The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Smith: US factory construction boomed under Biden after decades of stagnation
“But when you look at factory construction, real, real factory construction, you saw this enormous, you saw it basically flat at a flat level for decades and decades at a fairly low level. Then you saw this enormous boom during the Biden years and all the facto…”
Noah Smith: Smartphone technology is driving global fertility far below replacement
“Phones have destroyed the human race. Like, the fertility crash that's happening all around the world. Nobody has replacement level fertility. Fertility is going far below replacement everywhere because of technology.”
Smith: AI outperforms human doctors on many medical diagnoses
“AI is, is better for diagnosis on a lot of things than humans, right?”
Smith: Radiologist wages and employment rose after Hinton's automation prediction
“You also got Jeffrey Hinton's prediction that radiologists would be unemployed within a certain time frame, and by that time, radiologist wages were higher than ever, and employment was higher than ever.”
Smith: Chinese subsidies force BYD to rely on supplier loans
“We're seeing BYD having to take loans from its suppliers just to stay financially afloat, even though it's the best car company in the world because the Chinese government has paid A million other car companies to compete with BYD.”
Smith: China Shock Displaced US Manufacturing Workers Into Low-Wage Service Jobs
“What Otter, Dorn, and Hansen found is that the adjustment of the average worker in competition with Chinese workers was much, much slower and worse, and they found that, you know, the average displaced manufacturing worker in the eighties and nineties who was …”
Smith: US Manufacturing Jobs Plunged After China Entered WTO In 2000
“Total manufacturing employment has shrunk since 2000 dramatically. So at the exact same time trying to enter the WTO, total manufacturing employment in the United States, which had been at a stable level for decades and decades, starts to plunge.”
Smith: The China Trade Shock Is Over As Labor Costs Equalize
“The China shock is over. China unit labor costs are now at parity with the United States labor cost, and there is nothing on the horizon that looks anything like China.”
Smith: Germany and South Korea maintain manufacturing despite demographic decline
“Observing countries like Germany and South Korea, where the manufacturing share of industry has remained remarkably high. So I see them with extremely low fertility rates, low rates of family formation, you know, skyrocketing divorce rates, and you know in Kor…”
Smith: US manufacturing indicators slumped following Trump tariff announcements
“Since Trump announced his quote unquote liberation day tariffs, we've seen deterioration in manufacturing PMIs purchasing orders you know, investment plans. Every indication of manufacturing you've had is slumping now and notably beginning directly after Trump…”
Smith: Shrinking trade deficits coincided with flatlining US manufacturing productivity
“Our trade deficit shrank enormously after 2008. However, that is when our manufacturing productivity flatlined, ok? And that is when our industrial output flatlined, is after 2008.”
Smith: US industrial production grew during China shock despite job losses
“During the China shock when our manufacturing employment fell, our industrial production actually rose a bit.”
Smith: Trucker employment grew a decade after self-driving job loss forecasts
“There were two stories in the same year about truckers being mass unemployed by, you know, self-driving trucks, and then 10 years later, there's a trucker shortage, and the number of truckers we hire is higher than ever.”
Smith: Subsidies And Low Standards Drove China's Trade Competitiveness
“The reasons China was cheap, I mean, cheap wages were part of it, but they were subsidizing energy. They were giving everybody really cheap coal without worrying about the environmental impacts. They had very low labor standards, and they had a bank finance sy…”
Smith: Absolute US Manufacturing Employment Remained Stable From 1945 To 2000
“Manufacturing employment shrank as a percent of the total workforce since 1945, but total manufacturing employment didn't.”
Smith: China Has Stopped Undervaluing Its Currency And Is Selling Reserves
“China's no longer undervaluing its currency. That was very mercantilist. They were building up their U S dollars. They're like modern day gold. They were doing that in the 2000. They have stopped now and have actually been propping up their currency instead of…”