The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cowen: Physical world will become more dynamic, violent, and chaotic
“Now, I actually don't think those will be the trends for the next 30 years, I feel our physical world is in some way about to break loose and change, and we'll be in a country which is more dynamic, more violent, more chaotic”
Cowen: Returning U.S. economic dynamism will cause severe disruption
“But I think we're headed back toward more dynamism. In the U.S. And we will hate it because it will disrupt us.”
Cowen: US will eventually fail to pay its bills as growth slows
“So in the long run, as our productivity and mobility slows down, at some point we just can't pay the bills anymore.”
Cowen: Brexit pro-remain campaign failed due to poor coordination and arguments
“So you look at the United Kingdom, the forces that wanted Brexit, They mounted a much more effective campaign, and the pro-remain side, which I was sympathetic with, they had very poor arguments in response, they were less well coordinated, they were less will…”
Cowen: Comparing the US to Asia rather than Europe reveals American complacency
“Americans typically contrast their own nation with Western Europe. That's the tradition. And then America feels so dynamic, because Western Europe is even more sluggish. And stagnant. And that's a big mistake. The notion that you should stop being Tocqueville.…”
Cowen: Western Europe has higher wealth inequality than the US
“If you look at inequality of wealth rather than income, a lot of Western Europe has higher inequality than America does.”
Cowen: The US is on the verge of a massive productivity takeoff
“But I think with many new technologies in human history, the first 20, 30 years, they don't deliver what they promise, and then there's a huge explosive takeoff, precisely when everyone's all disillusioned. So I think we're actually on the verge of a new treme…”
Cowen: Productivity growth in the service sector is approximately zero
“Here, clearly, more and more people are involved in innovation, but if you think of the economy as a whole, most jobs are service sector jobs, and as best we can tell, again, it's hard to measure, but productivity growth in those sectors is about zero.”
Cowen: US economy has more barriers to entry than ever
“There are more barriers to entry in our economy than ever before.”
Cowen: Social media political activism is mostly ineffective protest theater
“If you compare today to previous historical eras, I think we're going through a kind of protest theater in many ways. People do things on Facebook, Twitter, they think that's effective. I suspect it's not.”
Cowen: Social media has diminished the cultural potency of books and music
“Now that you can tell people who you are and maintain your friendships through social media, you don't need books and music in the same way. You may be interested in them, but they don't have cultural potency anymore”
Cowen: Society underestimates pessimism over 20 to 30-year timeframes
“On any 50 to 60 year Time horizon. I'm quite optimistic about almost the whole world, but I think on 20 to 30 year time horizons, we've significantly underrated the force of pessimism.”
Cowen: Unmeasured tech gains account for under one-third of productivity gap
“Now, some people say, well, information technology is a kind of invisible form of productivity, but even when we try to measure that, it doesn't seem to close any more than a third of the gap.”
Cowen: Be suspicious of anything that feels inherently good
“As a rule of thumb, when there's something that feels really good, that's when we need to be especially suspicious.”
Cowen: Corporate inertia and veto points set in at 50-100 employees
“Even at fairly small levels, like 50 or a hundred employees, you observe this setting in, depending on the activity.”
Cowen: US productivity growth is lower today than in the 1950s
“Productivity growth is very hard to measure, but by the best measures we have, it's considerably lower today than it was in the 19 fifties or sixties. Certainly much lower than it was in the 19 twenties.”