The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mark Casey predicts no crypto altcoins will succeed long term
“I kind of don't think any of the altcoins are really gonna work long term, whether maybe the architecture isn't decentralized, or maybe Gary Gensler at the SEC will get his way and successfully argue legally that the altcoin is an unregistered security and nee…”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 18:38 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Casey: Alphabet will fix Gemini AI image generation problems and recover
“I bet it's gonna be okay. They have a little time to figure it out and correct the image generation.”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 6:44 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Assertion Supported
Mark Casey: Only 1.5 billion people globally have ever flown on an airplane
“Only a billion and a half people in the world have even been on an airplane. Like, every year, seventy-five million people get on a jet for the first time”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 15:44 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Casey predicts increasing performance dispersion among Magnificent Seven tech stocks
“Now I feel like we're in much more of a stock pickers kind of market where The Magnificent Seven aren't all magnificent this year. One's down a ton, Tesla. One's down a little, Apple. You know, I think there's going to be more separation in the market in gener…”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 3:24 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Casey: US e-commerce could reach 80% penetration via drone and robot delivery
“Here in the U.S. With drones and robot delivery systems, maybe we can get to 80%. So I think there's a long way to go.”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 20:03 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Capital Group bases its largest bonuses on eight-year rolling performance
“The way it works at Capital is the bonus you get for your results is you get a one-year, three-year, five-year, and eight-year rolling average bonus, but the eight-year is biggest by far”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 1:34 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Assertion Partly supported
Casey: 80% of South Korean diaper sales occur via e-commerce
“80% of diaper sales in that country are e-commerce.”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 19:54 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Assertion Supported
Casey: Many US retail categories remain at only 20% e-commerce penetration
“Even in the United States, like, a lot of the categories are still only 20% e-commerce”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 19:34 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
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