The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Selke: AI might plausibly never solve problems like P versus NP
“Even if AI get, you know, continues getting, like, exponentially better at math, like, it might, you know, plausible will never solve something like P versus NP.”
Mark Selke Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 1:02:50 Inside OpenAI’s Breakthroughs in Mathematical Reasoning
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Selke: Non-mathematicians will be able to use advanced math without experts
“The ability of someone who's not working on math is, like, their literal job all the time to, like, understand what's going on and, like, you know, learn about some of the mysteries they might have wondered about will go up quite a lot. Also, you know, if you'…”
Mark Selke Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 1:04:02 Inside OpenAI’s Breakthroughs in Mathematical Reasoning
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