The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,119 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Andreessen: Big Tech is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture against startups
“Quite honestly, I mean, part of what's happening is big tech is against us. There, there's a, there's basically a lot of the political issues now are a civil war inside the tech industry where, The big tech companies are lobbying very aggressively for what the…”
Andreessen: Vinod Khosla lobbied Congress to ban open-source AI
“Vinod has been lobbying to ban open source AI. And by the way, he denies that he's been doing this, but I saw him with my own eyes when the US Congressional China Committee came to Stanford I was in the meeting where he was with, you know, 30 20 or 30 congress…”
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Andreessen: Police Reform and Defund Movements Caused Massive Crime Waves
“All these, like, you know, crime policy reform, defund the police things, and that causes these massive crime waves, and then, of course, low-income and minority people get hit hardest by that”
Andreessen: Social Reform Activists Are Driven by Greed and Power, Not Empathy
“They're neither empathetic nor, nor, nor are they suicidal, right? Rather quite the opposite. They're hateful and they're greedy. You know, they're sort of self-aggrandizing and gathering a power of resources for themselves.”
Andreessen: Biden officials explicitly told a16z they planned to ban open-source AI
“They told us that explicitly. And yeah. And they told us exactly what you just said. They told us they're gonna ban open source. And when we challenged them on the ability to ban open source, because it's, you know, we're talking about, you know, math, you kno…”
Andreessen: Paul Thomas Anderson's new film is 'Antifa the movie'
“Arguably, it is kind of salient to our times, because I think if you were to retitle the movie, you would just title it Antifa the movie. Like, it's, like, it's like a full-throated celebration of basically violent social change, violent social revolution, lik…”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Andreessen: White House officials claimed they could classify math to control AI
“And literally this was, this is verbatim. This is we did, we classified a whole entire areas of physics in the nuclear era and made them state secret. Like, of the, like, theoretical physics, science physics. We classified them and made them state secrets and …”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Andreessen: Corporate HR parallel control structures mirror Soviet governance
“I do think we, I would say, big companies, large institutions have backed into a system that actually is very reminiscent of how the Soviets used to run things with respect to this kind of parallel control structure.”
Andreessen: The EU is determined to place blanket bans on capitalism
“The EU seems absolutely determined to ban everything to sort of put a blanket ban on capitalism and within that ban AI and ban energy.”
Andreessen: Strongly supports the federal execution of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg
“Anyway, I am strongly pro the execution of the Rosenbergs.”
Andreessen: Consumers who use weak passwords should be held legally liable
“Consumers like who use bad passwords, like ought to be held liable for the consequence. Like consumers at some point, like at some point as an adult, you learn that when you leave your house at night, you lock the door, right? Consumers at some point are going…”
Andreessen: Companies Can No Longer Get Favorable Stories in Traditional Media
“There is no way to get to anything resembling a story that you're gonna like through the traditional media anymore. Like, it's just basically not possible.”
Andreessen: Legacy Media Has Lost Its Prestige and Respectability
“There's still this anxiety that people have, which is legacy media somehow is, like, where the respectability is, the prestige is. I don't believe that anymore, and I think it's very important for people to kind of get that out of their system.”
Andreessen claims SPLC led debanking and cancellation programs for 15 years
“The SPLC specifically played a dominant role in the debanking and censorship and cancellation programs of the last 15 years.”
Andreessen: Advocacy groups have financial incentives to preserve their enemies
“If your group's entire purpose for existing is to fight an enemy, then you need to make sure that that enemy exists. To do that, of course, you would fund them.”
Andreessen: Every major Silicon Valley company is overstaffed
“Every major Silicon Valley company is overstaffed.”
Andreessen: Corporations do not optimize for profitability
“The one thing that is the least true claim in the world is the companies are optimized for profitability, which is 100% not true.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Andreessen: Press hates AI with the fury of a thousand suns
“What is the, you know, vanguard of tech right now? And one of the things is AI. And so the, of course, the press hates AI with the fury of a thousand suns. And so the press is running this, you know, sustained, you know, kind of fear campaign on AI.”
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Andreessen: Online political fighting acts as a pressure valve preventing street violence
“My theory is the ability to directly participate in online virtual combat is shunting away a lot of the energy that in the past would have translated to street violence.”
Andreessen: Youth depression spikes are statistical artifacts driven by government benefits
“And so basically if you get paid or if you get like special dispensation in school for having, you know, psychological issues, all of a sudden you see a massive spike in those psychological issues. The countries that don't have that, the other Western countrie…”
Andreessen: A lot of AI doomerism is paid for by dark money
“We know that there's dark money in AI. Like a lot of the AI doomerism stuff is basically bought and paid for.”
Andreessen: Mainstream media will permanently follow and react to viral posts
“If you're a television producer or if you're a news editor or whatever, like you can't possibly move your organization fast enough to stay ahead of these cycles. And so what you end up doing is you end up chasing them. And that's, and basically the role of mai…”
Marc Andreessen: Substack could reach 1,000x the legacy media industry's size
“I think Substack could be, like, a thousand times the size of the existing, like, content industry, whatever you want to call it, media news industry the, Collective, you know, kind of value.”
Andreessen: East Coast newspapers are a biased information source for Washington
“A fair amount of our cons are actually aimed at Washington because again, it's like if you're a policymaker in Washington, and you're sitting there 3003 thousand miles away, and your entire information source is like East Coast newspapers that hate Silicon Val…”
Marc Andreessen predicts massive turnover for public figures who sound like AI
“My new version of this, my, the new test I think is happening is what we might call the GPT test, which is, okay, if what somebody says is indistinguishable from chat GPT output, like not going to make it. Right. And then the more advanced version of the test …”
Only Three Tech Employees Attended an Obama Border Official's Talk
“He went out and actually got a former director, ah, actually, he got, ah, a guy who had actually been in the Obama administration, as basically the head of border, the head of the border security in the Obama administration, to basically come in and give an ho…”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Andreessen: Tech inventors have no superior moral claim on their creations' consequences
“If you read the history of those people at that time, specifically people like Oppenheimer, you realize, yeah, the people who invent the technology have no special moral claim. They have no special predictive power for the consequences of the technology, and t…”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Andreessen: Hollywood creators avoided political themes fearing career destruction
“These are all the hot button issues that if you screwed them up, you, in, in Hollywood, you got your career destroyed, right? So if you said the wrong thing about COVID lockdowns or vaccines, if you said the wrong thing about Trump, if you said the wrong thing…”
Andreessen: Mel Gibson's Passion sequel wouldn't be greenlit under Kamala Harris
“Mel Gibson finally got greenlit to do his sequel to Bachelor of the Christ, which is the resurrection movie, and which he's making right now. At least my friends in Hollywood are like, yeah, that never would have happened. Like, that never would have happened …”
Andreessen: Without US manufacturing, Chinese robots will dominate the world
“If you don't do this, you're living in a world of Chinese robots everywhere.”
Andreessen: U.S. de-industrialization resulted from deliberate policies outlawing manufacturing
“We chose to de-industrialize through a set of explicit policy choices, you know, not, not least of which is You know, we made a lot of industrial activity illegal over time.”
Andreessen: European regulation has made AI illegal, pushing talent to the US
“Europe has basically made AI illegal. Like, they're regulating themselves to death. And so the smart AI people in Europe are moving to the US.”
Andreessen: Public trust in traditional institutions will eventually hit zero
“The partisanship is actually holding up the reputation of institutions that otherwise, where their ratings would, their trust ratings would literally go to zero which I think is probably what happens in the fullness of time.”