The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Tenev: AI is the fastest-adopted yet most hated product category in history
“If you look at AI as a category, you have the fastest product adoption of any products in history. And at the same time, it's the most hated category.”
Tenev: AI ownership shouldn't be limited to venture capitalists
“Like it shouldn't just be owned by a small fraction of VCs. In fact, we should make sure that there's ways to distribute it.”
Tenev: The tokenization of popular private company stocks is inevitable
“Yeah, for sure. Yeah, that's definitely happening.”
Tenev: High-net-worth clients routinely seek to move $100M+ to Robinhood
“Nowadays I'm routinely talking to customers that are looking to move hundreds of millions and have that in Robinhood.”
Tenev: Robinhood aims to automate family offices holding tens of billions
“The goal is if you have a family office, you should be able to run that family office on Robinhood, or we can automate the running of that for you. And you can have tens of billions on there and feel like you're actually at a disadvantage using any other brick…”
Tenev: Prediction markets could become a major asset class and news source
“And prediction markets solve that, which is why I think for traders, it has the potential to become a really big market. And for mass market consumers, it could be a better source of news and forecasting.”
Tenev: Unregulated prediction markets will move offshore like crypto
“And I think that's the best argument for doing prediction markets inside a regulated framework, because if we don't they could go offshore much like a lot of the crypto business.”
Tenev: Self-custodial tokenized stocks protect investors from broker outages
“If you self custody your stocks, you're immune to outages from the broker. You can just sort of like easily replace one brokerage for the other, and you don't have to The blockchain would have to be down for you to lose the ability to trade, which I think is v…”
Tenev: Retail access to private company equity will become normalized
“Makes me very confident. It's going to evolve in the same way too, where they'll start to see it a little bit. It'll become normalized. And then the advantages will become clear. Like you'll have retail fans as a private company, many of whom could be your cus…”
Tenev: Retail equity ownership turns consumers into fierce brand defenders
“Because the best way to not fight against something, as we've seen in public markets with these retail stocks, if you're an owner of it, you'll defend it.”
Tenev: Prediction markets are currently Robinhood's fastest-growing business segment
“Like who would have guessed two years ago that prediction markets would be our fastest growing business.”
Tenev: Robinhood will be a prime beneficiary of the $120T wealth transfer
“A 120 trillion moving into the hands of younger generations from the baby boomers and silent which I think we can be the prime better fish here of”
Tenev: Active Robinhood traders are most likely to adopt retirement products
“The most engaged users actually use more of our products and have more accounts, so the path, ah, the path that someone takes when they use Robinhood, typically they come in because they want to buy one stock or one crypto, and then some of them are more activ…”
Tenev: Financial markets cannot function effectively without speculation
“And it's because speculation is just critical to the functioning of every financial market. You can't have a working market without speculation.”
Tenev: Prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than traditional polls
“Well, prediction markets actually Take advantage of all of these sort of, like, forces to consolidate into a more accurate forecast. That's not a guess. It's not a poll. It's, you know, a price formed by people with real skin in the game.”
Tenev: HFT software cut institutional trading costs by 90-99%
“High frequency disrupt this institutional trading market because suddenly two guys out of MIT or Stanford in our case who could just write code could just disrupt everything. And run the trading book of an extremely sophisticated operation at basically one 10t…”
Tenev: Time and user turnover are the keys to brand crisis recovery
“I think time is by far the biggest element. People forget, you know, you have new young people, new users coming in, replacing the ones that were really upset.”
Tenev: Securities lending remains opaque and reliant on Bloomberg Messenger
“The securities lending landscape, which is a huge source of revenue for brokerages and counterparties is very opaque and very inefficient. A lot of these trades are still happening over Bloomberg Messenger.”
Tenev: Robinhood employees must use competitor platforms for 10b5-1 trading plans
“And one of the things that pains me is we don't offer those services. So if you're under a 10 B five one or you have employee stock rewards, we have to use one of our competitors.”