The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chen: Competitive coding and math benchmarks predict future research success
“I mean, I think it is important to note that these evals like you know, IOI, AtCoder, IMO are actually real world markers for success in future research.”
Chen: Reasoning provides essential robustness for long-horizon AI agents
“Reasoning is core to this ability to operate over a long horizon, because, you know, you imagine kind of yourself solving a math problem, where you try an approach, it doesn't work, and, you know, you have to think about, you know, what, what's the next approa…”
Chen: AI labs risk second-place outcomes without strict strategic prioritization
“I think the danger is you end up like second place at everything and, you know, not like, you know, clearly leading at anything. So I think prioritization is important, right? And you need to make sure there's some things you're clear eyed on. This is the thin…”