, right? Because sometimes, you know, Sam may say, hey, build me a dedicated, you know, big, you know, whatever, multi-gigawatt data center in one location for training…”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Microsoft has royalty-free access to OpenAI IP for seven years
“Not only we have the exclusivity of the model in Azure, but we have access to the IP. I mean, having a royalty free, let's even forgetting all the know how and the knowledge side of it, but having royalty free access all the way till seven more years gives us …”
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Bill Gates was skeptical of Microsoft's initial $1B OpenAI investment
“Obviously you go to the board and say, hey, I have an idea of taking a billion dollars and giving it to this crazy structure, which we don't even kind of understand. What is it? It's a nonprofit, blah, blah, blah. And saying, go for it. There was a debate. Bil…”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Copilot adoption pace is bigger than any Microsoft product in decades
“In fact, one of the things about Microsoft three six five was what was the next big thing after E five? Guess what? We found it in co-pilot. It's bigger than any suite. Like, you know, we talk about penetration and usage and the pace. It's bigger than anything…”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Seeing Codex in GitHub Copilot triggered Microsoft's 1-to-10 OpenAI investment
“Then seeing the early codecs inside of Copilot, inside of GitHub Copilot, and seeing just the code completions, and seeing it work, that's when I would say we, I felt like I can go from one to 10. Because that was the big call, quite frankly. One was controver…”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Copilot Suite Is Microsoft's True High-Margin Business Over Azure
“Some of times our investors are overly fixated on the Azure number. But remember, for me, the high margin business for me is co-pilot. It is security co-pilot. It's GitHub co-pilot. It's the healthcare co-pilot. So we want to make sure we have a balanced way t…”
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft Azure was OpenAI's first sponsor in 2016
“We were involved even in 2016 when initially OpenAI started, in fact, Azure was even the first sponsor, I think. And then they were doing a lot more reinforcement learning at that time. I remember the Dota two competition, I think, happened on Azure, and then …”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft's bottleneck is power and warm shells, not chip supply
“Quite frankly, the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute blood, but it's a power, and it's sort of the ability to get the bills done fast enough close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory tha…”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Oct 31, 2025 bearish
Oct 31, 2025 negative
Nadella: State AI Regulatory Patchwork Disproportionately Harms Startups
“I mean, I think the fundamental problem of you know, this patchwork approach is quite frankly, I mean, between OpenAI and Microsoft, we'll figure out a way to navigate this, right? I mean we can figure this out. The problem is anyone starting a startup and try…”
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Oct 31, 2025
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Nadella: Running OpenAI workloads accelerates Microsoft's cost curve reduction
“When you have the biggest workload there is running on your cloud, that means not only are we going to learn faster on what it means to operate with scale, that means your cost structure is going to come down faster than anything else. And guess what? That'll …”
Oct 31, 2025 bullish
Oct 31, 2025 neutral
Nadella: Microsoft cannot lose more than $13.5B invested in OpenAI
“If you've invested, let's call it, 13 and a half billion dollars, you can, of course, lose 13 and a half billion dollars. But you can't lose more than 13 and a half billion dollars. At least the last time I checked, that's what you have at risk.”
Oct 31, 2025
Nadella: AI chat unit economics differ fundamentally from search due to per-query GPU costs
“Search was pretty magical in terms of its ad unit and its cost economics, because there was the index, which was a fixed cost that you could then amortize in a much more efficient way. Whereas this one, you know, each chat to your point, you have to burn a lot…”