The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thiel: Tech market is not a bubble because public IPO participation is low
“I tend to think the bubbles always required the public to be involved in a very big way, and there were these psychosocial phenomena on some level, and this, the public is not really involved because the companies are not going public until extremely late in t…”
Thiel: US may see nuclear power renaissance as baby boomers lose power
“I'm hopeful it's a bit of a generational issue where the anti-nuclear people Are these boomers, these baby boomers who came of age in the seventies and once they lose grip on power in the next decade or so we may be able to have a nuclear renaissance in this c…”
Thiel: Investor passed on PayPal because Musk's car outvalued his condo
“There was one of the investors I talked to years later who talked to us in summer of 2000 and said he didn't want to invest in the company because the CEO, Elon was living in a one bedroom condo in Palo Alto at the time, and the CEO was clearly lying to him be…”
Thiel: PayPal Scaled From 100k to 1M Users in 10 Weeks
“The customer base was growing at sort of a five to seven percent daily compounding rate. It had hit a 100,000 users in, on February third, 2000, and got to a million by mid-April of 2000.”
Thiel: PayPal Raised $100M Days Before Dot-Com Crash
“And so we closed on, yeah, we closed on a hundred million on Friday, March 31st, and the following Monday, the bottom fell out of the market.”
Thiel: PayPal reached break-even in September 2001, first post-9/11 IPO filing
“We got to break even in September, 2001. We were the first company in the U.S. To file after nine 11, filed end of September.”
Thiel: Elon Musk spent one-third of his liquid net worth on a McLaren F1
“I think he had, it was like one third of it.”
Thiel: Jeep in 1941 was America's last successful new car company pre-Tesla
“The last successful new car company in the U.S. Had been Jeep, which was started in 1941.”
Thiel: PayPal's Early Referral Strategy Cost $20 Per Customer
“If you signed up, you got 10 dollars. If you referred someone who signed up, you got 10 dollars. So we had a 20 dollar customer acquisition cost.”