The Calls

“And those are all, those points on that plot, all of like historically have gone up and to the right, but now they're going to start going down because the models get more efficient and people work out better ways of training them when you optimize all the ind…”

“Now, what, now, I, well, what is the point in which I say, okay, I would actually like to see that, but I would like to see Don Rickles instead of Go Forever. That, that is not 20 people in a production studio and a whole pile of SFX. That is going to be an iP…”

“You're going to have people generating content in response to what they think search traffic is automatically. So you will have automatically generated video with automatically generated voice targeting search queries at massive scale. There will be a new floo…”

“It's probably, I feel like there's a whole second wave of what you can do with this stuff. And it will get to video, and it will get much more specific and precise and controllable, and it will answer a lot of sort of make me 20 options of X and Y and Z that h…”

“Apple will carry on treating Google as the default general search engine. They'll just peel more stuff out into their own foundation model or into chat TPT or into booking.com.”

“Well, today, certainly make me a picture that says people doing this, and certainly, and then it will be make me a video that says, that shows people doing this, and that's, You know, that's sort of five years away or something.”

“I'm not sure, you know, there would be a big debate about whether OpenAI is worth anything right now, or what it's worth based on the fact that there's clearly going to be half a dozen competitors to it.”

“The ones that will win will be ones that are open platforms in the way that the iPhone was an open platform. And I do mean deliberately to say the iPhone is an open platform. It has millions of apps and billions of downloads. It's an open platform. That's what…”

“So more likely that if this deal closes, it's going to close closer to a hundred, a 110 Million. I think my gut feeling is that A, it's probably going to close.”

“This year, people outside of those labs will spend, clearly will spend something in the order of hundred, hundred and fifty billion dollars to use AI coding. Just to use AI coding. And that's not AI people spending money from NVIDIA. That's real money. And tha…”

“This EU are going to come back and they're not going to start with payment. They're going to start with the store and the APIs and everything else.”

“China is already having a crackdown on games addiction. You know, it has to be only a matter of time before China comes for this stuff as well and says, hang on, why are these people, you know, purely on sort of social harm and populism, whatever, but like Chi…”

“Look, the 30% rule is toast, but we don't really know quite how and what and where”

“F-One is definitely not going to get the initial price set that they want. ESPN is definitely not, sounds like they're not going to fight for it.”

“The next thing will be dating apps, like why all the dating apps don't have an LLM for like, write me something quirky and slightly flirtatious based on this profile. Go. Clearly that's like the next use case.”

“You know, we're going, quickly going to go to a model in which you can run stable diffusion on the journey yourself on your computer or on your phone. That's like months or years away. It's not decades away. That's close.”

“Well, I think it's pretty likely that Apple will have to open up NFC access, for example. Because that's a payment monopoly thing.”

“But if I'm going to say, you know, write me an itinerary for hotels, restaurants, and architecture in Barcelona, I'm going to get, that's going to produce less click-through, and so that's going to be less traffic for Condé Nast Traveler, it's going to be less…”

“And now I think that's actually gonna be a real plant in Arizona. And I think it's gonna have decent capacity enough to sort of satisfy the U.S. Military's needs and Apple's needs. And it will be, I don't think it'll be even a generation behind. I think it'll …”

“I think the only certainty is that when we come back in five years' time, 10% of people who work at Google will work in compliance.”

“Certainly they will have to open up NFC, they will have to open up Apple Pay, so you'll have to be able to basically substitute Apple Pay with Stripe Pay or Square Pay. The EU, that's very clear in the DMA that's just kind of, that's going through its final pr…”

“And so Apple will sell, pick a number, tens to low hundreds of thousands of them next year, but picking a number wildly out of thin air, apparently people in supply chain say they'll be very supply constrained on the screen.”

“I'm not the right analyst to ask, but you know, they're not going to sell fifty million of them next year. They might, you know, they might sell a couple, they're going to sell a couple of 100,000.”

“If Apple launches an AR headset at WWDC next summer, like that will not have hundreds of millions of users next year, the year after. Like it did take, it does take three to five years to go from the first thing.”

“But clearly like no one is building their own data center. No big company is going to say, right, we're going to have our own data center now and Everyone, you know, the next generation is clearly the cloud.”

“It doesn't sound like it. It sounds like they're planning to do that with a VR headset.”

“Now it's probably going to be flat for a year or two, and then it will kind of carry on back up on the same curve as it was before.”

“And if it is 3000 dollars, well, they're not going to shift any volume of that this year, so it will remain, like, very early.”

“Google AWS, Microsoft probably spent, will probably spend a hundred billion dollars on cloud capex this year.”

“Which is why Intel had this, you know, this capital project to build new chip capability in the US, and it was twenty billion dollars. And that's just this generation. And there's going to be 40, it's going to be forty billion dollars next year. And the number…”

“But what Substack has done first is make the tool to do the newsletter. What they are clearly will do over time is make the tool for people to find them.”

“I think it's now blinding the obvious that the iPhone 15 will have a three D video camera so that you can create content that will flow into this.”

“I think YouTube is blocked, or if it isn't, it will be soon.”

“Now none of this will stand because all of Apple's rules are going to get overturned in the next 18 months”

“They built, getting on for two billion dollars, will be two billion dollars this year entirely known as a marketplace, which I think is, and that incidentally makes of about half the size of Logitech just as a kind of, as a point of comparison in the accessori…”

“Full, full, full autonomy as in a car with no steering wheel that can drive from San Francisco to San Diego while you sleep in the back and there's no seats, there's just a sofa and no windows, you know, like that kind of autonomy is five, 10, 15, 20, I don't …”

“Online advertising will be a hundred and twenty five billion dollars in the USA this year, and literally no one who doesn't work on an ad team knows what a DSP is.”