The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 41 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: Society will deem AI training fair use but create IP licensing models
“So like, you'll see this continue to move, but forced guests from the position we're in today, I would say that society decides training is fair use, but There's a new model for generating content in the style of or with the IPF or something else.”
Altman: Video AI models capable of deepfaking anyone will arrive soon
“So like, very soon, the world is going to have to contend with incredible video models that can deepfake anyone or kind of show anything you want, and that will mostly be great.”
Altman: AI models will make important scientific discoveries in two years
“So in two years, I think the models will be doing bigger chunks of science and making important discoveries.”
Altman: Current LLMs can advance enough to automate AI research breakthroughs
“I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology. Like I, it's a very self-referential answer, but if LLMs can get, if LLM based stuff can get far enough that it can do like better research th…”
Altman: AGI arrival will not transform the world as radically as expected
“AGI will come, it will go Wuxian Bai. The world will not change as much as the impossible amount that you would think it should.”
Altman: AI regulation should strictly apply to superhuman frontier models
“The one thing I would like is as the models get, the thing I would most like is as the models get truly, like, extremely superhuman capable. I think those models and only those models are probably worth some sort of like very careful safety testing as the fron…”
Altman: OpenAI Consults Its Own Models for Strategic Company Advice
“There have been multiple times, and there was just another one recently where we have asked a then current model for, you know, what should we do? And it has had a insightful answer we missed.”
Altman: I was wrong to oppose vertical integration in tech
“I was always against vertical integration. And I now think I was just wrong about that.”
Altman: World models like Sora are crucial for achieving AGI
“I think you could say that on the surface, Sora, for example, does not look like it's AGI relevant, but I would bet that if we can build really great world models, that'll be much more important to AGI than people think.”
Altman: AI and society must co-evolve through iterative model releases
“And I think that, so research benefits aside, I'm a big believer that society and technology have to co-evolve. It's, you can't just drop the thing at the end. It doesn't work that way. It is a sort of ongoing back and forth.”
Altman: OpenAI will not devote a large fraction of compute to Sora
“But we won't throw like tons of compute at it or not by a fraction of our.”
Altman: OpenAI continues achieving fundamental breakthroughs in deep learning and reasoning
“And deep learning has been this miracle that keeps on giving, and we have kept finding, like, breakthrough after breakthrough. Again, when we got the reasoning model breakthrough, like, I also thought that was like, we're never gonna get another one like that.…”
Altman: Public awareness lags far behind actual AI model capabilities
“And now we're in this world where the capability overhang is so immense. Like most of the world still just thinks about what ChatGPT can do. And then you have, like, some nerds in Silicon Valley that are using codecs, and they're like, wow, those people have n…”
Altman: OpenAI prioritizes GPU allocation for research over consumer growth
“When there's a constraint, we almost like, which happens all the time we almost always prioritize giving the GPUs to research over supporting the product. Part of the reason we want to build this capacity so we don't have to make such painful decisions. There …”
Altman: Managing research requires a seed investor mindset, not product management
“A really good research culture looks much more like running a really good seed stage investing firm and betting on founders and sort of that kind of, than it does like running a product company.”
Altman: Static AI benchmark scores are crazily gamed and less interesting
“But I think the like static evals of benchmark scores are less interesting. And also those are crazily gamed.”
Altman: AI technology will cause really bad incidents
“I expect, like, I expect some really bad stuff to happen because of the technology, which also has happened with previous technologies.”
Altman: Rights holders fear Sora won't feature their characters enough
“In the case of Sora, we've heard from A lot of concerned rights holders and also a lot of... And a lot of rights holders who are like, my concern is you won't put my character in enough.”
Altman: Banning nuclear power in the West was an incredibly dumb decision
“That was an incredibly dumb decision.”
Altman: AI researchers and investors initially hated compute scaling
“It was such a hated, like, people were, man, when we started, like, figuring that out, people were just like, absolutely not. The field hated it so much. Investors hated it too. It's not the, it's somehow not an appealing answer to the problem.”
Altman: OpenAI aims to be consumers' primary personal AI subscription
“We want to be people's personal AI subscription. I think most people will have one, some people will have several, and you'll use it in some first party consumer stuff with us, but you'll also log into a bunch of other services and you'll just, you'll use it f…”
Altman: OpenAI sees AI model performance 1-2 years ahead of release
“We would not be going this aggressive if all we had was today's model. We get to see a year or two in advance though.”
