Microsoft

includes Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Bing, Microsoft Azure, Microsoft Copilot, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Access, Microsoft 365 and 3 more

33 statements across 22 episodes · 6 bullish · 10 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Oct 19, 2020 by Benedict Evans · said 571 times in 73 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Benedict Evans (529), Bernadette Kevins (29), Toni Cowan-Brown (13)

tap a year for its mentions
007510150202020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
010202020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
007.51015202020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 73 mentions in 7 episodes 10 per episode
2025 35 mentions in 4 episodes 9 per episode
2024 57 mentions in 7 episodes 8 per episode
2023 90 mentions in 14 episodes 6 per episode
2022 141 mentions in 14 episodes 10 per episode
2021 84 mentions in 19 episodes 4 per episode
2020 91 mentions in 8 episodes 11 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Microsoft, oldest first

Oct 19, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Samsung and Microsoft release folding phones as public product experiments
“Whereas what you've also seen in the last few months is another wave of folding phones. Microsoft has this duo, which is two screens. Samsung has, and a couple of, and Motorola have been selling like 1500 dollar phones that fold in half, and the screen folds i…”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 6:24 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Nov 2, 2020 negative
Opinion
Evans: 1990s antitrust intervention against Microsoft had no effect
“And actually none of the antitrust intervention had any effect, but that's again a separate conversation”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 4:36 How do you destroy a tech monopoly?
Nov 2, 2020 negative
Opinion
Evans: Microsoft's calls to regulate Google are self-serving
“One of them is of course that when Microsoft says that you should regulate Google, they're being tremendously self-serving. When Microsoft says, ah, regulation had a big effect on us and you should do it to Google now. You can't just take that at face value as…”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 1:38 How do you destroy a tech monopoly?
Nov 2, 2020 neutral
Insight
Evans: Tech monopolies fall when industry paradigm shifts bypass them
“Controlling Windows doesn't give them dominance of the tech industry, and so what happens is, like, and it's the analogy that I use here, you've built your castle, and it's absolutely impregnable, and sometimes people capture your castle like they Tunnel under…”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 22:21 How do you destroy a tech monopoly?
Nov 2, 2020 neutral
Insight
Evans: US antitrust punishes lawbreaking while Europe engineers market competition
“US regulation tends to proceed in criminal cases. They tend to look, they tend to say, did you break the Sherman Antitrust Act of 16, 21, or whenever the hell they passed it? And yes or no, and if yes, then we will do this thing. And 20 years ago, they tried t…”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 29:05 How do you destroy a tech monopoly?
Dec 7, 2020 negative
Opinion
Kevins: Google is the new Microsoft and Salesforce is the new Oracle
“Google has become the new Microsoft. I think that's pretty obvious to everyone. Google is the new Microsoft. And Salesforce is the new Oracle.”
Bernadette Kevins Dec 7, 2020 ▶ 27:22 Slack, Salesforce and the future of work
Dec 22, 2020 neutral
Insight
Paradigm Shifts Disrupt Incumbents by Doing Something Entirely Different
“Each of those generations tended to change what companies mattered. So IBM dominates mainframes, and in fact, at the time, people used to talk about IBM and the Seven Dwarfs, because there were seven much smaller companies, like kind of Honeywell and Control D…”
Benedict Evans Dec 22, 2020 ▶ 3:01 What comes next?
Feb 21, 2021 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Major brands including Microsoft, Stripe, and Heinz use Shopify
“And so it's Stripe uses it, and Microsoft uses it, and so also does Heinz. Or Levi, or Pepsi.”
Benedict Evans Feb 21, 2021 ▶ 11:25 Shopify and digital transformation
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google acquired Android over ten years ago to block Microsoft dominance
“This is why Google created Android, because they were afraid of Microsoft doing this. You know, they bought Android and created Android, and this was over 10 years ago.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 24:04 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Jun 14, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple views user privacy violations as analogous to malware
“I think Apple sees privacy as sort of analogous to malware. It thinks that this is an architectural problem on the computer. It controls the computer. They make the operating system. It's their job to fix it in the same way that it was sort of Microsoft's job …”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 13:14 Paying attention to Apple again
Sep 28, 2021 neutral
Disclosure
Evans: a16z Never Passed on Deals Fearing Big Tech Competition
“When I worked at Andreessen Horowitz, we saw three or 4000 companies a year. You know, I don't think we ever said, you know, what if Google does this? Or, you know, you can't invest in that because Microsoft might do that or because Amazon might do that.”
Benedict Evans Sep 28, 2021 ▶ 11:03 Regulation - Who will notice?
Jul 25, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Microsoft did not enter the Fortune 100 until 2002 or 2003
“Microsoft was not in the Fortune 100 until I think 2002 or 2003.”
Benedict Evans Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 36:33 When the point of leverage changes
Sep 19, 2022 positive
Opinion
Evans: Microsoft buying Figma would make more strategic sense than Adobe
“It would have been actually strategically much more interesting for Microsoft to buy this, whereas for Adobe it's just really fucking obvious. Of course they should buy it, and they should have bought it five years ago.”
Benedict Evans Sep 19, 2022 ▶ 17:17 Figma, unbundling and $20bn of antitrust
Dec 11, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Microsoft's Activision acquisition is a straightforward, non-speculative antitrust case
“This is actually a much more straightforward, obvious kind of antitrust case because you're not trying to guess the future.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 15:26 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Most Big Tech sub-threshold acquisitions were under $10M and 10 employees
“And the vast majority of them were less than 10 people, and less than ten million dollars.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 23:17 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Satya Nadella previously called Xbox non-core and non-strategic
