why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bornstein: Chinese AI labs without commercial funding will rely on government backing
“If there's no source of economic, if there's no source of funding for Moonshot to continue to train models, like, we know where the funding will come from instead, and it's not, like, something we, right, you know, it's government and things that, like, are ac…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Bornstein: AI developer tools will increase, not shrink, software engineering headcount
“I think the best way to think about this is simply that we're going to have more developers. I think it's very unlikely that like we're going to shrink development teams because we have amazing new tools. Like that's just kind of not how these markets have wor…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bornstein: AI data access will be solved by scraping, not protocols
“These problems are rarely solved by defining a new protocol and just saying like, Hey, if we make it easy for people to give away their core assets, they'll just do it. You know, obviously, you know, that's very unlikely to work, but someone eventually will so…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bornstein: Low-latency interactive AI books are near technical reality
“I think we actually can do it now. Like, I think we're actually quite close to having, like, a low latency, fully interactive book, and things like Hidro are kind of the key piece.”