why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Butterfield: Team messaging adoption is binary; 80 percent adoption means zero
“Yeah, and it's absolutely binary. So if we get to 80% of the team, And that's it. Then it goes to zero. It's a hundred percent or it's nothing.”
Opinion
Butterfield: Microsoft is the only competitor Slack really worries about
“To be totally frank, it's the one company that I really worry about from a competitive angle.”
Insight
Butterfield: Centralizing tools in one hub outweighs better standalone UX
“Yeah, and I'd even be willing to admit that in many cases using a purpose-built specific tool for each of those items might be the better experience, but the value of having them all in one place just so completely overwhelms any benefit you can get by splitti…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Slack intentionally excluded mobile-only jobs, omitting 70% of US workforce
“We explicitly said at the beginning, and this has still been our experience, that Slack is not really designed for a mobile-only workforce, and not designed for jobs where people aren't going to have a computing device in their hands most of the time. So we au…”
Prediction Held up
Butterfield: Facebook at Work will fail to replace internal email
“This is, by the way, what I'm thinking is probably gonna happen with Facebook at work, too. It wasn't quite sufficient to replace email usage internally, or it wasn't quite sufficient to replace use of messaging internally, or whatever it is.”
Insight
Butterfield: Slack adoption is binary and requires 100% team usage
“And what we found is that success with Slack is very binary. If we get to 80% of the of the team using Slack, it might sound like I'm about to say something good, but no, zero percent will be using it soon. It has to be a hundred percent.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2045
Butterfield: Heavy email usage will continue for at least 30-40 years
“And I want to just stress, because we get this in headlines quite a bit, that we want to be an email killer. Not going away. We've got, you know, at least three or four decades left of heavy email uses because it is lowest common denominator, and I mean that i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Knowledge teams relying on internal email will lose to competitors
“But I think if you use email as your primary means of communication internally for the kinds of knowledge worker, for lack of a better term, teams that use Slack, that's, you're foolish. I mean, and it's such a big disadvantage that you will eventually be made…”
Insight
Butterfield: Hardcoding workflow ideology into database schemas limits software adoption
“The more specific you get, the more that ideology gets cooked into the model, or the scheme, I mean, in the literal sense, the database model, like the field names, and what columns you have the less likely it is going to work for any Given individual, because…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2046
Butterfield: Email will survive for at least three to four decades
“Email crosses organizational boundaries very well. It's how we set up this conversation. It's how people like us will set up conversations like this 10 years from now in the future. And internet, I mean, sorry, email will probably be around You know, three, fo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Slack is growing its revenue at 15 percent per month
“Our multiple has come down pretty dramatically. And it's continuing to come down because we're still growing at 15% a month.”
Insight
Butterfield: All-in-one enterprise software suites are no longer viable
“So first of all, the suite would be far too broad for anyone to do, period, and certainly for anyone to do well.”
Insight
Butterfield: Search-centric tools drastically lower cognitive cost compared to manual filing
“Where it wasn't just the fact that you could search for the messages and find them again after, which obviously is very important, but the cognitive cost of processing incoming messages fell through the floor in comparison to a world where you had to manually …”
Insight
Butterfield: Game development is ideal practice for general software creation
“Games are harder to build. I mean, it's actually in some ways a serious answer that it's good practice for any other kind of software you might want to make for two reasons. One is because technically they're pretty challenging but probably more importantly, t…”
Insight
Butterfield: Lateral transparency across functional teams unlocks immense organizational value
“If the marketing team has perfect clarity about what's going on with sales, and can see where they're falling down, see where they need better materials, if the technical operations team can see what's going on with customer support, if the engineers can see w…”
What-if
Butterfield: Slack would not have taken off if launched three years earlier
“If we had started Slack three years earlier, we just, it wouldn't have taken off the way it did. It might have been a moderate success, but it wouldn't have taken off the way it did.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Enterprise clients will yield higher margins and revenue for Slack
“And I think over time we will have higher margins from those customers and they'll represent a greater percentage of our total revenue versus the total users.”
Disclosure
Butterfield: US and Canada comprise 47% of Slack's daily active users
“The US and Canada put together are 47% of our daily active users, roughly 30% in Europe, 20% in Asia. Japan was our number two country, both for paid seats and daily active users, until it got dislodged by the UK and Germany.”
Disclosure
Slack's internal team receives up to 100,000 automated machine messages daily
“So on our team, the Slack team, we have 250 people. We do about 20,000 messages a day from people. And we do another 80 to a 100,000 messages a day from machines.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Slack maintains an industry-beating monthly churn of 20 basis points
“We have industry beating churn like 20 basis points of churn a month.”
Disclosure
Butterfield: Early Slack team grew to 45 employees using zero email
“When we hired the first employees, the number five at the company through to the 45th employee, everyone got an IRC, everyone started using it, and we didn't use email at all”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: 99% of Slack DAUs use desktop, 65% mobile
“99% of our daily active users will log into Slack at least once on that day that they're active on the desktop, but only about 65% will do the same thing on mobile.”
Disclosure
Butterfield: Slack intentionally omitted structured task management features
“When we were first starting on this and we thought about the core feature set and what we wanted to get in and what we didn't want to be, do we decided we wanted to avoid anything that has too much structure or too much ideology behind it, and so Task manageme…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butterfield: Slack provides new hires immediate access to historical company communications
“We would have people start, and they would have the whole history of all communication that happened before they got there available to them, and that's in contrast to an email-based organization where on your first day, you literally have an empty inbox, and …”
Assertion Partly supported
Butterfield: Slack costs 1/2000th of a knowledge worker's total employment cost
“We're asking them to pay about one 2000th of the total cost of employment for a knowledge worker.”
Disclosure
Slack relies on around 50 different SaaS vendors internally
“I look around our company, we buy software from about 50 different vendors, and this is like software as a service in five different vendors”
Prediction Held up
Butterfield: I will never build a gaming company again
“No. I'm done. That's it.”
Assertion Supported
Butterfield: IRC only has a few hundred thousand global users left
“Only a few 100,000 people left in the world who use it.”
Disclosure
Butterfield: Slack routes all company alerts, tweets, and tickets into Slack
“In our case, every time someone tweets at us at our company, that goes into our Slack instance. Every time a the customer creates a ticket through Zendesk, that goes into our Slack instance. Every time someone signs up for the service through our own internal …”