The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Oren Cass Aug 20, 2025 ▶ 10:42 Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cass: Tariffs fail if manufacturing investment does not rebound within years
“If a couple of years from now you are not seeing the investment response, and either we can't do the workforce stuff, or for political economy reasons, It is not feasible for us to do that stuff. Then I would be the first to admit this is apparently not an eff…”
Oren Cass Aug 20, 2025 ▶ 1:11:34 Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
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