The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dalio: Diversification provides far more benefit than picking winning assets
“And if you really look at that, the marginal benefit of diversification is much more powerful than the marginal benefit of goodness.”
Dalio: Visionary leaders like Jobs and Musk prioritize mission over feelings
“The one that you're referring to is there's a test call in workplace inventory, which is called concern for others, and it doesn't really mean concern for others. What it means is that when faced with the choice of whether the mission is Or the individual's fe…”
Dalio: The bottom 60 percent of Americans have seen no income growth
“There is the top 40% and the bottom 60%. And if you just carve out and you say, what is the economy and life like of the bottom 60%? There hasn't been income growth, prospects of having a better life than your parents.”
Dalio: Overlaying historical data archetypes is key to investment rule-making
“So, in other words, Let's take all of those cases and put them together, and if they're, if they have data associated with them, let's say a bubble, then you just plot the data on top of each other so you could see each one unfold, and then you can then say, w…”
Dalio: 15 uncorrelated bets cut portfolio risk by 80 percent
“The key in embedding, I believe, is to find 15 good, they don't have to be great, Uncorrelated or low-correlated return streams, because if you have, let's say, a 60% correlation between those items that you're about, and you could have a thousand, and you're …”
Dalio: Adults can improve psychological weaknesses by at most one standard deviation
“I've examined that at length, both in terms of our populations, and then I've really enjoyed working with psychologists to try to figure out, they're the pros, and doing that, and generally speaking, with a lot of hard work, you can change by about one standar…”
Ray Dalio: Most people who think they are open-minded are prejudiced
“Most people who think that they're open-minded have formed an opinion. That prejudices them, and that they have to get knocked off on. They're not reaching out with the worry that they might be wrong.”
Dalio: Society will collapse into conflict without shared principles
“If you don't have those principles and those ways of getting through that, we will be at each other's throats.”
Dalio: Designed the commodity hedging strategy behind McDonald's Chicken McNugget launch
“I contributed to the economic risk of being able to come out with a Chicken McNugget. Because it came out at a time when there was a lot of commodity price volatility, and McDonald's wanted to come out with a chicken McNugget, but they couldn't lock in a price…”
Dalio: People are routinely surprised by events outside their lifetime
“One of the things that I've observed over and over again is that everybody gets surprised about the thing that hasn't happened before their lifetime.”
Dalio: Evaluate employees on decision process rather than outcome
“If you're looking at a baseball player or a golfer, and you see how their swing is, you should be able to say that's a good swing. So if you just look at the shot, that's a different thing. So you have to know how to look at the swing rather than the shot, rig…”
Dalio: Collective decision-making outperforms individual choices when ego barriers are removed
“And if you can get that radical open-mindedness collective decision making is so much better than individual decision making, but you've got to get over those two barriers.”
Dalio: One-third of Bridgewater employees fail to overcome cognitive barriers
“About a third of the people can't get through it, something like that. Over 18 months, you can pretty well find out where you are.”
Ray Dalio: Consult three disagreeing experts when making major decisions
“What I recommend you do in that case, in almost all cases of making decisions, is find three really great experts who will disagree with each other, openly disagree with each other to try to find the right path.”
Dalio: Framing yourself as teacher, peer, or student resolves disagreements
“And so if you have a differences in the understanding by kind of saying, Am I a teacher, a peer, or a student? What should I be helps me navigate the best way to approach that.”
Dalio: Documenting decision criteria enabled converting principles into software algorithms
“By writing it down, I was able to communicate with others, so it got us in sync, and then I was able to convert a lot of these two algorithms so that I was able to build a decision-making system.”
Dalio: Planning an app to crowdsource and vote on decision-making principles
“What I'm planning to do is to get the best principles from everybody and then make that all available on an app in which then people can then vote up what are the best principles for that particular thing that they're encountering, and so then when that thing …”