why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Ohio State and other universities mandate AI in curriculum
“There's some schools that are like mandatory AI usage like in the curriculum. I think Ohio State is one of them.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: AI will eliminate active teaching but won't replace human teachers
“I think we're very far away from AI teachers. Now, I think what will happen is, like, the amount of active teaching will go away because I think you can, like, have really good active teaching with AI but I don't think it's going to fully replace a human teach…”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Teachers are paying out-of-pocket for daily AI software
“It's teachers who are willing to kind of pay and use this in their every single day workflow.”
Assertion Partly supported
Cohen: 80% of US K-12 school districts have AI procurement teams
“I think, 80% of districts now have, like, a generative AI team that's going after and looking at procuring, kind of, new technologies. So not only is there, like, earmarked budget, there are people who are thinking and proactively looking for it.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: 50% of US teachers have used MagicSchool AI
“I think Magic School has over like five million users. I think 50% of US teachers has used their tool.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Alpha School students rank in top 1-2% nationally
“I think they rank like 99th percentile in a few different assessments. Their students are now like top one, top two percent in the nation.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zach Cohen: LLMs like ChatGPT are already good enough to teach
“Language models are good enough to teach. Like, they really are, right? Like, if you want to learn something, ChatGPT is a great place to go learn something.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Top-Revenue AI Edtech Startups Sell Bottom-Up to Teachers
“Most of the most mature AI companies from a revenue standpoint have been selling to teachers bottoms up, which is tremendous.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: AI remains at the periphery of the education system
“AI is still at the periphery of education, right? So since it's at the periphery of education, we don't actually know what the outside's impact is. It's helping teachers create assignments better. It's helping students get homework done, but it's not like core…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zach Cohen: Main education AI use case is generating worksheets
“The biggest use case of AI right now is generating an answer sheet or a worksheet assignment.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zach Cohen: AI will let students freely select learning modalities by topic
“We're gonna have, like, a kind of, like, factioning of, like, a bunch of different types of Learners where depending on the topic and your understanding of the topic, you could pick whatever modality you want.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Textbook publishers remain primary gatekeepers of classroom content
“They are still the gatekeepers of a lot of content and what gets in and out of the classroom.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zach Cohen: AI will move directly into classroom instruction within 12 months
“I think we are going to, in the next 12 months, move from kind of the outside of education, the use of AI, just to make things easier to, like, bring it into the classroom, whether it's, like, adding it to a discussion.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Cohen: Ticketing marketplace GMV growth will slow down in coming years
“But if you start to look at the data on a monthly level, you start to see the second half of 2022 really slow down from ticketing marketplaces. And I think that will continue to happen. I would be surprised if ticketing marketplaces weren't prevalent on the li…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zach Cohen: Consumers pay a premium for vetted marketplace tiers
“Anyone can list, but to get that special layer of curation, the suppliers have to go through additional vetting process and consumers will pay a premium for that.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Peek Retains Travel Vendors via Vertical Operating Software
“On the supply side, they're actually providing a vertical software that allows these businesses to run digitally, because a lot of them are offline, whether that's bookings, financing, all of that kind of supply side software. And that only keeps a supplier ha…”