Altman: OpenAI will likely charge users per video generation for Sora
“I assume it's like some version of you have to charge people per generation when it's this expensive.”
Altman: Paid recommendation ads would destroy user trust in ChatGPT
“People have a very high trust relationship with ChatGPT. Even if it screws up, even if it hallucinates, even if it gets it wrong, people feel like it is trying to help them and that it's trying to do the right thing. And if we broke that trust, it's like you s…”
Altman: Verifying human content will require measuring AI assistance levels
“Human generated will turn out to be like, you have to verify like what percent. So like fully handcrafted. Was it like tool aided?”
Altman: OpenAI Has No Current Plan to Sell Raw Compute
“It feels to me like there will emerge some other thing to do like that, but I don't know, we don't have a current plan there. It's currently just meant to, like, support the service we want to deliver and the research.”
Altman: OpenAI's infrastructure, research, and products form a single vertical stack
“I mean, the research enables us to make the great products and the infrastructure enables us to do the research. So it is kind of like a vertical stack of things.”
Altman: iPhone is the most incredible product in tech history
“The iPhone, I think, is the most incredible product the tech industry has ever produced, and it is extraordinarily vertically integrated.”
Altman: Text AI interfaces are nowhere near saturated
“What a chat interface can do for you, it's like nowhere near saturated, because you could ask a chat interface, like, please cure cancer. A model certainly can't do that yet. So I think the text interface style can go very far, even if for the chit chat use ca…”
Altman: Addressing ChatGPT's sycophantic tone is technically easy
“So it's not, technically, it's not hard to deal with at all.”
Altman: ChatGPT will automatically adapt personality based on user interaction
“I mean, ideally, like you just talk to ChatGPT for a little while and it kind of interviews you and also sort of sees what you like and don't like and.”
Altman: OpenAI Naively Assumed One AI Persona Fits All Users
“I think we just had a really naive thing, which, you know, like, It would sort of be unusual to think you could make something that would talk to billions of people and everybody wants to talk to the same person. And yet that was sort of our implicit assumptio…”
Altman: OpenAI Making Aggressive Infrastructure Bet Amid Unprecedented Research Confidence
“We have decided that it is time to go make a very aggressive infrastructure bet and We're like, I've never been more confident in the research roadmap in front of us, and also the economic value that will come from using those models.”
Altman: Expect Many More OpenAI Infrastructure Partnerships in Coming Months
“And so we're going to partner with a lot of people. You should expect like much more from us in the coming months.”
Altman: Scientific discovery will remain a valid AI evaluation metric long-term
“Well, we're talking about scientific discovery. I think that'll be an eval that can go for a long time.”
Altman: Rights holders reacted differently to video AI than image AI
“And we saw an example of a different, like video models got a very different response from rights holders than ImageGen does.”
Altman: Generative AI IP Dispersal Will Lead to Varied Licensing Models
“So, so I think, like, if I had to guess, Some people will say that. Some people say absolutely not, but it doesn't have the music industry like thing of just a few people with all of the. It's more dispersed. And so people will just try many different setups h…”
Altman expects natural gas to dominate short-term U.S. baseload energy growth
“I expect in the short term it will be, most of the net new in the US U.S. Will be natural gas. Relative to at least base load energy.”
Altman predicts solar storage and advanced nuclear will dominate long-term energy
“In the long term, I expect it'll be, I don't know what the ratio, but the two dominant sources will be solar plus storage and nuclear. I think some combination of those two will win the future, like the long term future. And advanced nuclear, meaning SMRs fusi…”
Altman: Rapid nuclear adoption depends on achieving radical cost advantages over alternatives
“So if nuclear gets radically cheap relative to anything else we can do, I'd expect there's a lot of political pressure to get the NRC to move quickly on it, and we'll find a way to build it fast. If it's around the same price as other sources, I expect the kin…”
Altman: Industry gaming LLM search recommendations emerged in past year
“So this is a very sudden shift that has happened. We never used to hear about this, like, six months ago, 12 months ago. Certainly. And now, there's like, a real cottage industry that feels like it's sprouted up overnight. Trying to do this.”