Elon Musk

12 statements across 5 episodes · 2 bullish · 7 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Sep 20, 2021 by Benedict Evans · said 85 times in 19 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

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brought up most by Benedict Evans (68), Toni Cowan-Brown (17)

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2026 2 mentions in 1 episode
2024 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2023 42 mentions in 3 episodes 14 per episode
2022 33 mentions in 10 episodes 3 per episode
2021 6 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Elon Musk, oldest first

Sep 20, 2021 bearish
Prediction Held up
Evans: Fully autonomous, driverless cars will not arrive by 2022
“Full, full, full autonomy as in a car with no steering wheel that can drive from San Francisco to San Diego while you sleep in the back and there's no seats, there's just a sofa and no windows, you know, like that kind of autonomy is five, 10, 15, 20, I don't …”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 35:31 Apple's metronome
Apr 18, 2022 negative
What-if
Brown: Musk would not be buying Twitter if its numbers were good
“Everything that you've just described there, the sort of the daily active users, the fact that it's not making that much money, all of that is feeding into why we've been having this conversation about, you know, wanting to buy Twitter, because if it was in a …”
Toni Cowan-Brown Apr 18, 2022 ▶ 2:18 The future of Twitter
Apr 18, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Musk has zero experience in consumer software or social networks
“Whether, you know, Elon with zero experience of building consumer software, or, and zero experience of a social network is the right person to do that is a slightly different question.”
Benedict Evans Apr 18, 2022 ▶ 9:54 The future of Twitter
Apr 18, 2022
Insight
Evans: Unmoderated social platforms inevitably turn into a world of shit
“And when you have hundreds of millions or billions of people using your product, Like, you need content moderation because otherwise just group dynamics means it turned into a chat. It just turns into a world of shit. And people, anybody who's really worked in…”
Benedict Evans Apr 18, 2022 ▶ 25:22 The future of Twitter
May 16, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Vast majority of platform moderation decisions are universally agreed upon
“The vast majority of the decisions are not the lab leak theory from China or Hunter Biden's laptop. They're not things where people disagree. They are, you know, things where literally everybody who thinks content moderation is bad would look at that and go, o…”
Benedict Evans May 16, 2022 ▶ 24:59 Metaverse - how to be wrong in the right way
Jul 21, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Twitter's erratic changes are Threads' biggest long-term growth driver
“Like the general point here is you cannot build a business there because you can't trust that they won't do something stupid or shut it down tomorrow. And that's probably the biggest long-term positive for threats. Is Elon is going to keep doing this. He's goi…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 35:41 Threads
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Elon Musk lacks an intuitive understanding of how social networks work
“Like on past form, you know, Elon is just going to keep doing this because he clearly just hasn't, doesn't have any understanding or any kind of intuitive sense of how social networks work. And he doesn't understand that he, every time he does these things, he…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 33:17 Threads
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Evans: Musk's management of Twitter has been a series of self-inflicted wounds
“But since then, we've just had like one massive self-infected wound after another. Like he doesn't have, he's shot himself in the feed so many times, whether that's banning external links, like banning people, blocking people. And like, yes, the content modera…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 6:21 Threads
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Musk's controversial tweets destroy half a billion dollars in value each
“When you do that, you just, that, that, that, that tweet cost you half a billion dollars. Every time you do that, that's another half billion dollars gone. Like, why do you do that? It's worse than a crime. It's a mistake.”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 42:25 Threads
Jul 21, 2023 positive
Insight
Threads gains an advantage as ideological extremes self-select out
“All people who think that Elon Musk is brilliant, and if you point out that any particular problem or mention him in anything but less than sycophantic terms, they're all going to stay, they're not going to go to Threads. All the Nazis are going to go, I'll st…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 40:11 Threads
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Twitter needed an 80% to 90% staff reduction and cultural reset
“And so it needed, like, a total cultural reset, and you needed to, like, fire 80 or 90% of the people and then hire back. So that instead of having, it had well over 10,000 people plus, plus contractors. And it's gone down to a thousand or something, and maybe…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 5:54 Threads
Mar 3, 2024
Insight
Evans: AI prompt moderation will repeat social media governance battles
“You re-run all of the arguments we had around content moderation and social media of what should people be allowed to say. You either say more or less anything, which is Elon Musk's idea, or you end up with a long list of criteria, which is where Facebook has …”
Benedict Evans Mar 3, 2024 ▶ 23:56 Google Gemini and AI bias
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