The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 207 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Andreessen: Mainstream media will permanently follow and react to viral posts
“If you're a television producer or if you're a news editor or whatever, like you can't possibly move your organization fast enough to stay ahead of these cycles. And so what you end up doing is you end up chasing them. And that's, and basically the role of mai…”
Marc Andreessen: Substack could reach 1,000x the legacy media industry's size
“I think Substack could be, like, a thousand times the size of the existing, like, content industry, whatever you want to call it, media news industry the, Collective, you know, kind of value.”
Marc Andreessen predicts massive turnover for public figures who sound like AI
“My new version of this, my, the new test I think is happening is what we might call the GPT test, which is, okay, if what somebody says is indistinguishable from chat GPT output, like not going to make it. Right. And then the more advanced version of the test …”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Andreessen: Without US manufacturing, Chinese robots will dominate the world
“If you don't do this, you're living in a world of Chinese robots everywhere.”
Andreessen: Public trust in traditional institutions will eventually hit zero
“The partisanship is actually holding up the reputation of institutions that otherwise, where their ratings would, their trust ratings would literally go to zero which I think is probably what happens in the fullness of time.”
Andreessen: The US and China are in a new bipolar Cold War
“And I at least believe the 21st century is basically going to be another version of that, and it so happens that we're back in a bipolar world, and we have the US and the Communist Party of China which is sort of, you know, USSR two point oh, and they have a m…”
Andreessen: Chinese drones used by US military could be subverted in war
“If we go to war with China over Taiwan or something crazy like that, like these drones could all become weapons that are used against our own soldiers.”
Andreessen: Proposed AI compute limits will entrench monopolies and destroy startups
“And so basically the regime that, you know, the government is threatening to put in place right now is going to, you know, by using this limit, they're going to basically enshrine the two or three companies that they believe are the only companies that matter …”
Andreessen: Unrealized gains tax threshold will drop to hit startup workers
“Inevitably this, the threshold is going to walk down and it's going to end. You just tell what's going to happen. It's going to go to 50 and then 20 and then five million and then one million. It's going to walk all the way down and it's going to hit, number o…”
Andreessen: Generative AI prompts will render manual pixel editing obsolete
“Because you'll live in this new world, and in the new world, you'll just tell the machine what you want for a photo, for an image, and it'll generate you as many options as you want, and it's generating you something that's better than you would have been able…”
Andreessen: Software startup costs will rise due to the Jevons Paradox
“And so the paradox here would be, yes, the cost of developing any given piece of software falls, but the re, the reaction to that is a massive surge of demand for software capabilities. And so the result of that actually is, although it even, it looks like sta…”
Andreessen: Centralized authorities will lose all public respect within ten years
“My guess, you know, we'll, we'll see what happens in more, more authoritarian societies, but my guess is in at least Western societies with relatively open. Access to information. It will just be impossible for, it will just be impossible for most centralized …”
Andreessen: Generative AI will easily replace white-collar email jobs within five years
“As the generative AI revolution hits white-collar work, you know, over the next five years, like, I suspect, I'll put it this way, a reason for bullishness on AI in the workplace is I suspect it may be easier than it looks to replace a lot of white-collar work…”
Andreessen: Unions and licensing boards will block AI in healthcare and education
“There's just so much sort of glue in the system now that, that that prevents change and it'll be very easy to sort of not have AI healthcare or you know AI education or whatever, because literally some combination of like, you know, doctor licensing, teacher b…”
Andreessen: Politicians will inevitably weaponize Central Bank Digital Currencies
“A central bank digital currency, I think, is kind of the ultimate ring of power. Like, it, it's very difficult for me to see a system like that getting built, and then politicians not using it to reward their friends and punish their enemies.”
Andreessen: Opponents of nuclear fission will immediately block nuclear fusion deployment
“I think what's going to happen is I look, I think we'll get fusion to work at some point. There's very smart people working on it. I think they'll get it there. I think the same forces and ideas and people that have prevented the deployment of nuclear fission …”
Andreessen: AI will expand entertainment and tech industry jobs and output
“On the other side of this kind of change, typically what happens is a much larger industry with like way more employment, way more output. And I, I'm a hundred percent convinced that's what's going to happen for sure in the tech industry and for sure in, in, i…”
Andreessen: U.S. executives tied to China will face severe political backlash
“The moral valence on China is shifting in real time right now on both sides of the political aisle in Washington, in the same way the moral valence on the Soviet Union shifted in the late 19 forties, early 19 fifties, and I think there are people who have been…”
Andreessen: Upcoming EU AI regulation will be devastating for Europe
“The EU is about to pass, you know, a law based on these ideas that I think is going to be very devastating for them.”
