The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
AI capable of curing cancer is only a few years away
“I'd love to get to the point where you can just ask it how to cure cancer or something, you know. I mean, it's, you know, it seems a few years away for now, but, you know, like.”
Entertainment is a $2T industry built on imaginary friends
“Entertainment is like this two trillion dollar a year industry. And like the dirty secret is that entertainment Is imaginary friends that don't know you exist.”
LLM hallucination is a feature, not a bug, for AI companions
“Like you want to launch something that's a doctor, It's going to be a lot slower because you want to be really, really, really careful about not providing like false information, but friend, you can do like really fast. Like it's just entertainment. It makes t…”
AI companion entertainment is ready for immediate explosive adoption
“If I, like, I want to push this technology ahead fast, like, that's what I want to go with, because like, A, it's, you know, it's ready for an explosion, like right now, not like in five years when we solve all the problems, but like, now.”
Character.AI aims for AGI by building consumer products at scale
“Our goal is to be like an AGI company and a product first company. And the way to do that is by picking the right product that forces us to work on the right things, things that generalize, make the model smarter, make it, like, do what people, you know, what …”
Frustration over inability to launch AI products drove Google exit
“You know, some people are motivated by publishing, you know, like, I was frustrated I couldn't launch at Google.”
Theory of mind in AI is an emergent property of scale
“Yeah, just make the thing smarter. It's gonna have a better theory of mind, and I think that's definitely something massively, massively important. It seems like one of these emergent properties that just Is gonna, going to come with scale.”
AI will improve massively from scaling without new breakthroughs
“And without any breakthroughs, like it's going to get like massively better as everyone just Kind of scales up to use it, and there will be more breakthroughs because now, you know, like all the scientists in the world are like working on like making this stuf…”
AI scaling laws show no signs of stopping
“I don't think anyone's seen like these scaling laws, you know, stop. I think as far as anybody has experimented, stuff just gets, keeps, keeps getting smarter.”
Shazeer is not currently afraid of AGI destroying humanity
“No. Not yet. Not yet. I think there's a lot of possibility of you know, a lot of potential benefits and yeah, we're going to work on it as the technology improves.”
Character.ai's model cost $2M to train, now $500k
“The model we're serving now, we, you know, cost us about, like, two million dollars worth of compute cycles to train last year, and could probably repeat it for, like, half a million now.”
Character.ai will launch a significantly smarter model by late 2023
“We're going to launch something, tens of IQ points smarter hopefully by the by the end of the year.”
Narrow AI use cases tempt builders into non-generalizable rules
“The more you get to like mission critical, you know, particular use case, the more you get tempted into like writing particular rules and like doing things that will not generalize well.”
Individual compute operations currently cost around $10^-18
“Like operations cost like 10 to the -18 dollars these days”