why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Li: Specialist AI startups will win over foundation model creators
“I actually think the winners will be the specialists, not the foundational models. It's the people who will build on top of the foundational models or fine tune the foundational models.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Li: AI slows net new human hiring rather than firing existing workers
“But we are seeing headcount growth in some areas are slowing. So it's not that existing jobs are being replaced. It's more like they're hiring net new. Humans slower.”
Assertion Partly supported
Li: Amazon Go relied on human data labelers despite automated computer vision claims
“There's an Amazon Go supermarket a while back in Soma. So like they, I think they were advertising that it's computer vision models behind the scenes. Identifying what you took from the supermarket. But then people found that they hire a lot of people behind t…”
Insight
Li: Coding excels in AI because software code is verifiable
“But I also think coding market is doing so well also because it's somewhat verifiable problem. Like you can verify like a coding function, like input and output are very clear compared to like user preference, you know and all the other problems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Li: Enterprise software developers will eventually adopt vibe coding
“So I can totally see enterprise users doing VIVE coding, and that's a compliment.”
Insight
Li: AI agents are multi-step LLM chains with decision trees
“I actually feel like it's a multi-step LM chain with a decision tree.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Li: AI coding agents still assume the current year is 2023
“When you ask the coding agent, when do you think today is? It's always like, 20, 23. And then all the specs that we'll give you are from, like, 20, 24 at best, depending on when the knowledge cutoff is.”
Insight
Li: Reasoning and decision-making define all AI agent use cases
“I almost feel like for all the use cases with Describe, there's one element that all agents have, which is reasoning and decision.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Li: Fully autonomous, persistent AI agents do not work yet
“I think so. It doesn't work yet.”
Insight
Yoko Li: Infrastructure pricing splits per-seat for humans, usage-based for machines
“And traditionally for infra, a rule of thumb, like not always the case is that if the surface is used by a human, it's a per seat pricing. And if it's a service that's used by other machines, it's a usage based pricing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yoko Li: AI agent companions will monetize virtual assets like games
“Yeah, and then we'll see the agent, AI agent version of this. I can't wait to see the AI companion version of this. Paying storage for AI companions wardrobe.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yoko Li: Web browsing with AI agents remains slow and unreliable
“Today, web browsing using an agent doesn't work super well. It's very slow. It's very clunky. You have to try it multiple times for it to do any task.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Li: Multimodal training will unlock net new AI agent capabilities
“So I will actually bet on multimodality when it comes to, like, if we train more model train, like, the model with, like, Different traces of like clicking on buttons on the website, navigating the web using different devices, drawing producing vector art. I t…”
Insight
Li: An AI agent is a multi-step execution process centered around an LLM
“I think of it as a multi-step LLM execution process. It's almost like a process in the systems level. The difference is that you have LLM in the middle to make the decisions.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yoko Li: The next step for AI coding tools is automated verification
“So I actually think the next step for a lot of these tools is adding, you know, how to verify it still works. Is it adding tests? Is it adding something else? There's a lot to be, you know, desired today, but I have high hopes that it's going to get there pret…”
Assertion Supported
Yoko Li: Pokémon GO charges thousands of times underlying storage costs
“And as an infrastructure investor, I invest in storage businesses. And then when I look at how much I need to pay for like, 30 extra Pokemon, it was thousands of times more expensive than what storage is.”