The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 128 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: AI doomer Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates bombing data centers
“The AI version of that is, you know, Eliezer Yadkowsky's version of that is we must bomb data centers. Like, if there's a data center that we think might take off, like, if the training run starts to go too well, like, we need to send in the Air Force and be b…”
Andreessen: American university faculty is radically politically polarized toward liberals
“It's an empirical observation that the faculty at American universities is now radically polarized on in, in one political direction. Radically, and we could also post a graph on this maybe, which is the numbers are like really radical. There's fields in which…”
Andreessen: Anthropic traced AI blackmail behavior to doomer training data
“Anthropics thread said they trace the, they trace some black male behavior to literally to the AI doomer literature that they, that, that it was in the training data.”
Andreessen: Federal government headcount reduced by up to 400,000
“The federal government is down. Estimates are as much as 400,000 workers in the federal government since Trump took office the second time.”
Andreessen: AI Costs Are Falling Much Faster Than Moore's Law
“If you look at what's happening with, ah, the price of AI is falling much faster than Moore's Law.”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Andreessen: LPs Are Shifting Capital Away From Mid-Sized VCs
“If you talk to the LPs now, increasingly they are focusing capital either on the scale platforms or they're focusing capital into, you know, this very specific kind of early stage seed angel strategy. And their interest in funding the department of store equiv…”
Andreessen: Less than 0.4% of CHIPS Act funding has been disbursed
“As of today, they have only literally dispersed 0.4% of the chip sacks money to any of these companies.”
Andreessen: Six Top AI Models Are Hitting a Performance Ceiling
“There is this very interesting asymptotic kind of thing that's happening right now where, you know, two years ago, there was one, you know, LLM that was like way out ahead of everybody else's, which was opening eyes. And sitting here today, there's like six th…”
Andreessen: Social Media Moderation Staff Have Migrated to AI Labs
“A lot of the people who did this kind of work, the sort of trust and safety or censorship work at the internet companies had just rotated and joined the AI companies.”
Andreessen: Valueless meme coin grew to $300M market cap in four days
“There's a meme coin with no underlying value that four days ago was worth nothing and is now worth three hundred million dollars, right?”
Andreessen: Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax starts at a $100M threshold
“So it is a threshold of a hundred million dollars.”
Andreessen: Games Are the Only Known Killer Apps for VR and AR
“Both VR and AR, like, it's crystal clear. The known killer apps right now are games, like, by a very wide margin.”
Andreessen: Incumbent universities control accreditation boards to block federal funding from competitors
“Guess who for those accreditation agencies, guess what they are composed of. They are composed of the incumbents. So the Northeast, you know, college, whatever accreditation council is like, literally it's board of trustees is all of the top Northeastern, you …”
Andreessen: Dodd-Frank expanded mega-banks and crushed new U.S. bank charters
“So what they did was they put in place a legal regime called Dodd-Frank and a bunch of other regulations that had the result, you know, sitting here 15 years later of the too big to fail banks are now much larger than they were before. So the exact opposite. Y…”
Andreessen: Google's AI image generator depicted 1940s Nazis as racially diverse
“Well, we learned something very valuable over the last few days with a new Google image generator, which is we learned out that the Nazis were actually quite diverse. It turns out there were lots of black and brown Nazis in stormtrooper uniforms in, in the str…”
Andreessen: AI detection software in schools will fail and falsely accuse students
“There are various attempts by companies to do like AI detectors now. You know, was this text written by AI and schools are actually starting to use that. And I think we can definitively, that will not work. Yeah. So what we can tell, there's already been cases…”
Andreessen: Up to 75% of academic research fails replication
“Depending by field up to 75% of the research in a lot of fields doesn't replicate.”
Andreessen: Up to 75 percent of published academic research fails to replicate
“Somewhere between like a third to on, on the low end, like you know, a quarter to a third and on the high end, like up to two thirds or three quarters of all published research doesn't replicate.”
Andreessen: AI will allow actors to scan themselves into 3D environments
“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow every screenplay to be rendered as video
“Most, look, oh, look, most people who write a Hollywood screenplay never see it produced. They never see it on screen. Right. And now all of a sudden, like all of those screenplays could be produced. Right. And turned into, you know, maybe not a movie that's c…”
Andreessen: Screenwriters will use AI to render full movies within years
“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”
Andreessen: Patients presenting GPT query results will force doctors to adopt AI
“And by the way, patients using GPT, if it hasn't started, it's going to start imminently. So, so, so, so the patients are going to show up with the results of GPT queries, and the doctors are going to have to respond to that, and so they're going to end up bei…”
Andreessen: Tech has yielded zero productivity growth in healthcare and education
“There are these giant sectors of the economy in which not only is there no productivity growth, like overall in both healthcare and education, there is no measured growth. There is no measured results in the application of technology in those fields, and in fa…”
Andreessen: U.S. new company creation has fallen for 40 years
“Generally what's happening is the rate of introduction of new companies in the economy has been falling for 40 years and is showing no sign of resuming. So there's more economic stability as measured by company creation and destruction than there has been in, …”
Andreessen: Software developers will earn higher salaries due to AI productivity
“If anything, actually, what's gonna happen is the programmers are gonna get, the programmers are gonna be higher paid because they're gonna be higher productivity.”
