why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Weber: Real Footwear Revenue Is in Daily Trainers, Not Racing Shoes
“I think we were the first one to identify that the real business was in trainers. It wasn't in racing shoes. It wasn't in spikes. It wasn't in marathon racing shoes. The business is in the trainers.”
Assertion Supported
Weber: Track Officials Ejected Brooks Execs From 2012 Olympic Trials
“They kicked me out, our head of marketing, and our head of sports marketing.”
Insight
Weber: Footwear's Multi-Sport Sprawl Began With Factory Utilization Pressures
“And what no one understood that I found out later is that the mindset in our industry literally came from owning a factory. When you had a shoe factory, you had to keep it busy all year long and keep the people employed. So you went from baseball cleats to wre…”
Insight
Brooks CEO: Running business is everyday wellness, not elite competition
“The sport is the soul of running, right? Track and field, cross country, road racing, the Olympics, now trail and ultra, but the business is people that are investing in themselves, fitness and health and wellness.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Bringing one shoe style to market costs $500K to $1M
“Takes a half a million to a million bucks to bring one style to market.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Brooks turned its supply chain back on 6-12 weeks before competitors
“We turned our supply chain on at least six to 12 weeks before anybody else did.”
Disclosure
Weber: Buffett Blocked Running App Acquisitions Due to Lack of EBITDA
“So I wanted to buy every one of those and Warren wanted me to do the multiple on EBITDA and there was no EBITDA. So let's just say it's hard to do acquisitions.”
Assertion Supported
Weber: Brooks reached number one US running shoe position with 21.5% share
“We became the number one running shoe brand in the United States in the last 12 months, last month. 21 and a half percent share in performance running.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jim Weber: Industry Thought Brooks Would Fail by Focusing Solely on Running
“And so, but when we made the decision to burn the boats on everything, but performance running, the industry had never seen that before. And most people thought we were crazy that we wouldn't survive.”
Insight
Weber: Companies with Issues Get Sold, While Opportunities Attract Investors
“The pitch I made to our team, and it's what I believed, is that companies with issues get sold. Companies with the opportunity attract investors.”
Assertion Supported
Weber: Brooks Running Has Not Needed Outside Capital Since 2001
“We haven't needed a dollar of capital since 2001.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Brooks Averaged Over 50% Return on Tangible Net Assets
“Our return on tangible net assets has been over Over 50% for the last 15 years.”
Assertion Supported
Brooks CEO: Ghost and Adrenaline are top two US performance running shoes
“We have two of the best selling shoes now in the United States, the Ghost and the Adrenaline. They're the two top shoes in the performance running category.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: College Runners Often Race in Major Brands, But Train in Brooks
“A lot of the college athletes that race in the big brands, Train in Brooks. Every day.”
Insight
Weber: Beginner Runners Need Premium Footwear More Than Elite Athletes
“But what's interesting at our sport, the person that really needs the best footwear and the best Run bra and all of that are the people that are just beginning. Because the injury potential for those people is really high.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Brooks generated $10M in cash during his first nine months
“And we generated ten million of cash that first nine months. That's how much we shrunk the balance sheet with focus.”
Insight
Weber: Footwear Manufacturing Complexity Resembles Cars More Than Apparel
“It's not the car business, but it's more like the car business than the t-shirt business. There's every, there's tooling on everything. 12 sizes men's, 12 sizes women's, widths, colors. It's scaling these things in the fact there's a lot of tooling.”
Assertion Partly supported
Weber: Brooks Running tripled its business between 2009 and 2014
“Oh, eight, oh, nine, just as that was going on, you know, obviously great recession. We tripled the business. From 2009 to 20 14.”
Assertion Supported
Weber: Nike signed a 27-year marketing agreement with USATF
“Nike, ah, signs a 27 year marketing agreement with the governing body of our sport, USA Track and Field.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Brooks digital sales rose to 80%, driving record May 2020 revenue
“Digital went from 30% of all of our products going through a website of somebody's, ours or another partner's, it went to 80% by the end of April, and in May, we sold more in May 2020, almost all through digital than we did in May 19.”
Assertion Partly supported
Weber: Brooks Running reached $1.13 billion in revenue in 2021
“1.13 billion.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2032
Weber: Brooks targets 60M unique customers and $4B revenue in 10 years
“So we see an opportunity for sixty million customers, Sixty million uniques up from maybe fifteen million today, four bagger, and four billion in revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: 45% of Brooks factories shut for 3 months during 2021 Vietnam lockdowns
“45% of my factories didn't make a shoe for three months. So I, we grew 20, ah, 30, 31% last year. We are up 43% coming into that, that, that, you know, product issue”
Disclosure
Weber: Brooks Running directs all marketing spend exclusively to runners
“If you're not a runner,
We haven't marketed to you.
I mean, we are so focused.
Every nickel has gone to people that are putting one foot in front of another”
Assertion Supported
Jim Weber: Global Running Market Is a $30 Billion Category
“The market in running, it's the biggest category in all of sporting goods. It's the biggest category in athletic footwear. It always has been. It's about a thirty billion dollar category globally. Apparel and footwear.”
Assertion Supported
Weber: Frequent runners go through 2.6 pairs of shoes annually
“A frequent runner will put 20 to 30 miles a week. They'll go through 2.6 pairs of shoes a year.”
Disclosure
Weber: Brooks Running's average selling price is $130 per pair
“130 bucks.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Weber: Brooks Was #1 in Houston Half Marathon, #2 Behind Nike Overall
“So Houston Marathon, 8006 thousand marathoners, 12,000 halves. Number one shoe in the half, Brooks. Number two shoe in the full. There's a little brand down in Portland, Oregon. They were number one. But we are on their heels.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brooks CEO: Big 5 made up $10M of Brooks' $60M revenue
“We were doing ten million of sixty million of revenue with them at 30 dollar shoes. My first meeting with them is we love Brooks. We see a great future for you.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Women have driven running growth since the mid-1990s
“I mean, we doubled the business, and women have driven this sport since the mid nineties.”
Assertion Supported
Jim Weber: Fruit of the Loom bought Russell for ~$1 billion
“Fruit was, you know, sort of consolidating all their stuff, and they had bought Russell for about a billion dollars with internal capital, and they were about to go and restructure that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: 90% of Brooks Running products were sold via retail before COVID-19
“90% of our products went through a retailer.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Weber: Brooks is number one brand at REI and Dick's Sporting Goods
“Obviously, you know, some of the better sporting goods players and outdoor from REI to Dick's Sporting Goods. We're their number one brand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weber: Esophageal cancer diagnosis had a 20% five-year survival rate
“My five-year survival rate was 20%. One in five. And my five years is this November, so I'm going to kick its butt.”