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Jun 6, 2022 · 32m · another-podcast

What's next for advertising?

Benedict Evans · 24m spoken Toni Cowan-Brown · 4m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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Benedict Evans and Tony Cameron analyze the sweeping macroeconomic and structural shifts disrupting the global digital advertising industry, from the deprecation of tracking cookies to the rise of first-party merchant media and creator-led commerce. They also examine Apple's influential privacy governance and hardware storytelling strategies ahead of WWDC.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 84.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 7.5 Guest teaching 1.5 Guest disagreement 1.8 The hosts pushing back 2.0
05100:0010:0020:0030:001:33–5:16 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 The Demise of Cookies and Identifier Tracking Systems Benedict Evans lays out an extensive macro breakdown of the digital advertising ecosystem, explaining IDFA depreciation, cookie deprecation, and market scale ($650-700B global market). Tony Cameron acts primarily as a supportive co-host setting up Benedict's deep dive.5:16–11:02 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 Defining Privacy: Contextual vs. Personalized Advertising and Moral Consensus Benedict unpacks the nuances between contextual and personalized targeting, bringing up Apple's CSAM scanning controversy as an analogy for the lack of societal consensus on privacy. Tony interjects briefly with general points that Benedict quickly incorporates and reframes.11:02–15:46 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Direct Response vs. Brand Advertising Across Social Platforms Tony suggests that modern platforms are shifting back toward pure brand advertising away from direct response. Benedict clarifies the industry taxonomy between search/social and brand vs direct response, detailing platform dynamics across Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.15:47–22:05 · The hosts as informed peer 8/10 First-Party Data, Merchant Media, and Connected TV Advertising Benedict demonstrates deep analytical expertise detailing Amazon's $31B ad revenue, connected TV dynamics (90% addressability), and retailer tradeoffs between ad budgets and real estate rent. Tony prompts with exploratory questions around media creation.22:05–28:27 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Organic Marketing, Creator Commerce, and Modern Brand Building Tony pushes back slightly on Benedict's brand-building model by asserting that D2C brands start with community and audience first rather than traditional advertising. Benedict accepts and incorporates this perspective, citing celebrity-driven brand examples like Lady Gaga.28:28–32:10 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Apple Product Storytelling, Wearable Narratives, and WWDC Expectations Benedict and Tony analyze Apple's product marketing history with the Apple Watch (luxury positioning transitioning into health/fitness) to project how Apple might position upcoming hardware products. Benedict corrects Tony's recollection regarding Apple Watch's initial fitness emphasis.1:33–5:16 · Guest teaching 1/10 The Demise of Cookies and Identifier Tracking Systems Benedict Evans lays out an extensive macro breakdown of the digital advertising ecosystem, explaining IDFA depreciation, cookie deprecation, and market scale ($650-700B global market). Tony Cameron acts primarily as a supportive co-host setting up Benedict's deep dive.5:16–11:02 · Guest teaching 1/10 Defining Privacy: Contextual vs. Personalized Advertising and Moral Consensus Benedict unpacks the nuances between contextual and personalized targeting, bringing up Apple's CSAM scanning controversy as an analogy for the lack of societal consensus on privacy. Tony interjects briefly with general points that Benedict quickly incorporates and reframes.11:02–15:46 · Guest teaching 2/10 Direct Response vs. Brand Advertising Across Social Platforms Tony suggests that modern platforms are shifting back toward pure brand advertising away from direct response. Benedict clarifies the industry taxonomy between search/social and brand vs direct response, detailing platform dynamics across Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.15:47–22:05 · Guest teaching 1/10 First-Party Data, Merchant Media, and Connected TV Advertising Benedict demonstrates deep analytical expertise detailing Amazon's $31B ad revenue, connected TV dynamics (90% addressability), and retailer tradeoffs between ad budgets and real estate rent. Tony prompts with exploratory questions around media creation.22:05–28:27 · Guest teaching 3/10 Organic Marketing, Creator Commerce, and Modern Brand Building Tony pushes back slightly on Benedict's brand-building model by asserting that D2C brands start with community and audience first rather than traditional advertising. Benedict accepts and incorporates this perspective, citing celebrity-driven brand examples like Lady Gaga.28:28–32:10 · Guest teaching 1/10 Apple Product Storytelling, Wearable Narratives, and WWDC Expectations Benedict and Tony analyze Apple's product marketing history with the Apple Watch (luxury positioning transitioning into health/fitness) to project how Apple might position upcoming hardware products. Benedict corrects Tony's recollection regarding Apple Watch's initial fitness emphasis.1:33–5:16 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Demise of Cookies and Identifier Tracking Systems Benedict Evans lays out an extensive macro breakdown of the digital advertising ecosystem, explaining