The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: AI will expand entertainment and tech industry jobs and output
“On the other side of this kind of change, typically what happens is a much larger industry with like way more employment, way more output. And I, I'm a hundred percent convinced that's what's going to happen for sure in the tech industry and for sure in, in, i…”
Andreessen: Extreme AI infrastructure shortages will abate within five years
“NVIDIA has like, you know, the best position probably anybody's ever had in chips, but notwithstanding that, I find it hard to believe that there's going to be this level of pressure on infrastructure in five years.”
Andreessen: AI will eventually generate a full movie adaptation of Atlas Shrugged
“Maybe what we need is the AI system where you feed the novel and it makes the movie. You know, which, by the way, first, you know, now, now that I say that, like, for sure that's gonna happen.”
Andreessen: Training future frontier AI models will cost $1 billion
“We all think that the big models are going to end up costing a billion, you know, and up in the, in, in the future.”
Andreessen: University tuition will reach $1 million per student within 10 years
“We'll, we'll have a follow-up to this podcast, you know, five or 10 years from now, and it'll have crossed the million dollar mark, right? Per student.”
Andreessen: AI desktop software will generate full movies directly from screenplays
“Within some number of years here, short, I think relatively short number of years, you're gonna have a tool on your laptop, right, that basically is, is like, you work with it, you basically write your script, you know, kind of with AI, and then as you're writ…”
Andreessen: Producing full-length movies on laptops will be viable within five years
“It ought to be possible here within a couple years you know, to make entire full-length movies, you know, basically on your laptop, completely produced, you know, with, like, whatever actors superimposed into the thing, like, a couple years I don't know, I'd s…”
Andreessen: Wearable sensors will predict heart attacks within 5 to 10 years
“I think we'll have a full complement of medical grade sensors on, you know, on our bodies in a way that we have chosen to over the next five or 10 years. And I think we're, I think we'll get to the point where we're gonna be able to do things like predict hear…”
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
Andreessen: Hedge funds will buy and own autonomous car fleets
“I think self-driving cars are actually gonna be, I think they're actually gonna be owned by hedge funds. So I guarantee they're not going to want to take responsibility. So I think what's going to happen is hedge funds are going to spend a billion dollars and …”
Andreessen: Future top tech companies will almost certainly be new startups
“The expectation of Detroit is that 50 years from now the three big car companies will be Ford, GM, and Chrysler, right? The expectation of Silicon Valley is the opposite. Like we don't know who the big three tech companies are going to be, but they're almost c…”
Andreessen: GPT-2 scale AI models will run on smartphones within five years
“I think within five years, you're going to have models of this size on your phone.”