The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Mel Gibson's Passion sequel wouldn't be greenlit under Kamala Harris
“Mel Gibson finally got greenlit to do his sequel to Bachelor of the Christ, which is the resurrection movie, and which he's making right now. At least my friends in Hollywood are like, yeah, that never would have happened. Like, that never would have happened …”
Andreessen: Russia could not fund Ukraine war if nuclear wasn't banned
“Quite frankly, it's one of the reasons why Russia is able to do what it's doing in Ukraine is it has this flow of money from oil you know, which in, in a counterfactual universe where the world by now had cut over to civilian electric Like they wouldn't have t…”
Andreessen: 200 million people are alive today because of nuclear deterrence
“And so there are probably something like two hundred million people alive today who would not be alive had Oppenheimer not admitted The bomb.”
Andreessen: Oppenheimer and Teller prevented at least one world war
“By building bombs that could destroy the world, they prevented at least one, you know, major world war.”
Andreessen: Nixon's nuclear plan would have accelerated electric cars by decades
“It would, by the way, it would have gotten us to electric cars, you know, probably 3040 years faster. And would have completely separated us from strategic involvement in the, in, in the Middle East for energy.”
Andreessen: Invention of atomic bomb prevented World War III
“Sitting here in the year of 2023 and looking back I think we now know, I would say, quite conclusively you know, as much as you can know anything involving counterfactuals, I think we know, or I would argue that we know that the invention of the atomic bomb an…”
Andreessen: A modern internet would be completely decentralized with built-in cryptocurrency
“I think if we were to create the internet today, I think we would do it completely different. I think we would have it be completely decentralized and I think we would have cryptocurrency built in at the core. And I think it would be far more robust and would …”
Andreessen: Current AI capabilities were considered impossible 5 to 10 years ago
“We're dealing with magic here that we, I think, probably all would have thought was impossible five years ago, or certainly 10 years ago.”
Andreessen: Hollywood strikes would have occurred without AI
“There would have been a strike just on the basis of the changes to the streaming thing.”
Andreessen: Manhattan Project would have failed without Oppenheimer's parallel detonation strategy
“Which was very prescient and turned out to be the thing that really, I mean, without that, they would not have succeeded and We would be living in a different world today.”
Andreessen: Early academic tracking could have routed him to a machine shop
“I very easily could have ended up being tracked onto the vocational track, mostly kids I grew up with, you know, certainly. Could have as well. And so again, there's like an alternate universe, Marc Andreessen, that got tracked into a machine shop curriculum.”