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Aug 26, 2021 · 35m · another-podcast

Games and Roblox

Benedict Evans · 25m spoken Toni Cowan-Brown · 6m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

Tony Karen Brown and Benedict Evans analyze the economic and cultural rise of Roblox, contrasting persistent live-service platforms and accessible user-generated content against traditional gaming models, corporate metaverse hype, and tech platform gatekeeping.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 80.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 7.8 Guest teaching 1.3 Guest disagreement 1.3 The hosts pushing back 2.8
05100:0010:0020:0030:004:52–11:25 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 Roblox as a Creator Platform and App Store Dynamics Benedict demonstrates deep industry knowledge, drawing historical comparisons to 1980s PC coding magazines and detailing the nuances of the Apple v. Epic antitrust trial and App Store rules regarding Stadia versus Roblox. Toni acts primarily as a supportive co-host asking exploratory questions.11:26–18:21 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Continuous Live Games, Longevity, and Venture Capital Investment Benedict explains the venture capital economic thesis for continuous live-service games versus traditional hit-driven studio models. Toni prompts him to explain VC horizons and highlights differences in company valuations between Roblox and Epic.18:21–28:51 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 Virtual Events, Metaverse Realities, and Lo-Fi Versus VR Benedict vigorously challenges the tech industry's obsession with VR and hyper-realistic graphics for the metaverse, arguing that simplicity, lo-fi mechanics, and streamlined workflows (analogized via Figma) represent actual user behavior. Toni agrees and adds context on virtual concert revenue.28:51–35:41 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 Monetization Psychology, Market Expansion, and Concluding Thoughts Benedict playfully pushes back on applying the term gamification to actual games, then cites granular disclosure data from the Apple trial on App Store spending distributions to contrast 'pay to win' whale mechanics with Roblox and Fortnite cosmetics.4:52–11:25 · Guest teaching 1/10 Roblox as a Creator Platform and App Store Dynamics Benedict demonstrates deep industry knowledge, drawing historical comparisons to 1980s PC coding magazines and detailing the nuances of the Apple v. Epic antitrust trial and App Store rules regarding Stadia versus Roblox. Toni acts primarily as a supportive co-host asking exploratory questions.11:26–18:21 · Guest teaching 2/10 Continuous Live Games, Longevity, and Venture Capital Investment Benedict explains the venture capital economic thesis for continuous live-service games versus traditional hit-driven studio models. Toni prompts him to explain VC horizons and highlights differences in company valuations between Roblox and Epic.18:21–28:51 · Guest teaching 1/10 Virtual Events, Metaverse Realities, and Lo-Fi Versus VR Benedict vigorously challenges the tech industry's obsession with VR and hyper-realistic graphics for the metaverse, arguing that simplicity, lo-fi mechanics, and streamlined workflows (analogized via Figma) represent actual user behavior. Toni agrees and adds context on virtual concert revenue.28:51–35:41 · Guest teaching 1/10 Monetization Psychology, Market Expansion, and Concluding Thoughts Benedict playfully pushes back on applying the term gamification to actual games, then cites granular disclosure data from the Apple trial on App Store spending distributions to contrast 'pay to win' whale mechanics with Roblox and Fortnite cosmetics.4:52–11:25 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Roblox as a Creator Platform and App Store Dynamics Benedict demonstrates deep industry knowledge, drawing historical comparisons to 1980s PC coding magazines and detailing the nuances of the Apple v. Epic antitrust trial and App Store rules regarding Stadia versus Roblox. Toni acts primarily as a supportive co-host asking exploratory questions.11:26–18:21 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Continuous Live Games, Longevity, and Venture Capital Investment Benedict explains the venture capital economic thesis for continuous live-service games versus traditional hit-driven studio models. Toni prompts him to explain VC horizons and highlights differences in company valuations between Roblox and Epic.18:21–28:51 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Virtual Events, Metaverse Realities, and Lo-Fi Versus VR Benedict vigorously challenges the tech industry's obsession with VR and hyper-realistic graphics for the metaverse, arguing that simplicity, lo-fi mechanics, and streamlined workflows (analogized via Figma) represent actual user behavior. Toni agrees and adds context on virtual concert revenue.28:51–35:41 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Monetization Psychology, Market Expansion, and Concluding Thoughts Benedict playfully pushes back on applying the term gamification to actual games, then cites granular disclosure data from the Apple trial on App Store spending distributions to contrast 'pay to win' whale mechanics with Roblox and Fortnite cosmetics.4:52–11:25 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Roblox as a Creator Platform and App Store Dynamics Benedict demonstrates deep industry knowledge, drawing historical comparisons to 1980s PC coding magazines and detailing the nuances of the Apple v. Epic antitrust trial and App Store rules regarding Stadia versus Roblox. Toni acts primarily as a supportive co-host asking exploratory questions.11:26–18:21 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Continuous Live Games, Longevity, and Venture Capital Investment Benedict explains the venture capital economic thesis for continuous live-service games versus traditional hit-driven studio models. Toni prompts him to explain VC horizons and highlights differences in company valuations between Roblox and Epic.18:21–28:51 · The hosts pushing back 4/10 Virtual Events, Metaverse Realities, and Lo-Fi Versus VR Benedict vigorously challenges the tech industry's obsession with VR and hyper-realistic graphics for the metaverse, arguing that simplicity, lo-fi mechanics, and streamlined workflows (analogized via Figma) represent actual user behavior. Toni agrees and adds context on virtual concert revenue.28:51–35:41 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 Monetization Psychology, Market Expansion, and Concluding Thoughts Benedict playfully pushes back on applying the term gamification to actual games, then cites granular disclosure data from the Apple trial on App Store spending distributions to contrast 'pay to win' whale mechanics with Roblox and Fortnite cosmetics.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 69.2% · guest 30.8%0:00 · the hosts 69.2% · guest 30.8%3:00 · the hosts 64% · guest 36%3:00 · the hosts 64% · guest 36%6:00 · the hosts 90.8% · guest 9.2%6:00 · the hosts 90.8% · guest 9.2%9:00 · the hosts 77.2% · guest 22.8%9:00 · the hosts 77.2% · guest 22.8%12:00 · the hosts 96.4% · guest 3.6%12:00 · the hosts 96.4% · guest 3.6%15:00 · the hosts 83.4% · guest 16.6%15:00 · the hosts 83.4% · guest 16.6%18:00 · the hosts 50.6% · guest 49.4%18:00 · the hosts 50.6% · guest 49.4%21:00 · the hosts 97.1% · guest 2.9%21:00 · the hosts 97.1% · guest 2.9%24:00 · the hosts 98.7% · guest 1.3%24:00 · the hosts 98.7% · guest 1.3%27:00 · the hosts 53.8% · guest 46.2%27:00 · the hosts 53.8% · guest 46.2%30:00 · the hosts 88.7% · guest 11.3%30:00 · the hosts 88.7% · guest 11.3%33:00 · the hosts 96.4% · guest 3.6%33:00 · the hosts 96.4% · guest 3.6%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 13:20 Toni questions VC investment logic