“And there was a moment like five or six years ago when Satya Nadella was saying that Xbox was sort of non-core and non-strategic.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 12:46 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Evans: FTC Meta-Within case is very aggressive; Activision case is much less aggressive
“I think within is kind of a test case to try and push the you know, really kind of move the flag post, move the goal much further over. You know, it's a very aggressive case. I think the Activision case is actually much less aggressive.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 9:08 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 positive
Opinion
Evans: Azure beat Google Cloud due to superior enterprise sales
“AWS is mostly lower level building blocks. Azure is mostly high level building blocks. Totally beat Google Cloud, mainly because of like knowing how to sell to enterprise and knowing how to build what enterprises have.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 12:02 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Feb 12, 2023 positive
Insight
Cowan-Brown: Bing has nothing to lose against Google in search
“Microsoft and Bing had absolutely nothing to lose, but Google is on that back foot of we do have something to lose here”
Toni Cowan-Brown Feb 12, 2023 ▶ 2:16 ChatGPT versus Google
Mar 27, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Evans: Generative AI does not work for general web search
“I mean, it also doesn't work for general web search, which is what we can come back to, but it seems kind of hilarious, relevant to relative to all the other excitement and attention that's going on.”
Benedict Evans Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 5:12 GPT-4 is here, now what?
Mar 27, 2023
Insight
Evans: Incumbents treat AI as a feature, but disruption requires new products
“The incumbent's always trying to make the new thing a feature. And so that's very obviously what's happening with Microsoft and Google, including this in PowerPoint and office and of course in search and everything else. But what actually happens is, is then p…”
Benedict Evans Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 28:39 GPT-4 is here, now what?
Jun 5, 2023 negative
Opinion
Evans: HoloLens and Magic Leap demos misrepresented narrow field of view
“The big Bullshit thing that you get in these demos, particularly for AR, like that you got with particularly with HoloLens, but also to some extent with Magic Leap, is that they would show you somebody in a slightly three-dimensional world with stuff all aroun…”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 17:58 Apple Vision
Aug 17, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Most Excel spreadsheets do not contain formulas
“Actually most Excel spreadsheets don't have formulas. Most Excel spreadsheets are actually tables or they're schedules or they're lists. They're not actually spreadsheets.”
Benedict Evans Aug 17, 2023 ▶ 3:19 Unbundling ChatGPT
Dec 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans: Google, AWS, and Microsoft Cloud Capex Will Near $100B in 2023
“Google AWS, Microsoft probably spent, will probably spend a hundred billion dollars on cloud capex this year.”
Benedict Evans Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 5:23 AI and Everything Else
Aug 19, 2024 negative
Opinion
The Microsoft antitrust case did not create Google or the iPhone
“This is kind of bizarre assertions that somehow the DHA Microsoft case resulted in the rise of Google or resulted in the iPod and the iPhone, which is just ignorant nonsense.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 32:45 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024 negative
Opinion
Owning the default browser yielded no long-term strategic advantage for Microsoft
“Owning the browser didn't get Microsoft anything.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 30:10 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Microsoft invested $100 billion in Bing over 20 years for 5-10% share
“Bing has invested about a hundred billion dollars over the last 20 years, and they've got 10%, five to 10% share of US search.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 2:40 Google's Antitrust case
Nov 16, 2025 neutral
Insight
Evans: Big companies run 10 to 20 AI pilots without systemic clarity
“Every big company now has had, like, 10 AI presentations. They've had one from Microsoft and Google, they've had the one from their ad agency, they've had the one from Bain or BCG or McKinsey, they maybe had one from OpenAI, they've had stuff from Accenture, a…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2025 ▶ 2:20 The AI presentation
Nov 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech funds AI capex out of cash flow, unlike OpenAI
“Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are funding it out of cash flow, Meta less so than the others, whereas OpenAI has to do these innovative funding structures because it has no cash flow, and Oracle is basically going to borrow a hundred percent of revenue to…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2025 ▶ 25:55 The AI presentation
Feb 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Big Four tech capex will jump from $400B to $650B
“The big four companies, platform companies, spent four hundred billion dollars on capex last year. This year, they've said they'll spend 650, more or less. Microsoft hasn't been given full year guidance. But Meta and Google and Amazon have more or less doubled…”
Benedict Evans Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 1:33 AI and SaaS
Feb 28, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Evans: OpenAI and Anthropic lack distribution and cannot out-innovate startup ecosystem
“You don't have the existing feature set that Google and Meta and Microsoft and Apple and Amazon and everybody else have where they can add it and Salesforce and, you know, Workday and, you know, Figma and everyone else, some of them, some of which will survive…”
Benedict Evans Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 7:22 The end of the network effect
Jul 15, 2026 positive
Opinion
Evans: Google Search Network Effects Will Defeat Microsoft's Spending
“Google search has network effects, so Microsoft can spend, doesn't matter how much money Microsoft spends, so Google search is still better.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2026 ▶ 16:21 Token pricing
Aug 16, 2026 negative
Opinion
Evans: Microsoft Copilot is an umbrella brand of disconnected features like IBM Watson
“Copilot is rather like Watson. It's a brand name that represents an, that represents every single PM at Microsoft had to add an AI feature as part of their quarterly goals. And so every, every third button at Microsoft And every Microsoft product is purple and…”
Benedict Evans Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 23:15 AI deployment
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