Andreessen: Cloud AI Supercomputing Access Will Cost $1 Within a Year
“You get what I think in a year is going to be very common. These sort of AI supercomputing chips with the AI algorithms in the cloud available to anybody for a dollar. Right, and so there's going to be this massive deflation of hardware cost on, on that side.”
Andreessen: Sequoia prioritized market size over founding team quality
“Sequoia was legendary in prioritizing market over team, right? And so Don Valentine has, if you go online and Google Don Valentine's talks, he talks a lot about how the key to success of a startup is to land yourself in a giant market. Like, Land yourself in a…”
Andreessen: All a16z general partners must be former founders or CEOs
“We decided that the general partners at Andreessen Horowitz would all be people who had been founders or CEOs or both of tech startups”
Andreessen: Adjusted for delayed IPOs, capital flowing into tech is flat
“In our deck we basically show if you adjust for the IPOs that aren't happening and the companies are staying private, it's basically, it's almost a flat amount of money actually flowing into tech.”
Andreessen: Ben Silbermann said 'Lean Startup' methodology would have killed Pinterest
“Pinterest is like a great, in fact, Ben Subberman is actually on the record as saying, had I read the Lean Startup book, I never would have done Pinterest, because it took us four years to figure it, If we had, if he had known about the Lean Startup thing, he …”
Andreessen claims big tech companies directly funded the SPLC
“Many of the big corporations and including big tech companies funded it directly.”
Andreessen: AI labs hire mathematicians and coders for reinforcement learning data
“Foundation model companies are, in some cases, they are hiring, they're actually hiring human experts. To generate new training data. So they're actually hiring mathematicians and physicists and coders to basically sit, and, you know, they're hiring human prog…”
Andreessen: Top AI models generate 40-page books on demand
“A combination of like GPT-Five Pro plus Deep Reasoning or like Rock IV Heavy, like the, you know, the highest end models like that. You know, they now basically generate 30 to 40 page, you know, essentially books on demand on any topic.”
Andreessen: U.S. productivity and economic growth permanently slowed after 1971
“Around, you know, 1971, basically the U.S. Economy permanently downshifted its growth rate. And both in terms of productivity growth, which of course measures technological transformation in the economy as well as economic growth.”
Andreessen: Europe funds Russia's war by importing gas after closing nuclear plants
“Europe is effectively funding the Russian war machine by purchasing Russian gas. And the reason they need to purchase Russian gas is because they stopped developing their own gas and they have been shutting down their own nuclear plants.”
Andreessen: AI doomer author Nick Bostrom has turned into a utopian
“Nick, Nick Bostrom has also has written a new book on how super intelligence is actually gonna make everything wonderful. So he's actually, he actually himself is, yes, he's off the doomer train. He's now back to being a utopian”
Andreessen: Germany is de-industrializing due to expensive energy costs
“Germany is currently de-industrializing. They're actually going backwards. They're actually shutting factories down, and the reason they're shutting factories down is because energy is too expensive.”
Andreessen: Al Gore never claimed to have invented the internet
“He never actually said he invented the internet. What he said is he took the lead in the Senate in creating the internet.”
Andreessen: US violent crime dropped as video games became popular
“Video games took off and actually, you know, for the next 30 years actual, you know, violent crime in the US actually dropped like a rock.”
Andreessen: Meta spends roughly $20 billion annually on VR
“Facebook's now in a position where Facebook's, you know, spending, you know, on the order of twenty billion dollars a year on VR, right?”
Andreessen: Western obesity rise inversely matches the decline in smoking
“The rise of obesity in Western societies is basically an exact inverse match to the graphs of the decline of smoking.”
Andreessen: Training state-of-the-art AI models costs $100M+
“To train us, you know, state of the art model, you're at a hundred million dollars plus. You know, to train a, you know, a big one, to train a small one, like the Databricks model that just came out. It's like on the order of ten million dollars.”
Andreessen: Generative AI boosts average workers more than high-skilled workers
“And at least the research, there's been a series of research studies that have been coming back that it, it's actually the uplift average is actually more significant than the uplift to the high skill level. And so actually what seems to be happening right now…”
Andreessen: Apple's market cap is larger than the entire German stock market
“I think Apple's market cap is bigger than the entire market cap of the German stock market.”
Andreessen: Sam Altman is seeking $7 trillion for proprietary chip fabs
“Today you see this with, you know, everything up to it, including, you know, Sam Altman going out to raise seven trillion dollars to build, you know, sort of proprietary chip fabs.”
Andreessen: Adjunct professors operate as academic gig workers making $40,000
“And the adjunct is somebody who is qualified to be a professor, has the PhD and all the equivalent training and so forth. But we're not gonna hire them, you know, almost like the gig workers of the academic field. We're not gonna hire them as full-time employe…”