why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marc Rowan predicts disastrous returns for private equity enterprise software deals
“I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous. Because so much of exposure is to enterprise software, and this does not mean that enterprise software companies are going out of business. Far from it. It means that the prosp…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marc Rowan predicts blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline from AI
“What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of blue collar ascendancy and white collar decline.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rowan: Apollo assumes AI will replace or enhance every job
“We operate under the assumption that every job is going to be replaced or enhanced.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rowan: Five banks and five tech firms will dominate fixed income
“And so the same thing, by the way, is happening in the global fixed income market dominated historically by 10 large banks. It's about to be dominated by five large banks and five large tech companies. As much concentration as exists in the equity market, That…”
Prediction Held up
Rowan: Apollo investment grade private products will offer daily pricing by June
“And so, we're starting with our investment grade private suite of products, and we will be daily estimated value by June 30.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Rowan: Apollo will expand daily valuations across entire credit business by September
“This is about creating an ecosystem, and by the end of September, this will be across the entirety of our credit business.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Marc Rowan predicts credit spreads will widen from AI concentration
“I think spreads are gonna widen.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rowan: Industrial companies will stay private longer
“We, we're gonna see the same thing happen with industrial companies. Lots of industrial companies are just gonna decide to stay private longer for all the reasons we know.”
Prediction Held up
Rowan: Apollo is committed to establishing a second headquarters
“But we are committed to a second headquarters. We want access to a second talent pool.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marc Rowan predicts a surge in tech growth and finance partnerships
“The number of partnerships I believe that are going to Sprout up, whether it is the open AI ecosystem that they're building to be able to democratize their LLM, or is the anthropic ecosystem that is being built to democratize their way of doing things. I think…”