The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 586 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Andreessen: Big Tech is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture against startups
“Quite honestly, I mean, part of what's happening is big tech is against us. There, there's a, there's basically a lot of the political issues now are a civil war inside the tech industry where, The big tech companies are lobbying very aggressively for what the…”
Andreessen: Vinod Khosla lobbied Congress to ban open-source AI
“Vinod has been lobbying to ban open source AI. And by the way, he denies that he's been doing this, but I saw him with my own eyes when the US Congressional China Committee came to Stanford I was in the meeting where he was with, you know, 30 20 or 30 congress…”
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Andreessen: Police Reform and Defund Movements Caused Massive Crime Waves
“All these, like, you know, crime policy reform, defund the police things, and that causes these massive crime waves, and then, of course, low-income and minority people get hit hardest by that”
Andreessen: Biden officials explicitly told a16z they planned to ban open-source AI
“They told us that explicitly. And yeah. And they told us exactly what you just said. They told us they're gonna ban open source. And when we challenged them on the ability to ban open source, because it's, you know, we're talking about, you know, math, you kno…”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Andreessen claims SPLC led debanking and cancellation programs for 15 years
“The SPLC specifically played a dominant role in the debanking and censorship and cancellation programs of the last 15 years.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Andreessen: Youth depression spikes are statistical artifacts driven by government benefits
“And so basically if you get paid or if you get like special dispensation in school for having, you know, psychological issues, all of a sudden you see a massive spike in those psychological issues. The countries that don't have that, the other Western countrie…”
Andreessen: A lot of AI doomerism is paid for by dark money
“We know that there's dark money in AI. Like a lot of the AI doomerism stuff is basically bought and paid for.”
Andreessen: Mainstream media will permanently follow and react to viral posts
“If you're a television producer or if you're a news editor or whatever, like you can't possibly move your organization fast enough to stay ahead of these cycles. And so what you end up doing is you end up chasing them. And that's, and basically the role of mai…”
Marc Andreessen: Substack could reach 1,000x the legacy media industry's size
“I think Substack could be, like, a thousand times the size of the existing, like, content industry, whatever you want to call it, media news industry the, Collective, you know, kind of value.”
Marc Andreessen predicts massive turnover for public figures who sound like AI
“My new version of this, my, the new test I think is happening is what we might call the GPT test, which is, okay, if what somebody says is indistinguishable from chat GPT output, like not going to make it. Right. And then the more advanced version of the test …”
Only Three Tech Employees Attended an Obama Border Official's Talk
“He went out and actually got a former director, ah, actually, he got, ah, a guy who had actually been in the Obama administration, as basically the head of border, the head of the border security in the Obama administration, to basically come in and give an ho…”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Andreessen: Without US manufacturing, Chinese robots will dominate the world
“If you don't do this, you're living in a world of Chinese robots everywhere.”
Andreessen: U.S. de-industrialization resulted from deliberate policies outlawing manufacturing
“We chose to de-industrialize through a set of explicit policy choices, you know, not, not least of which is You know, we made a lot of industrial activity illegal over time.”
Andreessen: Public trust in traditional institutions will eventually hit zero
“The partisanship is actually holding up the reputation of institutions that otherwise, where their ratings would, their trust ratings would literally go to zero which I think is probably what happens in the fullness of time.”
Marc Andreessen: Russian Facebook ad spend during 2016 election was only $80,000
“I think the result of it was, I think it was a result of 80,000 dollars of ad spend by the Russians in, in the relevant period of the election. It was like a total of like a 140,000, but during the actual run of the election, it was 80,000 dollars, and so the …”
Andreessen: Cambridge Analytica's psychometric ad targeting never actually worked
“It turned out that the method that was supposedly used by the Russians slash, you know, the Trump campaign to do the mind control, you know, basically like that, that method, I mean, we now know basically it never worked. Like it, the whole psych, psych, psych…”
Andreessen: US government launched a war to kill crypto
“Crypto, you know, became incredibly politicized, and the government, US government basically launched a full-on war against it, tried to kill it.”
