why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Ullyot: Peter Thiel's role in the Trump transition was invaluable for tech
“The role that Peter Thiel has played for tech has been invaluable for tech in that room. It's a voice. It's a very respected voice within that team.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Younger Supreme Court justices drive updates to tech legal doctrines
“When you look at some of those decisions where the court and certain justices seem to be reconsidering these settled doctrines, it's not exclusively the younger members, but it's predominantly the younger members.”
Prediction Held up
Ullyot: The incoming Republican-led FCC will massively modify net neutrality rules
“So it's been a Democrat commission, Democrat-dominated, three-two commission, and now it's going to flip and be three-two Republican, and the FCC series of Rules about net neutrality will, at minimum, be massively modified by the incoming administration.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tech encryption legislation confounds traditional political party lines
“It's an issue that is, it's one of those that actually that we talked about the outset of one that's, it's not bipartisan, but it confounds partisan lines. You have Democrats on both sides, Republicans on both sides of that issue, and it's not clear where that…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: Feinstein and Burr are the leading Congressional opponents of encryption
“You had, until now, the leading proponents of backdoors, let's say the leading opponents on the Hill, of encryption have been Dianne Feinstein, California Democrat, Richard Burr, a North Carolina Republican.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: Major tech policy issues are decided locally or internationally, not federally
“Another point is a lot of the tech policy issues that people think about today that are the headline issues in the world of tech policy are ones that are decided much more the state and local government issue or international rather than U S federal.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: Federal deregulation will shift tech policy authority to state governments
“On balance, there'll be fewer instances in which a federal regulation preempts to set aside and overrule a state law or to obviate the need for a state law. So you'll have more opportunities for state legislatures and governors, just state governments generall…”
Insight
Ullyot: Regulators reflexively force new tech into legacy regulatory boxes
“They're going to try to channel a new technology into an existing box to impose existing regulations, whereas what we and most entrepreneurs want to see is, hey, it's still early days in this technology. Don't jump in and assume that this is, that, that, that …”
Insight
Ullyot: States tend to be laissez-faire while cities are regulatory prescriptive
“And I think generally speaking, you're going to find states being much more laissez-faire and cities being prescriptive.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: Corporate tax repatriation will drive tech M&A and R&D
“Laws will be changed to allow that money to be repatriated at lower tax rates. It'll be attractive to, for American companies to bring that money back. And one potential outcome of that is a very good thing for tech in particular, which would be a lot of, Larg…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: U.S. trade restrictions will hit physical goods, not software
“I think most of the impact as I see it of the trade talk would be on physical goods rather than software, especially when it's delivered no longer by, you know, long, long ago, you know, when it was, you could stop a shipment of discs at the border. That was o…”
Assertion Supported
Ullyot: EFF opposed TPP IP rules over concerns for global web development
“That was a place where a very influential Silicon Valley voice, that of the EFF, was highly skeptical of the Trans-Pacific Partnership because the TPP, you know, there, there's a push by American intellectual, intellectual property owners To make sure that the…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: Congress and Trump may substantially rein in or eliminate the CFPB
“Now that you have a change of administration, it's conceivable that the Congress and President Trump will substantially rein in the CFPB, if not eliminate it altogether.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ullyot: FDA under Trump will speed up trial approvals for healthcare tech
“Presumably will be an FDA that'll be more likely to approve experimentation and special trials to get beneficial drugs and technologies out into the market sooner.”