The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Smith: Consumer Gains From Foreign Trade And Automation Are Functionally Identical
“In fact, in economic models, the gains from trade will look just like productivity. And there's a complete equivalence between those and a lot of models. So basically, if you have a robot to do something cheaply, you know, from the consumer's perspective, that…”
Noah Smith Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:22 a16z Podcast | Adjusting to Trade... and Innovation
Insight
Smith: Economists Focus on Equilibrium While Ignoring Transition Paths
“Economists often think to the very end and think about equilibrium and ignore the path for how you get there.”
Noah Smith Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:09 a16z Podcast | Adjusting to Trade... and Innovation
Insight
Smith: Access To Cheap Labor Reduces Incentives For Labor-Saving Innovation
“The natural implication of this is that basically the more cheap labor you get, the less incentive there is for labor-saving innovation, for entrepreneurs and technologists to invest in labor-saving innovation.”
Noah Smith Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:55 a16z Podcast | Adjusting to Trade... and Innovation
Insight
Smith: Real-world political redistribution relies on inefficient market distortions
“In the real world, redistribution happens via things like the minimum wage or, you know, like letting the AMA decide how many doctors there's gonna be. So, so redistribution in the real world is not always the most efficient thing.”
Noah Smith Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 38:26 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
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