Toni interrupts Benedict to challenge his premise, asking him to take a step back and explain why venture capital would get into games now after historical reluctance.

 Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 29:10 Benedict mocks 'gamifying a game'

Benedict humorously rejects Toni's framing of gamification by pointing out that trying to gamify an actual video game is redundant tech jargon.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:52 Toni highlights Travis Scott Fortnite concert numbers

Toni introduces specific data regarding Travis Scott generating twenty million dollars from a virtual concert to prompt a discussion on new virtual revenue models.

 The host holds their own ▶ 30:00 Benedict breaks down top-tier App Store spending curves

Benedict recites exact historical data revealed in the Epic trial showing that less than one percent of users drive over half of total App Store billings.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
Roblox as a Creator Platform and App Store Dynamics 8112 Benedict demonstrates deep industry knowledge, drawing historical comparisons to 1980s PC coding magazines and detailing the nuances of the Apple v. Epic antitrust trial and App Store rules regarding Stadia versus Roblox. Toni acts primarily as a supportive co-host asking exploratory questions.
Continuous Live Games, Longevity, and Venture Capital Investment 7222 Benedict explains the venture capital economic thesis for continuous live-service games versus traditional hit-driven studio models. Toni prompts him to explain VC horizons and highlights differences in company valuations between Roblox and Epic.
Virtual Events, Metaverse Realities, and Lo-Fi Versus VR 8114 Benedict vigorously challenges the tech industry's obsession with VR and hyper-realistic graphics for the metaverse, arguing that simplicity, lo-fi mechanics, and streamlined workflows (analogized via Figma) represent actual user behavior. Toni agrees and adds context on virtual concert revenue.
Monetization Psychology, Market Expansion, and Concluding Thoughts 8113 Benedict playfully pushes back on applying the term gamification to actual games, then cites granular disclosure data from the Apple trial on App Store spending distributions to contrast 'pay to win' whale mechanics with Roblox and Fortnite cosmetics.

Statements from this episode (8)

Assertion Supported
Brown: Over half of US kids under 16 played Roblox in 2020
“It's fascinating to think that over half of American kids under the age of 16 have played it in 2020, which is a huge, huge amount of people, and yet so many people still don't know what it is.”
Toni Cowan-Brown Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 0:39
Disclosure
Evans: NBC spent hundreds of thousands on Second Life with no consumers
“In fact, we did have spent, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars making some second life thing. And, The users were people who worked at NBC, people who worked at ABC's competitors, people who worked for journalists, consultants. Like, no actual consumer…”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 2:52
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: All of Apple's App Store rules will be overturned within 18 months
“Now none of this will stand because all of Apple's rules are going to get overturned in the next 18 months”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 8:13
Assertion Partly supported
Brown: Roblox is valued at $45B compared to Epic Games at $17B
“Roblox is valued at forty five billion, whereas Epic Games is only valued at seventeen billion.”
Toni Cowan-Brown Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 11:12
Insight
Evans: Live-service games fit VC horizons better than movie-style games
“Because I'm investing in this game, and this is a thing that we're going to own for the next seven to 10 years, which is venture capital's investing horizon. Whereas if it's, you know, if it's, if, whereas if games work more like movies, and I'm going to inves…”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 13:25
Assertion Supported
Brown: Travis Scott made $20M from his Fortnite concert
“The Scott Chavik concert in Fortnite, and he made eight, twenty million out of that, and I think the Fortnite concert was one or two nights, and he was filming himself, watching the concert, watching himself, so it's something very interesting of making that a…”
Toni Cowan-Brown Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 18:53
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: VR will only succeed as a niche gaming subset
“I'm afraid I am now deeply on the sort of, okay, I don't think VR is going to work except as, I mean, the school of thought that says I don't think VR is working except as a subset of games. Now clearly there's a bunch of people who think that's just because t…”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 26:14
Assertion Supported
Evans: 0.5% of App Store Accounts Generated 54% of Billings in 2016
“Not .5% of accounts spent over 450 dollars in the quarter. Not sure if this is quarter or month, I have to go and check. Same point, really. And those users were 54% of total App Store billings.”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 30:36
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