why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tseng: US Cannot Close Drone Manufacturing Gap With China Within a Decade
“I think that the industrial capacity of China is Fearsome. And try as we might, I think that's gonna be a very difficult thing to close out in one year or even a decade, and, you know, I, I'm an optimist, and, you know, I like to, I'll always like to believe t…”
Assertion Supported
Tseng: Shield AI Updated Software in 24 Hours for HIMARS Strike
“In the span of 24 hours, the engineering team re-architected the stack to not use GPS at any point in the mission. We validated it at our Texas facilities, and then we pushed it forward, and 24 hours later the team took off and then conducted a demonstration t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tseng: Human-Machine Teams Will Outperform Pure AI Systems for Several Years
“Maybe the good and true news right now is that I think human machine teams are far more effective than like machine only teams right now. And, you know, for the next, you know, several years, you know, I think that that'll continue to be true and maybe it's tr…”
Prediction Held up
Tseng: Shield AI Will License AI Pilots to Defense Hardware Makers
“When we thought about the next 10 years, the question was, like, is the future really about Shield AI building the world's best AI pilot, or is it about making a contribution to the industrial base so that, you know, everybody that's building these systems You…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Unprogrammed drone taught itself to exceed human-designed flight controllers
“And our chief science officer, Nate, took a quadrotor that doesn't know how to fly, that has the most advanced controllers designed by people ever. And in a period of a few days, the quadcopter, just through its own experiences, learned to reach Boundaries of …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Autonomous robots instantly transfer learned models across hardware-diverse fleets
“And it's able to transfer that learning to every other robot in the fleet immediately, and it's also able to transfer that learning to machines that have different computation sensing and actuation constraints, and each of those machines are able to introspect…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tseng: Deployment Speed Will Be Decisive Factor for Global Militaries
“It will be the pace of deployment that is the make or break for militaries around the world.”
Assertion Partly supported
Room clearing remains among the deadliest post-9/11 military operations
“Clearing buildings of threats has been one of the most costly missions for U.S. Forces in terms of human life. And one of the most costly missions for civilians in terms of human life since post-nine-eleven.”