Marc Andreessen: AI will not kill humanity
“No, AI is not going to kill us all. AI is not going to murder every person on the planet.”
Andreessen sees 50/50 chance US government creates AI industry cartel
“And quite honestly, it's like fifty-fifty right now, whether or not the government's going to basically bless a cartel of a handful of companies to basically control AI for the next 30 years.”
Andreessen: Modern tech regulations will look as absurd as red flag laws
“Oh yeah, you know, they're putting in place laws that, you know, a hundred years from now, you know, the laws that are being put in place now on a lot of modern technology topics are going to look just as silly as red flag laws, but. Since nobody ever learns a…”
Andreessen: Traditional retail will basically be gone in 15 years
“So I think retail will basically be gone.”
Andreessen: Virtual reality will be 1,000 times bigger than augmented reality
“I think VR is going to be like a thousand times bigger.”
Andreessen: Silicon Valley will become more central despite remote work tech
“And so I think the valley is actually going to become more central, not less central, even though the technologies that we're building are making it possible for the world to distribute.”
Andreessen: The winning company in every industry will be a software company
“This version of the thesis is, in any industry as a result of this dynamic, in the long run, the winning company in the industry will be the best software company, right?”
Andreessen: Risky behaviors will be reclassified as biological rather than free will
“If you go out 10, 20, 30 years, You know, there are behaviors that we would obviously like to discriminate against that all of a sudden we may start reclassifying as non-free will based.”
Andreessen: Non-tech sectors will consume GDP and absorb almost all future jobs
“The kicker to the whole thing is if you have, the sectors where prices are crashing by definition, right, are shrinking as a percentage of the economy, and the sectors where prices are rising are growing as a percentage of the economy, and so what's actually h…”
Andreessen: China's state-directed industrial strategy will ultimately benefit the US
“I think in the long run, it counts as an advantage to us that the Chinese are so state directed on some of these things.”
Andreessen: Every pharmaceutical pill will eventually contain a biodegradable microchip
“I'm convinced in the future pills are all going to have chips in them. So for example, like every pill you take is going to have a biodegradable chip in it.”
Andreessen: Agenda-driven legacy media will never reverse or unwind
“Basically since then, my view is that, that sort of second mode of being you know, which is to, the sort of agenda-driven, you know, kind of really took over, which I think, and I think probably will never, never actually unwind.”
Andreessen: All future presidential candidates must go on Joe Rogan's podcast
“Do, do, do, do, do people running for president have to go on Joe Rogan, right? And you know, up until twenty-twenty-four, the answer was absolutely not. After twenty-twenty-four, the answer is 100% they have to.”
Andreessen: AI will be a superpower accessible to everyone on Earth
“We're entering a golden age, which is AI is going to be a superpower that everybody on the planet's going to have access to.”
Andreessen: Young AI-native workers will titanically outperform older peers
“The AI native kids are going to outperform the you know, their older Luddite peers, like gigantically, titanically.”
Andreessen: Elections turn on the economy and election-day viral meme panics
“Whatever is the thing that we think is the thing that's going to tilt the election today, It's gonna be a hundred social media meme cycles old. Like, nobody's gonna remember anything that's happening right now. The election is gonna turn basically on, like, wh…”
Andreessen: Unadapted legacy media outlets will all be run by private equity
“Essentially all of the remaining old media properties that don't figure out a way to adapt to the new world are gonna, you know, they're, you know, gonna get basically run by private equity and that'll be that.”
Andreessen: Supply-Side Tech Breakthroughs Will Dominate Investing for 30 Years
“Significant enough technology change, product change on the supply side unlocks much larger markets. And I think that's going to be, I mean, I think frankly, that's going to be like the single, like dominant trend in investing for like the next 30 years.”
Andreessen: AI market will split into supercomputers and small embedded models
“I tend to think the AI industry is going to be structured a lot like the computer industry ended up getting structured, which is you're going to have a small handful of basically the equivalent of supercomputers, which are these like giant, you know, kind of w…”
Andreessen: AI chips will be cheap and plentiful within five years
“And so it's just, it's like pretty likely in five years that, that, you know, AI chips will be, you know, cheap and plentiful, at least in comparison to the situation today.”
Andreessen: International Nations Will Create a Multi-Polar AI Chip Market
“The Koreans are gonna play here. For sure the Japanese are gonna play and then you know, the Chinese in a major way as well, and, you know, they have their own, you know, native chip ecosystem that they're building up, and so they're going to be many choices o…”
Andreessen: Anti-Defense Tech Employee Revolts Are Permanently Over
“That level of emotionality, like, it had its moment, and I think it's just over now, and I think we, and, you know, hopefully, you know, hopefully we, and hopefully a lot of others are just kind of, you know, back, back to, back, you know, in a lot of ways, ba…”