IDFA depreciation, cookie deprecation, and market scale ($650-700B global market). Tony Cameron acts primarily as a supportive co-host setting up Benedict's deep dive.5:16–11:02 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Defining Privacy: Contextual vs. Personalized Advertising and Moral Consensus Benedict unpacks the nuances between contextual and personalized targeting, bringing up Apple's CSAM scanning controversy as an analogy for the lack of societal consensus on privacy. Tony interjects briefly with general points that Benedict quickly incorporates and reframes.11:02–15:46 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Direct Response vs. Brand Advertising Across Social Platforms Tony suggests that modern platforms are shifting back toward pure brand advertising away from direct response. Benedict clarifies the industry taxonomy between search/social and brand vs direct response, detailing platform dynamics across Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.15:47–22:05 · Guest disagreement 1/10 First-Party Data, Merchant Media, and Connected TV Advertising Benedict demonstrates deep analytical expertise detailing Amazon's $31B ad revenue, connected TV dynamics (90% addressability), and retailer tradeoffs between ad budgets and real estate rent. Tony prompts with exploratory questions around media creation.22:05–28:27 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Organic Marketing, Creator Commerce, and Modern Brand Building Tony pushes back slightly on Benedict's brand-building model by asserting that D2C brands start with community and audience first rather than traditional advertising. Benedict accepts and incorporates this perspective, citing celebrity-driven brand examples like Lady Gaga.28:28–32:10 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Apple Product Storytelling, Wearable Narratives, and WWDC Expectations Benedict and Tony analyze Apple's product marketing history with the Apple Watch (luxury positioning transitioning into health/fitness) to project how Apple might position upcoming hardware products. Benedict corrects Tony's recollection regarding Apple Watch's initial fitness emphasis.1:33–5:16 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 The Demise of Cookies and Identifier Tracking Systems Benedict Evans lays out an extensive macro breakdown of the digital advertising ecosystem, explaining IDFA depreciation, cookie deprecation, and market scale ($650-700B global market). Tony Cameron acts primarily as a supportive co-host setting up Benedict's deep dive.5:16–11:02 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Defining Privacy: Contextual vs. Personalized Advertising and Moral Consensus Benedict unpacks the nuances between contextual and personalized targeting, bringing up Apple's CSAM scanning controversy as an analogy for the lack of societal consensus on privacy. Tony interjects briefly with general points that Benedict quickly incorporates and reframes.11:02–15:46 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 Direct Response vs. Brand Advertising Across Social Platforms Tony suggests that modern platforms are shifting back toward pure brand advertising away from direct response. Benedict clarifies the industry taxonomy between search/social and brand vs direct response, detailing platform dynamics across Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.15:47–22:05 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 First-Party Data, Merchant Media, and Connected TV Advertising Benedict demonstrates deep analytical expertise detailing Amazon's $31B ad revenue, connected TV dynamics (90% addressability), and retailer tradeoffs between ad budgets and real estate rent. Tony prompts with exploratory questions around media creation.22:05–28:27 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Organic Marketing, Creator Commerce, and Modern Brand Building Tony pushes back slightly on Benedict's brand-building model by asserting that D2C brands start with community and audience first rather than traditional advertising. Benedict accepts and incorporates this perspective, citing celebrity-driven brand examples like Lady Gaga.28:28–32:10 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Apple Product Storytelling, Wearable Narratives, and WWDC Expectations Benedict and Tony analyze Apple's product marketing history with the Apple Watch (luxury positioning transitioning into health/fitness) to project how Apple might position upcoming hardware products. Benedict corrects Tony's recollection regarding Apple Watch's initial fitness emphasis.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 87.6% · guest 12.4%0:00 · the hosts 87.6% · guest 12.4%3:00 · the hosts 90% · guest 10%3:00 · the hosts 90% · guest 10%6:00 · the hosts 98.1% · guest 1.9%6:00 · the hosts 98.1% · guest 1.9%9:00 · the hosts 68.1% · guest 31.9%9:00 · the hosts 68.1% · guest 31.9%12:00 · the hosts 93% · guest 7%12:00 · the hosts 93% · guest 7%15:00 · the hosts 82.3% · guest 17.7%15:00 · the hosts 82.3% · guest 17.7%18:00 · the hosts 99.8% · guest 0.2%18:00 · the hosts 99.8% · guest 0.2%21:00 · the hosts 68.6% · guest 31.4%21:00 · the hosts 68.6% · guest 31.4%24:00 · the hosts 83.6% · guest 16.4%24:00 · the hosts 83.6% · guest 16.4%27:00 · the hosts 73.7% · guest 26.3%27:00 · the hosts 73.7% · guest 26.3%30:00 · the hosts 81.5% · guest 18.5%30:00 · the hosts 81.5% · guest 18.5%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 26:31 Audience-first pushback

Tony directly challenges Benedict's premise that brand creation begins with the brand story, countering that modern D2C products start with identifying an existing audience.

 Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 12:08 Reframing advertising terminology

Benedict pushes back on Tony's framing of brand shifts by clarifying how ad industry professionals define brand versus direct response compared to tech platforms.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 26:31 Reframing creator commerce mechanics

Tony educates the discussion on modern creator and influencer businesses, explaining how audience feedback drives product creation rather than post-production ad campaigns.

 The host holds their own ▶ 16:20 Connected TV and retailer budget dynamics

Benedict demonstrates commanded domain expertise by explaining how CTV addressability works and how merchant media reallocates capital between rent, logistics, and digital advertising.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
The Demise of Cookies and Identifier Tracking Systems 8111 Benedict Evans lays out an extensive macro breakdown of the digital advertising ecosystem, explaining IDFA depreciation, cookie deprecation, and market scale ($650-700B global market). Tony Cameron acts primarily as a supportive co-host setting up Benedict's deep dive.
Defining Privacy: Contextual vs. Personalized Advertising and Moral Consensus 8122 Benedict unpacks the nuances between contextual and personalized targeting, bringing up Apple's CSAM scanning controversy as an analogy for the lack of societal consensus on privacy. Tony interjects briefly with general points that Benedict quickly incorporates and reframes.
Direct Response vs. Brand Advertising Across Social Platforms 7223 Tony suggests that modern platforms are shifting back toward pure brand advertising away from direct response. Benedict clarifies the industry taxonomy between search/social and brand vs direct response, detailing platform dynamics across Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
First-Party Data, Merchant Media, and Connected TV Advertising 8112 Benedict demonstrates deep analytical expertise detailing Amazon's $31B ad revenue, connected TV dynamics (90% addressability), and retailer tradeoffs between ad budgets and real estate rent. Tony prompts with exploratory questions around media creation.
Organic Marketing, Creator Commerce, and Modern Brand Building 7332 Tony pushes back slightly on Benedict's brand-building model by asserting that D2C brands start with community and audience first rather than traditional advertising. Benedict accepts and incorporates this perspective, citing celebrity-driven brand examples like Lady Gaga.
Apple Product Storytelling, Wearable Narratives, and WWDC Expectations 7122 Benedict and Tony analyze Apple's product marketing history with the Apple Watch (luxury positioning transitioning into health/fitness) to project how Apple might position upcoming hardware products. Benedict corrects Tony's recollection regarding Apple Watch's initial fitness emphasis.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Evans: Global ad spend reached $650B-$700B with over half in digital
“Global advertising last year was 650 to seven hundred billion dollars, and something like 404 hundred and fifty billion dollars of that was digital, so it's already more than half. And most of the rest is TV.”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 4:14
Insight
Evans: Apple CSAM backlash shows lack of coherent societal privacy consensus
“Is this is the privacy company that thinks they've gone through all this elaborate, complicated work to do it in a way that's private, and they get this huge backlash, which says to me, like, we don't have a coherent sense of what we mean by privacy, and so we…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 9:25
Opinion
Evans: Twitter's ad product struggles because user data lacks commercial purchase intent
“Twitter, kind of the other extreme, like, it's a five billion dollar business, and the sort of some combination of the ad product itself isn't built very well, but also more generally, Twitter doesn't really know, what Twitter knows about me is not what an adv…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 14:09
Assertion Supported
Evans: Amazon ad revenue hit $31 billion, matching YouTube's scale
“And so Amazon did thirty-one billion dollars of advertising last year, which makes it roughly the same size as YouTube.”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 16:49
Insight
Evans: Brands now treat digital ad spend as interchangeable with store rent
“There's another point, which is one I've made in a different context, which is, yes, but as a brand or retailer, now you're looking at your ad budget as interchangeable with your rent. So you're asking the question, should we rent more stores, or should we run…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 19:09
Assertion Supported
Evans: 90% of US TV audience is addressable via connected TV ads
“I saw some data this morning that, like, 90% of the US TV audience is addressable by quote-unquote connected TV advertising.”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 19:37
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: $31B in Amazon ad spend mostly comes from trade marketing
“Where is the money coming from to buy that thirty one billion dollars of advertising on Amazon? Well, it's mostly coming from trade marketing. It's not coming from TV ads.”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 23:42
Assertion Supported
Evans: Shein is the biggest US fast-fashion brand without physical stores
“Obviously, Shein at the Extreme doesn't have any stores, and it's the biggest fast fashion brand in the USA.”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 24:52
Insight
Evans: Apple's Privacy Positioning Is Driven by Its Product Roadmap
“Yes, I think they believe it, but they're also positioning themselves as a privacy company because they're selling car products where privacy is a big deal. The watch, the credit card, and of course, if you're wearing a pair of glasses that's got a pair, a clu…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 30:42
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