Andreessen: The US and China are in a new bipolar Cold War
“And I at least believe the 21st century is basically going to be another version of that, and it so happens that we're back in a bipolar world, and we have the US and the Communist Party of China which is sort of, you know, USSR two point oh, and they have a m…”
Andreessen: CHIPS Act money is stalled due to added political requirements
“The money has not been dispersed because the deal keeps getting renegotiated to add new political requirements.”
Andreessen: AI doomer Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates bombing data centers
“The AI version of that is, you know, Eliezer Yadkowsky's version of that is we must bomb data centers. Like, if there's a data center that we think might take off, like, if the training run starts to go too well, like, we need to send in the Air Force and be b…”
Andreessen: Only 6% of Americans Share Ideology Built Into Social Media
“Even in the US, if you do the sort of, there's you know, sort of analysts that do the mapping of ideologies and political views in the US, it's only like six percent of the US population that agrees with the point of view that ended up getting built into socia…”
Andreessen: AI Labs Have Begun Purging Activist Safety Personnel
“Inside some of these companies, there's at least the beginning of a, you know, the beginning of a purge, retrenchment, rethink on, on, on these topics.”
Andreessen: Chinese drones used by US military could be subverted in war
“If we go to war with China over Taiwan or something crazy like that, like these drones could all become weapons that are used against our own soldiers.”
Andreessen: For every active US dockworker, another is paid to stay home
“For every doc worker in the U S actually works on the doc doc, there's actually somebody sitting, there's a doc worker sitting at home doing nothing, still getting paid.”
Andreessen: Proposed AI compute limits will entrench monopolies and destroy startups
“And so basically the regime that, you know, the government is threatening to put in place right now is going to, you know, by using this limit, they're going to basically enshrine the two or three companies that they believe are the only companies that matter …”
Andreessen: Unrealized gains tax threshold will drop to hit startup workers
“Inevitably this, the threshold is going to walk down and it's going to end. You just tell what's going to happen. It's going to go to 50 and then 20 and then five million and then one million. It's going to walk all the way down and it's going to hit, number o…”
Andreessen: California high-speed rail spent $10B with zero ground broken
“The California high-speed rail project. Which is now ten billion, it's over ten billion in spend with zero ground broken.”
Andreessen: Generative AI prompts will render manual pixel editing obsolete
“Because you'll live in this new world, and in the new world, you'll just tell the machine what you want for a photo, for an image, and it'll generate you as many options as you want, and it's generating you something that's better than you would have been able…”
Andreessen: U.S. manual manufacturing jobs will never return without technology leaps
“Those jobs are never coming back if there's not a step function change in technology and in the ability to use technology to get leverage. And to be able to transform those jobs and transform the economics, like they're just, they're never coming back. It does…”
Andreessen: Software startup costs will rise due to the Jevons Paradox
“And so the paradox here would be, yes, the cost of developing any given piece of software falls, but the re, the reaction to that is a massive surge of demand for software capabilities. And so the result of that actually is, although it even, it looks like sta…”
Andreessen: FDIC blocked private equity and bank bids to buy SVB
“There were both there were other big banks that wanted to buy SVB, and there were private equity firms that wanted to buy SVB, and basically do a private sector bailout requiring no, no taxpayer involvement, and the FDIC actually blocked those also.”
Andreessen: Centralized authorities will lose all public respect within ten years
“My guess, you know, we'll, we'll see what happens in more, more authoritarian societies, but my guess is in at least Western societies with relatively open. Access to information. It will just be impossible for, it will just be impossible for most centralized …”
Andreessen: Generative AI will easily replace white-collar email jobs within five years
“As the generative AI revolution hits white-collar work, you know, over the next five years, like, I suspect, I'll put it this way, a reason for bullishness on AI in the workplace is I suspect it may be easier than it looks to replace a lot of white-collar work…”
Andreessen: Anthropic is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture in D.C.
“Anthropic is very much in the group of kind of big tech, you know, kind of new incumbent big tech, you know, lobbying very aggressively for regulation and regulatory capture. In D.C., and so I think it's sort of an open question whether Amazon is going to pick…”