The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Smith: Elon Musk is the only entrepreneur to scale US manufacturing
“Who's the only entrepreneur who's been able to successfully scale manufacturing in America, you know, even in the face of international competition, and it's been pretty credible because his supply chains are far more domestically sourced than most manufacture…”
Noah Smith: Most of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI predictions have been proven wrong
“I would say that already most of the things he predicted have been invalidated or made irrelevant in the last year and a half, like, and especially in terms, like all the comp stuff about competition with China you know, like it turns out filtration was able t…”
Smith: Tariff threats against Japan and Europe ultimately help China win
“Hurting Japan and Europe more than we hurt ourselves, but hurting both of us actually just lets China win. So it doesn't seem like a credible threat to me.”
Smith: Gross trade volume matters more than trade deficits
“People focus Obsessively on the trade deficits and surpluses, on the imbalances, on the net amount, but basically the more important effect is the gross, the total amount of exporting that we're able to do, you know, and so in that sense, trade between us and …”
Smith: US tariffs on China should target strategic industries, not clothing
“Not, not all the tariffs on, I would say strategic industries with China. I don't think we, you know, need tariffs on Chinese clothes because if China makes clothes, that's not a national security threat to us.”
Noah Smith: AI reasoning models hallucinate endlessly and gaslight users
“I mean, the reasoning models still go off in these crazy hallucinations that they'll never, like, admit were wrong, and will just, like, gaslight you infinitely on some crap it made up. Like, they'll still, like, just knowing truth from falsehood.”
Smith: Economic Sentiment Is Driven By Presidential Approval Rather Than Data
“A lot of people are just thinking politically, and when you ask them, how's the economy, they think, do I like the president?”
Smith: Pre-WWI Britain And Germany Prove Trade Does Not Prevent War
“The idea that trade builds bonds between countries, I believe, is an overrated idea. Because on the eve of World War I, Great Britain and Germany were each other's largest trading partners.”
Smith: US Needs An Export Promotion Agency Like Japan's JETRO
“Japan does a lot of things wrong, but it also does some things right. And it has an export promotion agency called Jetro. If you're a small Japanese company, you don't know how to sell stuff to Bangladesh. Jetro will hook you up with local resources and will t…”