The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levinson: Rapid economic growth and multiplying incomes will not recur
“The golden age was actually the exceptional time. It's not normal that economies grow at a rapid pace. It's not normal that incomes double or triple or quadruple in the matter of just a few years, and I don't think we should expect that to recur.”
Mark Levinson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:19 a16z Podcast | The Golden Era of Productivity, Retail, and Supply Chains
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2067
Levinson: China's growth will slow to a couple percent annually
“But China's not going to grow at 10% a year for the next Half century. It's becoming much more like a normal, mature economy in which the growth rate is a couple of percent a year, and that's all they're going to be able to expect.”
Mark Levinson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:31 a16z Podcast | The Golden Era of Productivity, Retail, and Supply Chains
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levinson: Ocean shipping consolidation will raise rates and reduce competition
“There are now probably three so-called alliances of container carriers that kind of dominate world trade. So we may be in an environment in which there are few enough players that they'll be able to have a better handle on prices, on shipping rates, and that w…”
Mark Levinson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:16 a16z Podcast | The Golden Era of Productivity, Retail, and Supply Chains
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levinson: Automation will not cause long-term mass unemployment
“I'm not too concerned about that. I'm pretty confident that we'll have ways in which people can earn livings.”
Mark Levinson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:08 a16z Podcast | The Golden Era of Productivity, Retail, and Supply Chains
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